Does Kabam get audited for their drop rates

Just wondering because it's impossible for us to really know how accurate it is unless we take a large sample of crystals. There's really no way to tell unless you would have to trust them. The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

Comments

GalactikDonut

this u?

Crcrcrc

It's against Apple TOS to do that, all lootbox items must have posted drop rates that are accurate. I doubt kabam is casually breaking the TOS considering how well they enforce their own.

GroundedWisdom

First of all, audited by who? Secondly, it is illegal, not to mention a breech of their contracts with the platforms, to lie about their Drop Rates. Finally, I remember at least one instance where the Champ wasn't added, and they compensated accordingly, after owning up to the issue.
What exactly is the point of this Thread? There's easier ways to say you didn't pull what you wanted.

Greekhit

Just wondering because it's impossible for us to really know how accurate it is unless we take a large sample of crystals. There's really no way to tell unless you would have to trust them. The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

Why would a multimillion dollar company risk any potential lawsuits, over drops on digital items that they can practically infinitely produce?
It would be really dumb to do, and there is a 0,00000001% chance for Kabam to do that 😂
P.S. Any large sample analysis that has been processed by players during these years the game runs, suggests that Kabam percentages for variable crystals are very accurate 😉

ahmynuts

It's literally against the law for them to lie about it lmao
Just accept your bad luck and move on like 98% of us

ahmynuts

@DNA3000 Can we drop some stats on this guy? (It doesn't matter which stats, it's highly likely they wont understand them so it could be random numbers.) This is like the 3rd time I've seen them say this exact thing today

Wicket329

Just wondering because it's impossible for us to really know how accurate it is unless we take a large sample of crystals. There's really no way to tell unless you would have to trust them. The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

Then your memory is faulty, because it used to happen all the time. It’s literally happening right now with the class selector crystals from Necropolis. I’m not gonna say this is a half-baked take because no baking has taken place at all.

Demonzfyre

Just wondering because it's impossible for us to really know how accurate it is unless we take a large sample of crystals. There's really no way to tell unless you would have to trust them. The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

Void and Sentry....

Karatemike415

The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

This literally happened today lol

DNA3000

Just wondering because it's impossible for us to really know how accurate it is unless we take a large sample of crystals. There's really no way to tell unless you would have to trust them. The funny thing is, all the blunders where they have compensated people over the years, I don't ever recall a crystal one where the champ wasn't in there or the drop rates were wrong...hmmm

A long time ago I was one of the first to post drop rates for PHC crystals by using data from streamed openings, back when streaming openings were a thing people did. I used only streamed openings to eliminate cherry picking openings. When Kabam eventually revealed the drop rates of those crystals my statistical estimate was within a few percent of the released values and within the margin of error.

I also posted the first data driven estimate of the old school featured crystals (the ones that turned out to be 20% featured), I’ve posted data on Uncollected and TB arena crystals, TB and Paragon daily crystals, and several other crystals like solo crystals. In no case have I found statistical drop rates inconsistent with the published ones, and in cases where the odds are not originally published, like Paragon daily crystals, my published data has roughly matched later disclosures.

Other players have looked at things like the GMC, the cinematic crystal, and a few others. And I even did an analysis of the champions that show up in the reel when crystals are slimmed, which are not entirely random (nor does Kabam claim they are).

The fact of the matter is, there has been so much nothing that has been found over the years, and so much work eventually uncovering all that nothing, that virtually no one even bothers anymore. Literally every single crystal odds related conspiracy theory or bias supposition has been shot down fairly definitively at this point.

And for those saying that I didn’t find anything because I didn’t want to find anything. I have found bugs or other issues in the past, and in fact I did side with players claiming a non-random bias in draft order in battlegrounds. If it is there, and the bias is high enough that a player can spot it with their own eyes, it’s not going to escape rigorous statistical analysis and it is unlikely to get past me if I look carefully. I have no specific interest in confirming Kabam published odds, and in fact most of my early work was done before Kabam published odds, meaning I had no idea what drop odds I was supposed to be confirming.

If Kabam was in fact perpetrating a fraud on its players, I don’t know why Netmarble, a large multinational game publisher, would allow them to expose Netmarble to that sort of legal jeopardy. If you believe that all the Kabam devs are in on this, and Kabam management, and their Netmarble overlords, I have no idea why you would trust an auditing company. I would trust a game studio to not commit fraud against their own interests more than I would the average software auditing company to properly report on such issues.

laserjohn26

There are many examples of crystals that have had wrong drop rates and even champ pools that were different than advertised. In fact 1 summer I think it was 2021, when the two pack of Cavalier nexus crystals were sold for 5 bucks every Wednesday and they were a great deal. Everyone would try to buy them right when they dropped because there was a good chance they were not the advertised crystals. They would notice quickly and change them. However for all the ones sold before they were corrected kabaam would have to send the correct crystals out. I'm sure it would be easy to find those threads. It was nearly every week. So you basically got 4 cav nexus for 5 bucks. It sounds like a terrible deal now. But imagine if you could get two paragon nexus crystals for 5 bucks right now, with roughly 3% on the 7* and there was a good chance you would get 4 for 5 bucks. That's closer to the value at the time.

ahmynuts

There are many examples of crystals that have had wrong drop rates and even champ pools that were different than advertised. In fact 1 summer I think it was 2021, when the two pack of Cavalier nexus crystals were sold for 5 bucks every Wednesday and they were a great deal. Everyone would try to buy them right when they dropped because there was a good chance they were not the advertised crystals. They would notice quickly and change them. However for all the ones sold before they were corrected kabaam would have to send the correct crystals out. I'm sure it would be easy to find those threads. It was nearly every week. So you basically got 4 cav nexus for 5 bucks. It sounds like a terrible deal now. But imagine if you could get two paragon nexus crystals for 5 bucks right now, with roughly 3% on the 7* and there was a good chance you would get 4 for 5 bucks. That's closer to the value at the time.

I mean, that's just general messing up. Nothing to do with the manipulation of rates. Kabam just was not having a good time with those crystals and it took them awhile to sort it out

laserjohn26

There are many examples of crystals that have had wrong drop rates and even champ pools that were different than advertised. In fact 1 summer I think it was 2021, when the two pack of Cavalier nexus crystals were sold for 5 bucks every Wednesday and they were a great deal. Everyone would try to buy them right when they dropped because there was a good chance they were not the advertised crystals. They would notice quickly and change them. However for all the ones sold before they were corrected kabaam would have to send the correct crystals out. I'm sure it would be easy to find those threads. It was nearly every week. So you basically got 4 cav nexus for 5 bucks. It sounds like a terrible deal now. But imagine if you could get two paragon nexus crystals for 5 bucks right now, with roughly 3% on the 7* and there was a good chance you would get 4 for 5 bucks. That's closer to the value at the time.
I mean, that's just general messing up. Nothing to do with the manipulation of rates. Kabam just was not having a good time with those crystals and it took them awhile to sort it out

I guess my point was they went out of there way to ensure that the drop rates and crystals were accurate. I don't see why they would go through the hassle if they were purposely lying about it to begin with.

AverageDesi

Was there an issue with 5* punisher? Where no one got him and suddenly after an update he started popping up?

SirGamesBond

If you want, I can help you with that for a small fee of

1 BILLION DOLLARS

New_Noob168

Uh have you guys hear of mistakes...It's only against the law if they do it on purpose. The question is...does Kabam admit to mistakes and fixes it...or silently fixes it.

Demonzfyre

Uh have you guys hear of mistakes...It's only against the law if they do it on purpose. The question is...does Kabam admit to mistakes and fixes it...or silently fixes it.

There's literally a thread on the missing 7*'s from the basic pool. But it's possible they fix things behind the scenes. So I would assume it's both.

Klipp

So we get that mistakes happen but what if mistakes happen and aren't caught till months later and kabam doesn't admit to them? Does Google or Apple stores get a report to make sure kabam is living up to their drop rates? I'm sure the answer is yes and that's something behind the scenes with no transparency to the consumer just faith that its correct or self policing.

Shadow_Shooter

First of all, audited by who?
…
What exactly is the point of this Thread? There's easier ways to say you didn't pull what you wanted.

100K times people disapproved your posts, like 5 times more than your posts were agreed with… why are you picking the sour side each time? there’re hundred different ways to say the same thing, yet you pick the most inflamatory ones. weird…

GroundedWisdom

First of all, audited by who?
…
What exactly is the point of this Thread? There's easier ways to say you didn't pull what you wanted.
100K times people disapproved your posts, like 5 times more than your posts were agreed with… why are you picking the sour side each time? there’re hundred different ways to say the same thing, yet you pick the most inflamatory ones. weird…

What sour side are you referring to? I've posted facts in this Thread.
The Disagrees were added when people spammed the Abuse function and backed up the Mods' workload in reviewing things. It wad quite literally added as an innocuous way for people to troll comments.....and troll them they have.
I hate to break it to you, but if you're judging the content of what I say based on those reactions, you're going to be misguided. I'd say 90% of those comments were just spammed.

GroundedWisdom

Uh have you guys hear of mistakes...It's only against the law if they do it on purpose. The question is...does Kabam admit to mistakes and fixes it...or silently fixes it.

The answer is yes. They do. You're not giving this community enough credit. If anything is amiss, it doesn't go unnoticed.

peixemacaco

You can't blame Kabam on your bad luck (bad because of your perception).
Maybe the champs on crystals you pulled save you sometime, just learn to play with them.

Or, try more to get a better one for you.

For me and a lot of summoners, Kabam is always fair. Zillion times we got compensation...even for something we didn't have anything about the case.

Just realize that drop rates are fair and the same for you, me and everyone else.

Once I pulled Zemo 6* and was shocked, even now, only few people have him....now with the free Zemos maybe more people will have one.

But other 2 times,in a space of 1 month, trying the featured 6* , pulled....Old Man Logan twice...yes.

Keep playing and trying, you will pull Groot next ☺️

NoOnexRO

The only thing Kabam should be audited is the reel of heroes when you open the crystal.
That reel doesn't reflect the drop rates not even in the slightest.

Let's say the drop rates are:
- 60% --- 3 * hero
- 30% --- 4 * hero
- 9% --- 5 * hero
- 1% --- 6* hero

You see in the reel more 5* + 6* than you see 3*.
And in most cases, the crystal will land on a 3* having on the left and right 5* or 6*.

The rates may be 100% accurate but the visual reel is 100% misleading.

DrZola

Without concrete evidence of drop rate manipulation, this is tinfoil hat territory.

With that said, it would be a worthy answer to claims like this one if the team actually (a) responded with a statement that they internally audit all of their paid crystal drops to ensure they are within an acceptable margin of error of the stated drop rates and/or (b) published some kind of annual report showing aggregate drop rates & quantities of, say, featured crystals for the past year by rarity.

Would it stop needless speculation? No, nothing will. But something like the reference material suggested above could bolster trust that there isn’t some undiscovered error impacting drop rates. If there’s any cause for inquiry, I would think that’s where it lies, not in some kind of “crystal conspiracy.”

This isn’t a regulated area, unlike casinos, even if it feels it should be at times. I don’t know if there’s some certification required by the relevant gaming stores (Apple/Google). But I’d be surprised if there was zero oversight.

Dr. Zola

Rap

I believe the drop rates are correct...it is the contents of the crystal that I question. The recent issue over Warlock not being in a crystal is, in my opinion, not a new occurrence. I have opened many crystals that were supposed have new champs added to the crystal but THEY never spun past or showed among the champs running past the spin. I have brought it up in here many times but never gotten ,"keep what you got and we will give you another."
I have also heard multiple times over the years that "the spinner images are for entertainment only," but I can say for certain that a spin never stopped on a champ I didn't see go by several times before I hit the screen to crack the crystal.
I am sorry you did not get the champ you wanted, but, odds are "he has been added to the pool" or is "in the pool" but he is not in every champ crystal you spin...
That is my opinion anyway.

BigPoppaCBONE

It would be the height of stupidity for Kabam to fudge numbers on purpose. Things happen though. Sometimes numbers are transposed or missing. No one is consistently perfect and sometimes the 2nd and 3rd checks fail to catch errors.
If other parts of the game are prone to error and everyone accepts it, how and why could this one aspect be the unassailable shining beacon of perfection? I'm interested in hearing about the catch system, not the details of course, but we still don't really know how Kabam moves behind the scenes.

ahmynuts

I believe the drop rates are correct...it is the contents of the crystal that I question. The recent issue over Warlock not being in a crystal is, in my opinion, not a new occurrence. I have opened many crystals that were supposed have new champs added to the crystal but THEY never spun past or showed among the champs running past the spin. I have brought it up in here many times but never gotten ,"keep what you got and we will give you another."
I have also heard multiple times over the years that "the spinner images are for entertainment only," but I can say for certain that a spin never stopped on a champ I didn't see go by several times before I hit the screen to crack the crystal.
I am sorry you did not get the champ you wanted, but, odds are "he has been added to the pool" or is "in the pool" but he is not in every champ crystal you spin...
That is my opinion anyway.

How do people still not understand the spinner is fake

Savage123456789

I don't think they intentionally change rates. The worst they can do is accidentally use the wrong crystal type (e.g use a regular cavs instead of giving out featured), which has happened in the past. The only conspiracy that's close enough to be true is how many times has this happened in the past without players noticing or Kabam not retroactively fixing the mistake.

TheTrueBeast10

@DNA3000 Can we drop some stats on this guy? (It doesn't matter which stats, it's highly likely they wont understand them so it could be random numbers.) This is like the 3rd time I've seen them say this exact thing today

Yeah, because people complaining about drop rates really want to read a 10 paragraph essay...

ahmynuts

@DNA3000 Can we drop some stats on this guy? (It doesn't matter which stats, it's highly likely they wont understand them so it could be random numbers.) This is like the 3rd time I've seen them say this exact thing today
Yeah, because people complaining about drop rates really want to read a 10 paragraph essay...

Apparently people responding to me cant read inside parenthesis either