Paragon crystal odds

Demigod_AppleDemigod_Apple Member Posts: 3 ★
in Bugs and Known Issues
Not sure if it’s a bug but out of the 18 paragon crystals i’ve opened i’ve opened 15 four stars in total which is a 0.003% chance of happening (equivalent of flipping tails on a coin 15 times in a row) and the other 3 only being 5 stars. Either i’m extremely unlucky or there’s a bug because statistically it’s almost impossible given the other factors, especially to not have at least pulled 1 six star at all. Additionally I expected more as I purchased the paragon crystal bundle in the unit store and it almost exclusively contained 4 stars…

Comments

  • PandaMan20PandaMan20 Member Posts: 10 ★
    Those odds are absurd! Surely this has to be a bug??
  • DL864DL864 Member Posts: 1,089 ★★★
    Open 70 myself maybe 6 6*;and no 7*
  • gazbeagazbea Member Posts: 78 ★
    Opened 5
    - 2x 4*
    - 1x 5*
    - 6* Angela
    - 7* Bishop
  • Chris_118Chris_118 Member Posts: 28 ★
    Demigod_Apple said:

    Not sure if it’s a bug but out of the 18 paragon crystals i’ve opened i’ve opened 15 four stars in total which is a 0.003% chance of happening (equivalent of flipping tails on a coin 15 times in a row) and the other 3 only being 5 stars. Either i’m extremely unlucky or there’s a bug because statistically it’s almost impossible given the other factors, especially to not have at least pulled 1 six star at all. Additionally I expected more as I purchased the paragon crystal bundle in the unit store and it almost exclusively contained 4 stars…


    It’s not the equivalent of 15 tails in a row, it’s the equivalent of 15 tails in 18 coin flips. Still very unlikely (~0.3%) but not outside the realm of possibility. About 1 in 320 people will be that unlucky. This is not taking into account the 3 5 star pulls, I just considered them 3 non-4 star pulls.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 22,245 ★★★★★
    Demigod_Apple said:

    Not sure if it’s a bug but out of the 18 paragon crystals i’ve opened i’ve opened 15 four stars in total which is a 0.003% chance of happening (equivalent of flipping tails on a coin 15 times in a row) and the other 3 only being 5 stars. Either i’m extremely unlucky or there’s a bug because statistically it’s almost impossible given the other factors, especially to not have at least pulled 1 six star at all. Additionally I expected more as I purchased the paragon crystal bundle in the unit store and it almost exclusively contained 4 stars…

    Crystal drop rates aren't cumulative. It's 40% per crystal to pull a 4* champion.
  • ChiliDogChiliDog Member Posts: 900 ★★★
    Why is the lottery called a tax on stupid people?
  • JeancrbJeancrb Member Posts: 227 ★★
    I opened a bit more than 30, only 4* and 5*, I'm in the same situation I think we are just very unlucky
  • leftleft Member Posts: 33 ★
    Same man, I opened like 70 crystals, zero 7*s, six 6*, rest all 4,5*
  • KeltanKeltan Member Posts: 526 ★★
    20 crystals
    4 6*
    8 5*
    8 4*
  • Manup456Manup456 Member Posts: 891 ★★★★
    I opened a lot of these crystals for the event and no 7* but you don’t have to open these after the event since they are not worth $10 a crystal.
  • JeancrbJeancrb Member Posts: 227 ★★
    Jeancrb said:

    I opened a bit more than 30, only 4* and 5*, I'm in the same situation I think we are just very unlucky

    Edit: I opened 15 more and finally got 2 6* (captain america classic and SW) but still no 7 stars
  • Duzgshri_14Duzgshri_14 Member Posts: 9 ★
    Ive opened 2 paragon crystals and got 1 5* 1 4*
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