Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!
R......N......G.
How about B..S.. all I’m saying is the odds of not getting a single 6* in all of those are extremely low. Yes I’m salty and I know the risks but come on 39 crystals with the same % odds of 6* and to get 0 is baffling how that can be rng. I’m not even mentioning 7* cause I don’t expect one with those odds, nor do I care about 6* especially, it just seems a tad off to me…
Oof. That’s about $300+ of regret right there. Hope you at least got something decent from the 7* X Magica crystals
Explain how I opened 12 of these and got 7* serpent?
I’m talking about odds of a lot of crystals not a handful. Just baffles me how it seems to range from what seems like extremely low rng to high rng 🤷♂️
My brain can't process what I'm seeing here. Is Jax questioning RNG? Is Jax moonlighting as jcphillips and forgot to switch accounts before posting? Is the forum as buggy as the game (I kid...)?
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!
R......N......G.
How about B..S.. all I’m saying is the odds of not getting a single 6* in all of those are extremely low. Yes I’m salty and I know the risks but come on 39 crystals with the same % odds of 6* and to get 0 is baffling how that can be rng. I’m not even mentioning 7* cause I don’t expect one with those odds, nor do I care about 6* especially, it just seems a tad off to me…
It appears you botched the quote brackets, and because @jcphillips7 reposted or modified comment showed up after yours, the above looks like your own response 🤣
Edit: yep - @GroundedWisdom ’s bracket isn’t there - think I fixed it. Edit2: it seems both GW and jcphillips’s brackets aren’t available. Serious botch P1 call incident management.
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!
R......N......G.
How about B..S.. all I’m saying is the odds of not getting a single 6* in all of those are extremely low. Yes I’m salty and I know the risks but come on 39 crystals with the same % odds of 6* and to get 0 is baffling how that can be rng. I’m not even mentioning 7* cause I don’t expect one with those odds, nor do I care about 6* especially, it just seems a tad off to me…
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
Considering they have a patent for weighted RNG that changes based on other algorithmic factors I'd say most logically one should assume that it is isn't pRNG, and believe otherwise when there is tangible data to negate the usage of the patented code. After confirming that so many major mobile games have been weighted based on algorithms, it's naive to think this one isn't, until we have real evidence. I think it's a great idea, now that they are claiming greater transparency, for them to explain exactly how these things work on a live stream. Let's make that happen!
Kabam has no such patent. I know you think they do, I'm sure you think you've even seen it, but there is no such patent.
Nobody "weights RNG." That's like saying casinos weight decks of cards to make sure they win on the blackjack tables. Casinos win at blackjack because the rules of blackjack operate in their favor, and almost all of the house advantage in blackjack comes down to the player having to act first. If they bust, they lose and the dealer doesn't have to do anything, even if all they have is a deuce and a four.
What they have are patents that describes an invention that changes the weights of loot tables based on a variety of measured factors. The patent you're thinking about is one of two that is most often tossed around here and on the Reddit. One describes a patent that measures when players collectively stop buying a lootbox, and increases the amount of rare or valuable drops in that lootbox to make it more attractive to players. The second describes a patent that measures when player spending on lootboxes drops, and offers them enhanced lootboxes with better drop rates to encourage them to resume spending.
Kabam says they do not use either invention in MCOC. Do you think players have seen *any* evidence of either thing happening in the game to contradict them?
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
While I'm not familiar with the actual execution of an independent audit, I can say with confidence that going through what is likely a costly process to appease a handful of stubborn complaints on the forums is probably not a great use of company time/money. Additionally, I am also confident that this process still wouldn't convince the tin-hat theoriests.
And there is evidence from my party, plenty of it. It just seems some people refuse to accept it.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
Thanks for the replies Jax.
I consider myself fairly far along the quantitative literacy track (albeit behind @DNA3000), but more times than I’d care to admit statistical and mathematical outputs sometimes surprise me.
I’ve seen many of the spreadsheets you mention—whatever people may feel about @DNA3000 no one can honestly say he peddles in misinformation or fails to dig deep into the quantitative side of MCoC. I will also confess he’s probably even more obsessive about the game than I am. With that in mind, I’m confident if there were something amiss it would have been hard to escape his notice, even with the incomplete information we have on the Summoner side.
That’s likely insufficient to assuage the stubbornest of doubters, and it will surely earn me more Disagrees than I get on most posts. Fine—it is what it is.
Tl;dr pRNG is weird and it stinks to be on the wrong side of it, but there’s no proof anything’s rigged.
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
While I'm not familiar with the actual execution of an independent audit, I can say with confidence that going through what is likely a costly process to appease a handful of stubborn complaints on the forums is probably not a great use of company time/money. Additionally, I am also confident that this process still wouldn't convince the tin-hat theoriests.
And there is evidence from my party, plenty of it. It just seems some people refuse to accept it.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
No it’s better used on things like fixing the bugs in game right? 😱
Jokes I do love the game and I do believe frustrations must be vented (not always for the better) 😬
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
Just because a public trial hasn’t been conducted doesn’t mean that “no one is right or wrong,” that’s insane. Facts exist, whether they have been presented to you or not.
It is actively a bad idea to go around trying to confront every half-baked tin foil hat idea. It’s a waste of time, money, and energy for everybody involved. In no small part because the kind of person who doesn’t believe Kabam now won’t suddenly start believing them later just because now there are numbers associated with the answer. After a certain point, people will just believe what they want to believe independent from perceived reality and truth. And so there is no sense attempting to change their minds.
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!
R......N......G.
How about B..S.. all I’m saying is the odds of not getting a single 6* in all of those are extremely low. Yes I’m salty and I know the risks but come on 39 crystals with the same % odds of 6* and to get 0 is baffling how that can be rng. I’m not even mentioning 7* cause I don’t expect one with those odds, nor do I care about 6* especially, it just seems a tad off to me…
The X-Magica Paragon crystals have a 9% chance to drop a 6* or 7*. The Daily Valiant class Paragons and the Borson crysstals have a 13.5% chance to drop a 6* or 7*.
The odds of opening 24 X-Magica and not pulling a 6* or 7* is about 10%. The odds of opening 15 of the other crystals and not pulling a 6* or 7* is about 11%. The odds of both happening at the same time are about 1.2%, or about one in 85.
That's unusual, but given how many players are opening crystals it is bound to happen to lots of people with thousands of players opening crystals.
On top of that I'm guessing if you opened that many crystals, you open a lot of crystals in general. You're mentioning this particular run of bad luck, assuming you are remembering it precisely (even one 6* or 7* anywhere reduces these odds substantially). How many times has this happened out of all the crystals you've opened, ever? If a player opens this kind of volume of crystals over and over again, eventually they will get this kind of streak of bad luck. The odds of you seeing this kind of bad luck this one time is one in 85. But the odds of you having ever seen it depend on how much crystals you open, and if you open a lot, the odds of seeing it are much higher.
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
So you are confirming that kabam is not using the patent they own and registered that give result depending on users profile/habits etc.. ?
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
I have never seen any data provided by kabam as a proof or maybe I have not looked it well. could you please share a link to that data? Or maybe you were referring to data compiled by DNA based on his on personal experience.
Let's get ahead of this (or kinda "behind this," since we've talked about this many times before):
This will not be a topic on a future livestream, because it would be incredibly short and likely wouldn't move the needle in any way. haha
We would simply say the truth: RNG is random.
I'm convinced there isn't any evidence we can provide you all that will make everyone nod in agreement, and we know this because we've tried. We can bring in DNA to show his massive spreadsheets to showcase how, with a large enough sample size, RNG proves to be RNG.
But we do these things time and time again. And there's always claims of foul play. I am willing to wager that even if we showed everyone the code that governs these mechanics, it would convince even fewer people as not everyone has coding experience, myself included.
I understand the frustration that comes from not getting what we're looking for in crystals, and even moreso the larger the sample size gets. And yes, sometimes we see weird clumping of crystal openings that make you raise an eyebrow. Dr Zola makes some excellent points about personal bias and potential misunderstanding of statistics, and we find it seems to be the answer most frequently when we have claims of rigged RNG.
It's an important reminder that rigging crystals would be unethical and illegal. We would never risk the future of the Contest on such shady approaches.
Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!
I opened 24, didn't get a single 6*+ and opened 2 Normal paragons and duped my 7* hawkeye. Rng yeeteth and rng yoinketh away.
Comments
How about B..S.. all I’m saying is the odds of not getting a single 6* in all of those are extremely low. Yes I’m salty and I know the risks but come on 39 crystals with the same % odds of 6* and to get 0 is baffling how that can be rng. I’m not even mentioning 7* cause I don’t expect one with those odds, nor do I care about 6* especially, it just seems a tad off to me…
Oof. That’s about $300+ of regret right there. Hope you at least got something decent from the 7* X Magica crystals
I’m talking about odds of a lot of crystals not a handful. Just baffles me how it seems to range from what seems like extremely low rng to high rng 🤷♂️
I believe I got 7* Wiccan and 7* crossbones for first time.
My brain can't process what I'm seeing here. Is Jax questioning RNG? Is Jax moonlighting as jcphillips and forgot to switch accounts before posting? Is the forum as buggy as the game (I kid...)?
It appears you botched the quote brackets, and because @jcphillips7 reposted or modified comment showed up after yours, the above looks like your own response 🤣
Edit: yep - @GroundedWisdom ’s bracket isn’t there - think I fixed it.
Edit2: it seems both GW and jcphillips’s brackets aren’t available. Serious botch P1 call incident management.
Also there is something called Independent Audit that a lot of companies do to prove their good faith and honesty to their users. Kabam maybe can do same about their RNG methodology to put everyone at ease and burry once and forever the rigged RNG conspiracy?
Untill then no one is right or wrong as there is no evidence from both parties, it is just your words against theirs.
Nobody "weights RNG." That's like saying casinos weight decks of cards to make sure they win on the blackjack tables. Casinos win at blackjack because the rules of blackjack operate in their favor, and almost all of the house advantage in blackjack comes down to the player having to act first. If they bust, they lose and the dealer doesn't have to do anything, even if all they have is a deuce and a four.
What they have are patents that describes an invention that changes the weights of loot tables based on a variety of measured factors. The patent you're thinking about is one of two that is most often tossed around here and on the Reddit. One describes a patent that measures when players collectively stop buying a lootbox, and increases the amount of rare or valuable drops in that lootbox to make it more attractive to players. The second describes a patent that measures when player spending on lootboxes drops, and offers them enhanced lootboxes with better drop rates to encourage them to resume spending.
Kabam says they do not use either invention in MCOC. Do you think players have seen *any* evidence of either thing happening in the game to contradict them?
There doesn't need to be any moaning.
And there is evidence from my party, plenty of it. It just seems some people refuse to accept it.
It's less "our word against theirs" and more "our word and data, and code, and evidence vs. their word"
I consider myself fairly far along the quantitative literacy track (albeit behind @DNA3000), but more times than I’d care to admit statistical and mathematical outputs sometimes surprise me.
I’ve seen many of the spreadsheets you mention—whatever people may feel about @DNA3000 no one can honestly say he peddles in misinformation or fails to dig deep into the quantitative side of MCoC. I will also confess he’s probably even more obsessive about the game than I am. With that in mind, I’m confident if there were something amiss it would have been hard to escape his notice, even with the incomplete information we have on the Summoner side.
That’s likely insufficient to assuage the stubbornest of doubters, and it will surely earn me more Disagrees than I get on most posts. Fine—it is what it is.
Tl;dr pRNG is weird and it stinks to be on the wrong side of it, but there’s no proof anything’s rigged.
Dr. Zola
Jokes I do love the game and I do believe frustrations must be vented (not always for the better) 😬
It is actively a bad idea to go around trying to confront every half-baked tin foil hat idea. It’s a waste of time, money, and energy for everybody involved. In no small part because the kind of person who doesn’t believe Kabam now won’t suddenly start believing them later just because now there are numbers associated with the answer. After a certain point, people will just believe what they want to believe independent from perceived reality and truth. And so there is no sense attempting to change their minds.
The odds of opening 24 X-Magica and not pulling a 6* or 7* is about 10%. The odds of opening 15 of the other crystals and not pulling a 6* or 7* is about 11%. The odds of both happening at the same time are about 1.2%, or about one in 85.
That's unusual, but given how many players are opening crystals it is bound to happen to lots of people with thousands of players opening crystals.
On top of that I'm guessing if you opened that many crystals, you open a lot of crystals in general. You're mentioning this particular run of bad luck, assuming you are remembering it precisely (even one 6* or 7* anywhere reduces these odds substantially). How many times has this happened out of all the crystals you've opened, ever? If a player opens this kind of volume of crystals over and over again, eventually they will get this kind of streak of bad luck. The odds of you seeing this kind of bad luck this one time is one in 85. But the odds of you having ever seen it depend on how much crystals you open, and if you open a lot, the odds of seeing it are much higher.
Or maybe you were referring to data compiled by DNA based on his on personal experience.