Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008 · 2017-12-21T16:58:46+00:00

Any comments on this?<br/><br/><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure" rel="nofollow">https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure</a><br/><br/>

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

DrZola

DNA3000 wrote: »

DrZola wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Nonsense. The arguments that crystals purchased with units do not count is silly.

Don’t disagree with you. That would be a highly legalistic argument. But there are a lot of legalistic distinctions that are the law, both in the US and abroad. And here we aren’t talking about a court of law, but rather terms between two private companies. They can agree that “purchased” means anything.

Dr. Zola

Apple can also change the terms at any time to close any loophole the moment any game company attempts to invoke it. I think it is highly unlikely that Apple will allow any game company to loophole their way around the requirement, because there's no benefit to Apple to allow every game company to get around their new requirement. Someone very high up the food chain at Apple has decided it is better for Apple in the long run if they are seen as policing this effectively. Given Apple's history in the past with creating and then enforcing new App store guidelines, there's no reason to believe this is just a paper tiger. Apple doesn't tend to fold paper tigers.

I hope you are correct. And I hope any decision to police the issue is a firm step toward regulation in one form or another. That something operating in essentially the same space as gambling has been able to escape oversight has always seemed odd to me.

Dr. Zola

CoatHang3r

@DNA3000 you shoukd know all this is directly and exclusively under payments and in app purchases . And that none of it is under content or performance. It’s related directly to the exchange of money for in game items.

unknown

This content has been removed.

unknown

This content has been removed.

CoatHang3r

Haji_Saab wrote: »

Spiderman Unlimited kept the rates secret. Then they had a rogue employee who released the rates and the results were interesting.

It showed that every spidey had a different chance to drop whereas people thought it was same for everyone. I suspect something similar but on a more complex level going on here.

Won’t be surprised if odds are influenced by longevity of the account or total spend or amount of break taken or time of the day!

I would be surprised as Kabam has continually and repeated stated the odds are the same for everyone and every hero unless otherwise stated.

Hammerbro_64

Lmao so u guys have noticed there is a timer on the PHC and gold crystals right? What other interesting thing has come up about crystals?(it’s what this thread is on) The Apple loot box drop rate reveal! Connect those two, and you get Kabam covering up a possible scam and actual lies. (Just a theory)

So, has anyone gotten more that 2400 from a gold crystal? I have gotten more than that maybe 3x in my full seasoned summoner life (Summer of ‘15). Sounds pretty rigged right? Yeah I know that 0.0000000000000000001% chance for 5k gold is still a “chance”, but what if it was only under certain circumstances? I know for a FACT that that is how PHC work to some degree. That isn’t chance if it says there is a chance for every crystal if other factors infuence drop rates.

PHC have sucky luck, but literally every noob has one (minus Howard). It’s because of not logging in for a few months then opening one. I’ve done this with a second account and it worked first try. That’s not RNG, that’s a scam to get people hyped about it. There is no way that an account that opened ONE PHC gets a 4* when my main has opened thousands and gotten 5.

“Hammer, we all know it’s rigged! What’s ur point?”

With Apple making developers reveal the drop rates, almost certainly under a certain time frame, they could be expiring the PHC and gold crystals because our definite knowledge of its rigged nature when it says “a chance for a 4*” when there isn’t could lead to lawsuits from more serious players/rich bums who enjoy this game and spend way to much on it. It’s expiring because they are making honest drop rates. That means I can open PHC with confidence I have a chance to actually pull one.

So what do u guys think? Is it stupid, am I onto something, or am I about to get banned for maybe exposing Kabam?(pls don’t ban me, I love the game but it’s gotta be fair)

chev327fox

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Haji_Saab wrote: »

Spiderman Unlimited kept the rates secret. Then they had a rogue employee who released the rates and the results were interesting.

It showed that every spidey had a different chance to drop whereas people thought it was same for everyone. I suspect something similar but on a more complex level going on here.

Won’t be surprised if odds are influenced by longevity of the account or total spend or amount of break taken or time of the day!

I would be surprised as Kabam has continually and repeated stated the odds are the same for everyone and every hero unless otherwise stated.

Was it ever said by a Kabam dev or official spokesmen (like community manager ect)? Just curious if was only said by technically third parties like forum moderators or customer support?

This will be very fascination to watch unfold for sure. I think 90% of us think this is good news as we all would like to know (even thought we know it is low for what we want, knowing would actually helps us better attune our reaction/response in my opinion).

chev327fox

Hammerbro_64 wrote: »

Lmao so u guys have noticed there is a timer on the PHC and gold crystals right? What other interesting thing has come up about crystals?(it’s what this thread is on) The Apple loot box drop rate reveal! Connect those two, and you get Kabam covering up a possible scam and actual lies. (Just a theory)

So, has anyone gotten more that 2400 from a gold crystal? I have gotten more than that maybe 3x in my full seasoned summoner life (Summer of ‘15). Sounds pretty rigged right? Yeah I know that 0.0000000000000000001% chance for 5k gold is still a “chance”, but what if it was only under certain circumstances? I know for a FACT that that is how PHC work to some degree. That isn’t chance if it says there is a chance for every crystal if other factors infuence drop rates.

PHC have sucky luck, but literally every noob has one (minus Howard). It’s because of not logging in for a few months then opening one. I’ve done this with a second account and it worked first try. That’s not RNG, that’s a scam to get people hyped about it. There is no way that an account that opened ONE PHC gets a 4* when my main has opened thousands and gotten 5.

“Hammer, we all know it’s rigged! What’s ur point?”

With Apple making developers reveal the drop rates, almost certainly under a certain time frame, they could be expiring the PHC and gold crystals because our definite knowledge of its rigged nature when it says “a chance for a 4*” when there isn’t could lead to lawsuits from more serious players/rich bums who enjoy this game and spend way to much on it. It’s expiring because they are making honest drop rates. That means I can open PHC with confidence I have a chance to actually pull one.

So what do u guys think? Is it stupid, am I onto something, or am I about to get banned for maybe exposing Kabam?(pls don’t ban me, I love the game but it’s gotta be fair)

Kabam has already said that is a glitch they were not aware of that has to do with the gifting event (there is not supposed to be a timer there).

Hammerbro_64

chev327fox wrote: »

Hammerbro_64 wrote: »

Lmao so u guys have noticed there is a timer on the PHC and gold crystals right? What other interesting thing has come up about crystals?(it’s what this thread is on) The Apple loot box drop rate reveal! Connect those two, and you get Kabam covering up a possible scam and actual lies. (Just a theory)

So, has anyone gotten more that 2400 from a gold crystal? I have gotten more than that maybe 3x in my full seasoned summoner life (Summer of ‘15). Sounds pretty rigged right? Yeah I know that 0.0000000000000000001% chance for 5k gold is still a “chance”, but what if it was only under certain circumstances? I know for a FACT that that is how PHC work to some degree. That isn’t chance if it says there is a chance for every crystal if other factors infuence drop rates.

PHC have sucky luck, but literally every noob has one (minus Howard). It’s because of not logging in for a few months then opening one. I’ve done this with a second account and it worked first try. That’s not RNG, that’s a scam to get people hyped about it. There is no way that an account that opened ONE PHC gets a 4* when my main has opened thousands and gotten 5.

“Hammer, we all know it’s rigged! What’s ur point?”

With Apple making developers reveal the drop rates, almost certainly under a certain time frame, they could be expiring the PHC and gold crystals because our definite knowledge of its rigged nature when it says “a chance for a 4*” when there isn’t could lead to lawsuits from more serious players/rich bums who enjoy this game and spend way to much on it. It’s expiring because they are making honest drop rates. That means I can open PHC with confidence I have a chance to actually pull one.

So what do u guys think? Is it stupid, am I onto something, or am I about to get banned for maybe exposing Kabam?(pls don’t ban me, I love the game but it’s gotta be fair)

Kabam has already said that is a glitch they were not aware of that has to do with the gifting event (there is not supposed to be a timer there).

But maybe it isn’t!!! 0.o maybe it’s kabam covering their butts 🤷🏻‍♂️

Muzz

Sad but true, I'm afraid. I can prove it. First, let me say that I'm very impressed with the maturity of the conversation above. I agree that transparency would be a wonderful thing. However, those who say this won't change much are probably correct, unfortunately. I read the guidelines on the Apple site and it's pretty clear the rules apply to "purchases". There is zero mention of in game currency because they can't see the transactions. Kabam has been working around similar rules for years now. I don't even consider it a work around, really. Apple has a $99 transaction limit for in-app purchases. Developers have been using in game currency to sell things that cost more than $99 for a long time. Like say, 10,000 units for some tiered crystal shard offers? By many accounts in the comments above above, that would be a violation. It's not. Neither is hiding the drop rates of made up things bought with fake currency or even being so unethical as to change those rates from player to player. After studying the terms, my expectation is Kabam will only have to make a few small changes to comply as follows:

1) Either disclose the drop rates of crystals sold for real currency (like the daily class offer) or remove them from the offers. I hope they can't just say "you're buying this other stuff and it comes with a free crystal" to get around that one.
2) Changes to the subscription language will likely force Kabam to remove the requirement of logging in every day to claim the content or lose it. Apple made it pretty clear that you should get what you pay for without doing anything besides pay for it.
3) Either stop selling consumables that are limited by how many we can hold at a time, or remove the limits so they don't expire. Apple was also clear on that one. If you buy it, it should not expire. You paid for it, so it's yours to use when you decide to use it. I think we all share the same feelings about this and would much prefer that Kabam just does away with stash limits all together. The recent increase for T4CC was just a band aid to buy some time to figure it all out.

As for disclosing crystal drop rates for crystals bought with units or earned with shards, I think that's only going to happen if Kabam chooses to. They won't and I don't blame them. I also don't see Apple having any say in the matter. They have no liability at that point anyway. Yes, in a just world, Kabam would share this information for ethical reasons or Apple would force them to by refusing to publish the game, but neither of them have any other reason or requirement to do so. For the record, I hope I'm wrong. I feel like Kabam has made some fantastic positive changes over the last few months and I'm really starting to feel like they care about us, the players. It will be very interesting to see what changes come from this turn of events. Till then...

Keep grinding,
Muzz

Cloutlordree

I'm lost

DrOctavius2_2

Apple just trying to distract attention from their own greed of slowing everyone’s iPhone based on battery so people keep updating

DrOctavius2_2

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

DrZola wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Nonsense. The arguments that crystals purchased with units do not count is silly.

Don’t disagree with you. That would be a highly legalistic argument. But there are a lot of legalistic distinctions that are the law, both in the US and abroad. And here we aren’t talking about a court of law, but rather terms between two private companies. They can agree that “purchased” means anything.

Dr. Zola

This is Apple's rule right now. If Kabam tries to mess around and find a loophole they risk getting the boot from the app store. That is risk they will not take. I suspect that they will have no choice but to fully disclose and find a new way to make money or improve drop rates.

Agreed, they will be forced to comply.

Speeds80

@CoatHang3r have kabam actually said the drop rates of each champ is the same? I have no doubt they are for players and I don't really buy into the conspiracy that spenders get better or worse pulls, but as far as I was aware kabam use a very very complicated algorithm and I think this information is going to be possibly not as simple as we all think, I've long Thought and not really thought it unusual that the better champs are rarer and the reason there are still lots on the game is because of feature crystals, side notefrom data collection it's pretty well accepted that phcs are about 2% 4* and 10% 3* pulls once you're out of the beginner bracket, I think features are about 20% from said data , probably the only debate this will clear up is whether some champs are rarer, and yeah I'd say kabam will pull crystals out of real money purchases, if apple agree that it is just real money purchases, basically it looks like it's up to apples legal team to further clarify that

Dr_ARCHer

We need to distinguish between “random”and “odds”. If we take an unbiased dice, the chance of getting a 1 is random, and the odds are 1/6. If I change the 6 of this dice into a 1, the chance of getting a 1 is still random, but the odds are now 1/3.

DrOctavius2_2

Hope they also disclose what chance people have of getting a science gem from 5* awakening crystal, seems to be very high for some “reason”

unknown

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phillgreen

It will kill smaller games with less developed tribal knowledge, we all know the drop rates here are sucky and the people spending will spend regardless of the printed odds. At the end of the day while I am in favour of disclosing the drop rates it really will have no bearing on anything other than ending the conjecture.

Omni

DNA3000 wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

This is really a gigantic win for gamers. I am very impressed with Apple on this one

Not for us if it drastically changes the in game economy in a negative way

I strongly disagree. This definitely does have the potential to have a big impact on this, and every other game with loot crates. Even if it looks like a negative on the surface, I view this as an unquestionable positive

Kabam makes x amount of their money off of loot crystals. If they now disclose drop rates and it changes people’s purchasing pattern and less revenue comes in they will have two choices.

Strip the game team down to keep their profit target or change the economy of the game to entice people to purchase other in game items directly. If you thought a 5 star crystal was expensive now, wait until they figure out how much to charge to keep their same profit margin.

If that's the cost of having informed choice, then I'm willing to pay it. Or to be more to the point, if the cost of making that extra money is hiding information from the players, then that's not a cost I would be willing to pay.

This is mostly hypothetical. Lotteries function extraordinarily well publishing their odds. Most people can't understand probability anyway, and half the people who currently complain about the odds won't believe the published odds. People will post videos of twelve openings that "prove" the published odds are wrong. Publishing the odds won't necessarily change everyone's behavior much. Powerball has a net rate of return that makes MCOC crystals look like malfunctioning ATMs, and they bring in more money in a day than MCOC probably makes in a month.

I still believe in publishing them. Maybe only a fraction of the players can actually make good use of that information. But once you eliminate the willfully ignorant, the conspiratorially opaque, the mathematically illiterate, and the just plain foolish, you still have a large number of players that I believe should be given the best possible chance to make an informed decision with the best possible information.

Oh I agree completely. But at some point kabam has to decide if it’s worth it to keep the game running or not and I’m afraid this may be the straw that breaks the camels back. I hope it isn’t though

Sky

Why is everyone acting like we don't know the drop rates? What don't you know the drop rate of? PHC? 1% for a 4*, 10% for a 3*. Five star featured? 20%. We may not know down to the decimal, but essentially we already know the drop rates.

New_Noob168

Finally. I wonder when they will reveal its .00001%

Omni

Sky wrote: »

Why is everyone acting like we don't know the drop rates? What don't you know the drop rate of? PHC? 1% for a 4*, 10% for a 3*. Five star featured? 20%. We may not know down to the decimal, but essentially we already know the drop rates.

If that’s the case I’m the unluckiest person in the rng game from premiums. I’ve pulled 2 4 stars this calendar year from phc...2!

I open over 20 probably closer to 30 a week minimum.

DNA3000

CoatHang3r wrote: »

@DNA3000 you shoukd know all this is directly and exclusively under payments and in app purchases . And that none of it is under content or performance. It’s related directly to the exchange of money for in game items.

Yes and no. This is in the section that governs "payments" but that includes in-app purchases made with in-app currencies. Section 3 explicitly mentions this:

If you want to unlock features or functionality within your app, (by way of example: subscriptions, in-game currencies, game levels, access to premium content, or unlocking a full version), you must use in-app purchase. Apps may use in-app purchase currencies to enable customers to “tip” digital content providers in the app. Apps and their metadata may not include buttons, external links, or other calls to action that direct customers to purchasing mechanisms other than in-app purchase.

Apple appears to be saying that a "purchase" made with in-app currency is still considered a purchase.

A case can be made that crystals formed by shards are not "purchased" with "in-game currency" because that would open the floodgates to all sorts of things not intended to be part of the lootbox discussion. But I believe any crystal you can buy with cash at any time, or with units at any time, almost certainly falls within the intent of the rule. Game companies might try to push the grey area hard here: i would definitely expect them to try. But I think Apple is not likely to be in the mood for playing games here.

The one place I hope Apple doesn't allow game operators to play games is with vague probability statements that only give qualitative assertions. For example, saying a PHC offers "< 1% chance of 4* champion" is something I hope Apple gives game operators no wiggle room on. Less than one percent could be 0.8%, 0.1%, 0.01%. There's a huge difference between one in 125, one in 1000, and one in 10,000.

DNA3000

Omni wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

This is really a gigantic win for gamers. I am very impressed with Apple on this one

Not for us if it drastically changes the in game economy in a negative way

I strongly disagree. This definitely does have the potential to have a big impact on this, and every other game with loot crates. Even if it looks like a negative on the surface, I view this as an unquestionable positive

Kabam makes x amount of their money off of loot crystals. If they now disclose drop rates and it changes people’s purchasing pattern and less revenue comes in they will have two choices.

Strip the game team down to keep their profit target or change the economy of the game to entice people to purchase other in game items directly. If you thought a 5 star crystal was expensive now, wait until they figure out how much to charge to keep their same profit margin.

If that's the cost of having informed choice, then I'm willing to pay it. Or to be more to the point, if the cost of making that extra money is hiding information from the players, then that's not a cost I would be willing to pay.

This is mostly hypothetical. Lotteries function extraordinarily well publishing their odds. Most people can't understand probability anyway, and half the people who currently complain about the odds won't believe the published odds. People will post videos of twelve openings that "prove" the published odds are wrong. Publishing the odds won't necessarily change everyone's behavior much. Powerball has a net rate of return that makes MCOC crystals look like malfunctioning ATMs, and they bring in more money in a day than MCOC probably makes in a month.

I still believe in publishing them. Maybe only a fraction of the players can actually make good use of that information. But once you eliminate the willfully ignorant, the conspiratorially opaque, the mathematically illiterate, and the just plain foolish, you still have a large number of players that I believe should be given the best possible chance to make an informed decision with the best possible information.

Oh I agree completely. But at some point kabam has to decide if it’s worth it to keep the game running or not and I’m afraid this may be the straw that breaks the camels back. I hope it isn’t though

This implies MCOC is in some borderline situation that one small change could financially ruin the game. I don't think that is likely. The game keeps showing up among the highest revenue mobile games out there. They'd probably still be highly profitable at half their current daily revenue.

Honestly, MCOC is not as bad as many F2P games out there, in that the playerbase has done a pretty good job of figuring out the odds of most lootboxes to a reasonable margin of error. We know which things have decent odds and which things have relatively horrible odds because few (random) things in this game are genuinely rare, so players can test them. Disclosing the odds will dampen some, if not all of the crazy conspiracy ideas, and will give us more accuracy to theorycraft lootboxes (one of the reasons many game companies oppose releasing the odds is to specifically prevent this). But I don't think there are any massive surprises in those crystal odds that releasing them would cause a major drop in spending.

Omni

DNA3000 wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

Omni wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

This is really a gigantic win for gamers. I am very impressed with Apple on this one

Not for us if it drastically changes the in game economy in a negative way

I strongly disagree. This definitely does have the potential to have a big impact on this, and every other game with loot crates. Even if it looks like a negative on the surface, I view this as an unquestionable positive

Kabam makes x amount of their money off of loot crystals. If they now disclose drop rates and it changes people’s purchasing pattern and less revenue comes in they will have two choices.

Strip the game team down to keep their profit target or change the economy of the game to entice people to purchase other in game items directly. If you thought a 5 star crystal was expensive now, wait until they figure out how much to charge to keep their same profit margin.

If that's the cost of having informed choice, then I'm willing to pay it. Or to be more to the point, if the cost of making that extra money is hiding information from the players, then that's not a cost I would be willing to pay.

This is mostly hypothetical. Lotteries function extraordinarily well publishing their odds. Most people can't understand probability anyway, and half the people who currently complain about the odds won't believe the published odds. People will post videos of twelve openings that "prove" the published odds are wrong. Publishing the odds won't necessarily change everyone's behavior much. Powerball has a net rate of return that makes MCOC crystals look like malfunctioning ATMs, and they bring in more money in a day than MCOC probably makes in a month.

I still believe in publishing them. Maybe only a fraction of the players can actually make good use of that information. But once you eliminate the willfully ignorant, the conspiratorially opaque, the mathematically illiterate, and the just plain foolish, you still have a large number of players that I believe should be given the best possible chance to make an informed decision with the best possible information.

Oh I agree completely. But at some point kabam has to decide if it’s worth it to keep the game running or not and I’m afraid this may be the straw that breaks the camels back. I hope it isn’t though

This implies MCOC is in some borderline situation that one small change could financially ruin the game. I don't think that is likely. The game keeps showing up among the highest revenue mobile games out there. They'd probably still be highly profitable at half their current daily revenue.

Honestly, MCOC is not as bad as many F2P games out there, in that the playerbase has done a pretty good job of figuring out the odds of most lootboxes to a reasonable margin of error. We know which things have decent odds and which things have relatively horrible odds because few (random) things in this game are genuinely rare, so players can test them. Disclosing the odds will dampen some, if not all of the crazy conspiracy ideas, and will give us more accuracy to theorycraft lootboxes (one of the reasons many game companies oppose releasing the odds is to specifically prevent this). But I don't think there are any massive surprises in those crystal odds that releasing them would cause a major drop in spending.

It would be easy for me to pick apart their strategy if they were us based and publicly traded i.e. posteded 10k and 10qs. But it’s not and I’m not really familiar with many Korean companies so I don’t have a pulse on how they operate with more regulation.

I also have no idea what the revenue break down in game is, but I assume you could find out monthly sales through Apple and back into it that way.

Greener

Also in the App Store rules:
• Apps should not directly or indirectly enable gifting of in-app purchase content, features, or consumable items to others.

World Eater

^

No, your "conspiracy" opinion is just that..... an opinion based on nothing but your petty biases and ideas.

CoatHang3r

@dna3000 The section says if you wish to sell (meaning cash for x) anything within the app you need to use IAPs not that in game currency used is an IAP.

Where/how do you discern what apple is saying?

Perhaps the second paragraph of the updated guidelines contains what people need to be reminded of, “The guidelines themselves have not changed, but they are better organized and provide more context.” If true this statement maintains the status quo; and what we have here, once again, is people taking things out of context.

gannicus0830

Jestress wrote: »

WHEN Kabam releases this information, and they WILL be required to release it, let's just hope there's nothing surprising here. After all, everything is supposed to be RNG, right?

I don't imagine things would go very well for Kabam if it was revealed that things are not as they have told us for the last few years.

This is, of course, assuming that the numbers they release are the actual numbers. There's really nothing stopping them from simply releasing false numbers.

GroundedWisdom

It's my opinion. That's not conspiracy. An opinion that is based on experience and reactions that support it. Years of experience and reactions. You're free to disagree, though.