Kabam what are the chances of getting a particular 5* champion?

I have opened 10 basic 5* crystals & 3x featured 5* crystals. Out of 13 I have pulled 7x science, 5x mutant & 1x tech, so my pulls roughly equate to 54% science, 38% mutant & 8% tech.

Currently there are 72 champions in the basic crystal & although there are not equal numbers of each class, there isn't massively more of one class than another.

If there was an equal chance of getting each champ surely I should have pulled champs from skill, mystic or cosmic? Kabam, is there not an equal chance of getting each champ? Or is there a great chance of getting a meh champ & most of them are science?

Comments

Drummer16

RNG man...it seems there is some formula that they use to determine the next pull. Some people are very lucky, and others are not at all. I think that drop rates for "random" items in a game where money is being exchanged should be required to post the percentages for drop rates. Some countries are looking at this as a form of gambling and considering outlawing the purchase of items that have a "chance to get the good prize".

I am sure we will see regulation to deal witht his in the coming years as it gets more and more popular.

Grimmbear

Thats not how odds or probabilities work. It's random(or at least as random as computer generated rng can be), so you just have been getting random champs.

Player1994

99.99% u will get a trash champ that's what they call random

to be honnest that's the most faaar away thing from being random in the game.
i just openned 10 5* too and all i got was **** and the celebration thing got me venom 5*
it's random when a noob oppens star lord in one crystal and u stuff like iron patriot she hulk in 10

ViperKingV

Customer Service has messaged me several times, that there are, unspecified“ In-game factors “, that effect Crystal spin drop rates. Kabam claims that this is done to maintain the rarity and value of in-game rewards, while offering players a chance to win them.
So Crystal drop rates are not random by any reasonable definition of the word. The outcome may be randomly generated,from the possible results, that Kabam’s algorithms have determined, will generate the highest revenues from the player base.

DrZola

I love the RNG Chorus that always chimes in on these types of threads. I would suggest that, unless you’ve actually seen the code used in this game, you’re really not sure what type of RNG or other methodology Kabam uses. Of course the moderators attest it is random because that’s what they’ve been told. While I don’t believe there are wildly divergent drop rates, I tend to think it’s something a little less than actually “random.”

If it’s simply the same, equal chance of each and every champ across all instances and for all players at all times, then that’s something I would classify as truly random. And if that’s the case, I see no reason to keep it a secret. Publish drop rates, eliminate conspiracy theories and threads once and for all. It won’t happen, but that’s what I would do.

Dr. Zola

Dave_the_destroyer

@DrZola If Kabam published details of the RNG and showed that it is completely random (I'm certain it is) that is not the same as publishing drop rates, you know that? Why would a company that wants to make money from this game then show us all how bad the chances are for getting something we want? They wouldn't, I know I wouldn't

To the OP : Your example proves how random the rng is. Every pull you have the same chance of getting any of the 72 champs, there is no reason to think these would be split equally on each class. That would actually show it wasn't random

NDK13

Rng can be predicted as well as scam others for their money as done by csgolotto

MisterNiceGuy

I have played several games like this. There's really no reason for them to share RNG info at this point as I haven't experienced any other game that has shared that info. The players who question the drop rates are typically the players not getting what they want.

OP got mostly science champs with his small sample of pulls. There are prob other players in the game who got mostly mystic or mutant etc etc but they just haven't posted about it.

DrZola

@Dave_the_destroyer Details of their RNG isn't what should be published. Actual probabilities around loot boxes should. Heck, I get odds on winning Visa gift cards when the car dealerships in my area mail a promotion that doesn't require me to spend a dime. I get them on cereal boxes for prizes, sealed bobblehead packs my kids buy, practically everything that isn't a guaranteed item. Why video games are exempt from some semblance of this type of quantitative disclosure is a mystery to me. As for changing behavior, I honestly doubt rate disclosure would stop players from spending, opening, hoping...

@MisterNiceGuy A good point, and I agree that most who gripe about RNG do so because they didn't get good outcomes---however, the question isn't whether other games share rates but rather whether they should share or should be required to share rate data when it comes to loot boxes.

Let me reiterate what I said earlier: it won't happen, but it is what I would do.

DZ

SgtSlaughter78

Dr Zola nailed it. I am of the belief that it’s not random as in there is one of each champion on a wheel and you can literally get any of them, that is the wheel with all of the champions on it once and can can stop anywhere. I think it’s random to an extent but within a smaller subsection that is defined by certain parameters.

If it was properly fully random then I think they would be more transparent. But I can sort of understand from their point of view why they would need to exercise some level of control, if you hit 2 or 3 god tier 5*s right at the start you are able to cut through more content and less likely to spend.

The irony for me is, I’ve spent on this game, and I’ve grinded on this game, quite a bit, but the consistent demoralising 5* pulls has led me to question my spending for the first time.

Disclaimer - these words are simply representative of my thoughts and in no way an allegation against Kabam, or to be taken as fact. Miike closed a thread of mine on this topic last week so just being clear.

lozzadude

I have opened 17x 5* crystals now. Here's the breakdown. Crazy science weighting!!

Science x10 (59%)
Mutant x5 (29%)
Mystic x1 (6%)
Tech x1 (6%)
Skill x0 (0%)
Cosmic x0 (0%)

adamjakubi

Not a coder, so, take this with a grain of salt; could an app be built that targets the rng code of a particular game? Not to skew or distort but to track? Then users could download the app which could track individual drop rates... the individual then submits those stats back into the app so that the wider community has a solid pool of data that accurately outlines drop rates... that could tell you the rarity of individual champs, the rarity of pulling 4 stars out of phc, the likelihood of getting a particular boost or even if there is a dominant class?

GroundedWisdom

Pretty sure that would be data mining and a violation of TOS.

adamjakubi

There has to be transparency some how... and as someone who works with legal contracts for a living; TOS like this are usually full of ****... they aren’t legally binding or enforcable even if ‘agreed’ by the user... Just because they have a line that says you can’t doesnt actually mean you can’t...

gohard123

lozzadude wrote: »

I have opened 17x 5* crystals now. Here's the breakdown. Crazy science weighting!!

Science x10 (59%)
Mutant x5 (29%)
Mystic x1 (6%)
Tech x1 (6%)
Skill x0 (0%)
Cosmic x0 (0%)

lol that is a tiny sample

DuMonU

I have opened 35 5* crystals, well spread out between classes, so quite random I believe. The number of shite champs I have though is a whole other story...... so there might be a skewed drop rate there though!!! Out of 25 total champs not an "A" champ to be seen.
Science x4 (11%)
Mutant x6 (17%)
Mystic x4 (11%)
Tech x5 (14%)
Skill x8 (23%)
Cosmic x8 (23%)

colbyscipio987

They say you have a 20% chance for a featured 5 star crystal. That is complete BS because all you see is people getting LC, HB, Antmans, IP and thats complete BS theres like 30-40 5 stars and what are the odds of getting the same champ like every else 99% chance

Woody_feder

I have had the total opposite opened 10 crystals and I have 0 science 1 mystic 1 tech 2 mutant 3 skill 3 cosmic

Raganator

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

They say you have a 20% chance for a featured 5 star crystal.

Nobody but the community has ever said that.

SpiritOfVengeance

Most people have gotten the worst pulls and still do often get really bad pulls.

colbyscipio987

Raganator wrote: »

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

They say you have a 20% chance for a featured 5 star crystal.

Nobody but the community has ever said that.

You sir must be don't watch BG

Thatweirdguy

The RNG fanboys love to **** on these threads. If it is indeed random with no "in game factors" affecting drops then I do not see the reason for secrecy. State that the 5 star basic crystal gives you a 1/72 chance of landing an AA. Doesn't matter if you are a spender or new player etc... Maybe Apple regs will push this stuff out of the darkness.

Anecdotally I personally opened 15 of the FGMC 2017 crystals. I got a variety of 3*'s and 2 4* KP's. In a true world of RNG the probabilities of that must be astronomical considering that crystal had 3,4 & 5* options in it.

Solswerd

DrZola wrote: »

I love the RNG Chorus that always chimes in on these types of threads. I would suggest that, unless you’ve actually seen the code used in this game, you’re really not sure what type of RNG or other methodology Kabam uses. Of course the moderators attest it is random because that’s what they’ve been told. While I don’t believe there are wildly divergent drop rates, I tend to think it’s something a little less than actually “random.”

If it’s simply the same, equal chance of each and every champ across all instances and for all players at all times, then that’s something I would classify as truly random. And if that’s the case, I see no reason to keep it a secret. Publish drop rates, eliminate conspiracy theories and threads once and for all. It won’t happen, but that’s what I would do.

Dr. Zola

Strange to call out the "RNG Chorus" for their comments not having the true cold hard facts to back up their POV...considering the "it's all rigged/Kabam is cheating Chorus" comments are based on the same amount of information.

I am not trying to argue one POV over another here...some of the posts from the RNG Chorus are not about defending Kabam, or claiming 100% knowledge of drop rates....some of them are in response to someone posting their last 5-10 crystal openings and making declarative statements that it "cannot possibly be fair RNG" when mathematically it is completely possible it is RNG. Not making the argument to defend Kabam...just making the argument to defend math.

TBJ1118

I’ve opened 485k worth of 5* shards. I’ve only got 1 cosmic unduped champion, and 2 mutant ones. May be random, just as much as my 2/17 for featured

Solswerd

In regards to me above post...here is the TL:DR version:

If you post that 2+2=7....I do not care why you are posting 2+2=7 or if your suspicions are correct, but I will point out that 2+2 does not equal 7

MarzGroove

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reporting_bias

MarzGroove

To answer the OP's question, the chance of pulling a particular 5* champ from the 5* basic crystal is 100 divided by the number of champs in the basic pool.

Raganator

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

Raganator wrote: »

colbyscipio987 wrote: »

They say you have a 20% chance for a featured 5 star crystal.

Nobody but the community has ever said that.

You sir must be don't watch BG

BG is part of "the community".

mum_m2

mine is similar for cosmic champions 10 total 5*s openings

4 Cosmics (Venom x2, Venompool, Angela)
4 Skill (Elektra, BP, Agent V)
1 Tech (Hulkbuster)
1 Mystic (Guilly)
1 Science (Yellow Jacket)

Not really complaining but it's just no way that it's pure RNG.

Acanthus

'Bout three fiddy