I know crystals are not rigged but it’s so hard not to think this way when…

You pull 5 x 6* featured crystals and you get 4 of these out of 5. The fifth an equally old and useless champ, Green Goblin,

Really really weird level of being unlucky, lol.

Comments

Demonzfyre

I saved for 3 months. Had 28 featured crystals ready to go.

Had all the resources ready to R4 and ascend Bullseye.

You'd think I'd pull him at least once out of 28 crystals...

But no. Pulled everybody else.
Except Bullseye.

Actually make that 29 coz I opened another one a day later.

I have no words for it, other than I'm never saving for features ever again.

Ps. Bullseye was the only champ I wanted. Naturally 🤦‍♀️
So you can't open anymore current featured crystals? This is just a weird thing to say.
I never said I can't. Duh. Obviously I can.
But I don't want to, having struck out 29 times I'll just stick to basics for the 7* shards.

I just opened one and pulled Chee'lith. There's tons of 6* shards available. Open some more.

Milan1405

I saved for 3 months. Had 28 featured crystals ready to go.

Had all the resources ready to R4 and ascend Bullseye.

You'd think I'd pull him at least once out of 28 crystals...

But no. Pulled everybody else.
Except Bullseye.

Actually make that 29 coz I opened another one a day later.

I have no words for it, other than I'm never saving for features ever again.

Ps. Bullseye was the only champ I wanted. Naturally 🤦‍♀️
So you can't open anymore current featured crystals? This is just a weird thing to say.
I never said I can't. Duh. Obviously I can.
But I don't want to, having struck out 29 times I'll just stick to basics for the 7* shards.
I just opened one and pulled Chee'lith. There's tons of 6* shards available. Open some more.

I know my luck is atrocious when it comes to 6 star featureds so I just stick to opening basics so at least I get more 7 star shards.

captain_rogers

Jax mentioned rigging crystals is illegal. How is rigging crystals in a game that they made is illegal? Is there any laws for game except of showing prohibited stuff in game (Nudity, violence or blashpemy). Does rigging a crystal in a game lands kabam in jail? How?

altavista

Jax mentioned rigging crystals is illegal. How is rigging crystals in a game that they made is illegal? Is there any laws for game except of showing prohibited stuff in game (Nudity, violence or blashpemy). Does rigging a crystal in a game lands kabam in jail? How?

If money is involved, then yes, legal aspects come into play with regards to rigging things to happen differently than how it is advertised.

Money can directly buy crystals (Money offers) or buy Units which can then be used to buy crystals. If you buy something that says 2% chance at a 7-star, but Kabam has illegally rigged it to actually be 0.5% chance at a 7-star, then that is illegal because legal tender (money) was involved.

Conversely, Nintendo can rig Mario Kart so that the enemy AI gets better items than you from the item boxes, and it is not illegal because players aren't paying money for the item boxes.

Demonzfyre

Jax mentioned rigging crystals is illegal. How is rigging crystals in a game that they made is illegal? Is there any laws for game except of showing prohibited stuff in game (Nudity, violence or blashpemy). Does rigging a crystal in a game lands kabam in jail? How?

The App/Play stores have rules for games and there are laws preventing games from doing it. They don't have carte blanche to do anything they want. The drop rates are shown because of a law that was passes years ago that Apple App store games and Kabam had to meet requirements.

Just because it's a game, doesn't mean it doesn't have to follow the same rules as retailers and such. We're consumers and we have protection laws.

Suros_moon

Jax mentioned rigging crystals is illegal. How is rigging crystals in a game that they made is illegal? Is there any laws for game except of showing prohibited stuff in game (Nudity, violence or blashpemy). Does rigging a crystal in a game lands kabam in jail? How?

Well depends on how we’re using “rigging”. If you ONLY mean that the desired outcomes are less probable than undesirable ones then there isn’t a crime. In fact Casinos (of which kabam is one) build themselves on the premise that they can set up systems in this manner.

If by “rigging” you mean incongruence between the stated odds and actual odds then I believe that goes into consumer protections. If I lied about a game being 50/50 I could draw in people who would otherwise not play if they knew it was instead, say, a 1 in 1000 chance of winning. Although Im unsure about the specific code which in infracted upon my guess involves false advertising: https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/advertising-marketing-internet-rules-road within which the FTC states that marketing is deceptive if it is likely to:

- mislead consumers and
- affect consumers' behavior or decisions about the product or service.

Could be a wholly different statue of course but thats where Id imagine the issue lies.

Kabam Miike

Here are the results of the Crystal openings in the first day of the new Featured Hero Crystal. This represents over 600,000 Crystals opened.

Kabam Jax

SummonerNR

“Mic Drop” ??

Come on, I mean, it was sitting right there, all tee'd up for you…

“MIIKE DROP” 😀

Suros_moon

Here are the results of the Crystal openings in the first day of the new Featured Hero Crystal. This represents over 600,000 Crystals opened.

You know this isn’t enough to stop the theories but words can’t express how happy I am you posted it

Little_Crocodili29

It was bad enough seeing all the alli team mates screenshots pop up on line 😂

I feel worse now I got to be jealous of 25.387 people who got Bullseye and I didn't 😭

(Yeh yeh to the fact check forum police: I know that doesnt equate to total of people. A team mate of mine pulled him 4 times in one opening. I'm just simplifying it for my audience 😑).

Demonzfyre

Here are the results of the Crystal openings in the first day of the new Featured Hero Crystal. This represents over 600,000 Crystals opened.

In before people claim those aren't real stats.

Wicket329

Here are the results of the Crystal openings in the first day of the new Featured Hero Crystal. This represents over 600,000 Crystals opened.

Demonzfyre

Congratulations to the 25472 Silver Centurion owners. Lets be honest, that's the real prize of this featured crystal.

Revile

Kabam has no such patent. I know you think they do, I'm sure you think you've even seen it, but there is no such patent.

Nobody "weights RNG." That's like saying casinos weight decks of cards to make sure they win on the blackjack tables. Casinos win at blackjack because the rules of blackjack operate in their favor, and almost all of the house advantage in blackjack comes down to the player having to act first. If they bust, they lose and the dealer doesn't have to do anything, even if all they have is a deuce and a four.

What they have are patents that describes an invention that changes the weights of loot tables based on a variety of measured factors. The patent you're thinking about is one of two that is most often tossed around here and on the Reddit. One describes a patent that measures when players collectively stop buying a lootbox, and increases the amount of rare or valuable drops in that lootbox to make it more attractive to players. The second describes a patent that measures when player spending on lootboxes drops, and offers them enhanced lootboxes with better drop rates to encourage them to resume spending.

Kabam says they do not use either invention in MCOC. Do you think players have seen *any* evidence of either thing happening in the game to contradict them?

This entire response is empty sleight of hand. I'm not going to argue the semantics of the vocabulary I used, because you're using it as a logically flawed debate strategy, instead of producing a material argument. Also, I shouldn't even have to say it, but mentioning Proff Hoff is an even more absurd fallacy, as Seatin, who is considered very reasonable, was the first person to introduce a lot of us to these patents.

You clearly have spent ample time formulating a way to deflect how damnatory these patents are, but you should study them a bit further if you want a defense that isn't full of holes. It's not really the point, but it's worth mentioning that everything described in both patents, is exactly the kind of behavior that one would describe as a "rigged" crystal. The more relevant consideration however, is that it clearly displays that the crystals use a system where probability components can... and are... being manipulated. There is no valid argument to be made that these patents, should they be applied, aren't more than enough evidence to determine that the crystals are rigged in every sense of the word.

As one person here acutely stated, there is no proof on either side. Other than the patents, there is nothing that amounts to anything more than empirical evidence. Consequently, our reasoning would be abductive at best. Also, when mentioning cognitive biases in context of this topic, it's worth considering, that most people don't want to believe these crystals are rigged. So you have to ask yourself, if in the face evidence, are you just falling victim to confirmation bias by continuing to believe that they aren't?

So what are we left with? We are left with Kabam's word that malicious patents exist, but aren't active. They are saying that it would be illegal. If so, why does the company have illegal patents? This is the same company that has told us they haven't changed AI over the last 9 years. This means that there is no logical way to deny, that until some kind of proof is given that the crystals aren't rigged, it's perfectly fair and reasonable for anyone to think that they are.

DNA3000

This entire response is empty sleight of hand. I'm not going to argue the semantics of the vocabulary I used, because you're using it as a logically flawed debate strategy, instead of producing a material argument. Also, I shouldn't even have to say it, but mentioning Proff Hoff is an even more absurd fallacy, as Seatin, who is considered very reasonable, was the first person to introduce a lot of us to these patents.

You clearly have spent ample time formulating a way to deflect how damnatory these patents are, but you should study them a bit further if you want a defense that isn't full of holes. It's not really the point, but it's worth mentioning that everything described in both patents, is exactly the kind of behavior that one would describe as a "rigged" crystal. The more relevant consideration however, is that it clearly displays that the crystals use a system where probability components can... and are... being manipulated. There is no valid argument to be made that these patents, should they be applied, aren't more than enough evidence to determine that the crystals are rigged in every sense of the word.

As one person here acutely stated, there is no proof on either side. Other than the patents, there is nothing that amounts to anything more than empirical evidence. Consequently, our reasoning would be abductive at best. Also, when mentioning cognitive biases in context of this topic, it's worth considering, that most people don't want to believe these crystals are rigged. So you have to ask yourself, if in the face evidence, are you just falling victim to confirmation bias by continuing to believe that they aren't?

So what are we left with? We are left with Kabam's word that malicious patents exist, but aren't active. They are saying that it would be illegal. If so, why does the company have illegal patents? This is the same company that has told us they haven't changed AI over the last 9 years. This means that there is no logical way to deny, that until some kind of proof is given that the crystals aren't rigged, it's perfectly fair and reasonable for anyone to think that they are.

Ten bucks says you haven't actually read the patents. If you had, you'd know this was complete gibberish.

I can think of several reasons, but here's just one, and its the most important one. Both patents describe methods of altering the drop odds of lootboxes to encourage players to buy more of them. They try to encourage spenders to spend more on them. They try to encourage players who decide the lootboxes don't have enough value to start chasing them again.

HOW CAN THEY DO THAT IF THEY DO NOT TELL THE PLAYERS THEY HAVE DONE THIS?

You're saying their strategy for making more money is to improve the drop odds of the crystals and then deliberately lie about it and claim they didn't do that to the very people they are trying to convince to buy more?

That's not just conspiratorial, that's completely brain dead.

DNA3000

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.

The_Doctor_24_1

I don't feel like it's rigged or something that drastic, but ever since I started playing years ago I noticed that there are times when you just can't pull a class or that you just pull the exact same class. For example in one day you open a 6* crystal and get a Ronin, open a 5* get Taskmaster, open a 7* and get Jabari, open T6CC and only get skill or something like that. It's just weird

Doctorwho13

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.

That’s a curveball. We’re supposed to ask you for data and technical wizardry. Not the other way round.

Rookiie

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.
That’s a curveball. We’re supposed to ask you for data and technical wizardry. Not the other way round.

Forum quotes are neither data nor technical wizardry 🤦🏻‍♂️

Doctorwho13

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.
That’s a curveball. We’re supposed to ask you for data and technical wizardry. Not the other way round.

Forum quotes are neither data nor technical wizardry 🤦🏻‍♂️

Sarcasm and humour is hard for some. Sorry for your difficulties

DNA3000

THIS, is why I say don’t mistake a lack of understanding on your part for an error on mine. As I supplied above there was ample reason to assume Bernoulli refactoring because the poster cares ONLY ABOUT ONE RARITY.

Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

2 != 1

GroundedWisdom

It will never cease to amaze me, the amount of energy that people willingly sacrifice to refuse accepting not getting what they want. Almost instant to go from "That sucks!" to "Kabam cheated!".
Most conspiracy theories are born out of the human brain’s unwillingness to accept that sometimes bad things just happen beyond anybody’s control. We want to believe that they have a cause or a purpose and that we don’t just live in a world capable of uncaring, undeserved suffering. We look for stories and patterns in it and draw conclusions that frequently aren’t there, because it’s more comforting to believe that there is a person or entity orchestrating things behind the scenes than it is to accept that life is chaotic and sometimes you just get unlucky.

I think they're born out of a general sense of fear and mistrust of the world. When that fear accumulates enough, the brain starts frantically looking for absolutes to relieve itself. Unfortunately, it can't find them, so it finds more questions. That becomes a confirmation bias exercise. Which is why I agree with Jax. If someone doesn't believe them, no amount of proof will change that.

Rookiie

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.
That’s a curveball. We’re supposed to ask you for data and technical wizardry. Not the other way round.

Forum quotes are neither data nor technical wizardry 🤦🏻‍♂️
Sarcasm and humour is hard for some. Sorry for your difficulties

You must have meant hardly .. because that was hardly humorous

Doctorwho13

Also, what the heck is going on with forum quotes the last couple days.
That’s a curveball. We’re supposed to ask you for data and technical wizardry. Not the other way round.

Forum quotes are neither data nor technical wizardry 🤦🏻‍♂️
Sarcasm and humour is hard for some. Sorry for your difficulties

You must have meant hardly .. because that was hardly humorous

When your next set is at the comedy store be sure to all let us know.

DNA3000

Here are the results of the Crystal openings in the first day of the new Featured Hero Crystal. This represents over 600,000 Crystals opened.

In before people claim those aren't real stats.

Technically, it would not be difficult to generate such results using a simple random number generator, because that's what the crystals themselves are doing. However, they do appear to be actually randomly generated results, and not someone just, say, scribbling down some numbers in Excel. The average person doing that would almost certainly make mistakes that are detectable by analyzing the data.

Standard deviation for those drops is about 122.4. So you'd expect about sixteen data points to fall within 122 drops of the average (25487) and about twenty three to fall within 245 drops of the average. In fact, 15 data points fall within one standard deviation and one falls outside of two (meaning twenty three fall within two). That's basically what you would expect, and often the first thing to go out the window when someone just makes stuff up.

There is a duplicate value: Deadpool-X and Terrax. Made up data often deliberately avoids duplicates, because they don't "look random." The average person probably thinks that when you pick just 24 numbers around 25000 +- a few hundred, the odds of two numbers being identical are very low. However, given the data clusters within two standard deviations, which is a spread of 490, and a high percentage are within one standard deviation, which is a spread of about 245, the odds of a collision within 24 data points is actually pretty high. One is about what you'd expect (cf: Birthday Paradox).

Also, in a set like this, you'd expect the last digit, and probably the last two digits, of all the measurements to be essentially random (since standard deviation is over one hundred), and they appear to be. Once again, when analyzing for tampering it is instructive to look for what is not there. The last digit of the data has no "8", while the second to last digit has no "3". The rest of the digits have a fairly wide dispersal, which you'd expect from a relatively small set of data. Manipulated data tends to be more even, because human generated data tends to engineer "random" distributions to be much more smooth.

I've looked over the data in a number of different ways, and I can't see any obvious signs of tampering in the data. Again, the trivial way to fake crystal data is to actually use a random number generator to generate your results, because that's what the crystals themselves actually do, or are supposed to be doing. There's no way to prove the data is legitimate in that sense. What I can say is *if* the data is legitimate, there's no obvious signs of bias in that data. Featured champs are not under represented, in fact they are very slightly over represented (but well within the margin you'd expect). Out of 611687 drops you'd expect 152922 to be featured champs: there are actually 153261. And if we focus on the presumptive top two most desirable champs in the crystal - Onslaught and Bullseye - one of them is 100 drops below the average and one is 80 drops higher than the average, again entirely consistent with random chance.

Random appears to be random.

GinjabredMonsta

Every time someone says crystals are rigged, an angel loses their wings

MrKillaChris

This is pretty much annoying for me, Relics anytime I open one I receive Champ A the next time I might have enough to open two and I receive Champ A and B I open another I receive Champ B and it continues none stop.

So before I opened 1 4 Star relics I received Ms Marvel and here I opened 3 this time and receive all 3 Ms Marvel, now you can't tell me RNG is this terrible, and there are so many other relics I still haven't received but I keep duping ones I already have none stop...

DNA3000

I don't feel like it's rigged or something that drastic, but ever since I started playing years ago I noticed that there are times when you just can't pull a class or that you just pull the exact same class. For example in one day you open a 6* crystal and get a Ronin, open a 5* get Taskmaster, open a 7* and get Jabari, open T6CC and only get skill or something like that. It's just weird

Sometimes, random is weird. That's part of what makes it random.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqHRQdmjdrg
Note: the devs were likely working on Hood's rebalance literally while I was spinning these crystals. This was in September 2020, Hood's buff was released in early 2021. Not that that means anything in particular, but it does add additional weirdness factor to it.

DNA3000

Now the forums are just randomly inserting quotes from other posts into my posts. Jeez.