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I know crystals are not rigged but it’s so hard not to think this way when…

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    Suros_moonSuros_moon Posts: 467 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    THIS, is why I say don’t mistake a lack of understanding on your part for an error on mine. As I supplied above there was ample reason to assume Bernoulli refactoring because the poster cares ONLY ABOUT ONE RARITY.

    Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

    2 != 1

    “I opened [number of crystals]… and did not get so much as a 6 star”. Explain the difference you are contriving.

    The only real possible point of contention is that maybe you could read this so that we also include 7 stars as a success? Doesn't change a single thing on the theoretical side though since you can pool those and proceed in exactly the manner I outlined. You would just need to take care to define the true mean as the sum of their individual success rates. Sample mean would converge as expected (I forget the qualifiers for the limit exchange you would need to do but you end up with an argument that each converges to its own true success rate hence the sum converges to the success rate of either occurring. I think it *might* be dominated convergence but memory fails).
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    EpistriatusEpistriatus Posts: 1,249 ★★★★
    DrZola said:

    “Rigged” is a strong term to use.

    I agree that pRNG seems in many instances to tilt against us. Some of that is our own cognitive bias, some of it is our own distorted sense of what *random* means, and some of it (I think) is the way the game’s pRNG sometimes seems to produce clumpy outcomes.

    I’ve wondered often over the past decade of this game about all of this. I don’t believe anything is purposefully meant to confound us, but I’m also a believer that there’s some much code overwritten on code that it’s difficult for anyone to know how things actually work sometimes.

    Dr. Zola

    I don’t care about rng……it is what it is and nothing more, and that’s just my humble opinion.
    What got me more rattled is “I’ve wondered often over the past decade of this game”……..a decade……..10 frakking years……80% of my hair wasn’t grey when I started playing this game 🫣
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 19,081 Guardian

    DNA3000 said:

    THIS, is why I say don’t mistake a lack of understanding on your part for an error on mine. As I supplied above there was ample reason to assume Bernoulli refactoring because the poster cares ONLY ABOUT ONE RARITY.

    Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

    2 != 1

    “I opened [number of crystals]… and did not get so much as a 6 star”. Explain the difference you are contriving.

    The only real possible point of contention is that maybe you could read this so that we also include 7 stars as a success? Doesn't change a single thing on the theoretical side though since you can pool those and proceed in exactly the manner I outlined. You would just need to take care to define the true mean as the sum of their individual success rates. Sample mean would converge as expected (I forget the qualifiers for the limit exchange you would need to do but you end up with an argument that each converges to its own true success rate hence the sum converges to the success rate of either occurring. I think it *might* be dominated convergence but memory fails).
    Actually, I just think it is hilarious when someone claims they are not the one misunderstanding anything, goes through the trouble of ALL CAPPING A STATEMENT and it turns out to be trivially false.

    Bonus points for trying to say "the only possible way I could be wrong is" and then say something equally obvious.

    Anyone can make a typo, and anyone can make a slip, but you don't get the benefit of the doubt WHEN YOU'RE SHOUTING AT SOMEONE TRYING TO CLAIM THEY ARE WRONG. There, you only get one shot, and I'm afraid you wasted your shot firing into the ceiling.
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    Suros_moonSuros_moon Posts: 467 ★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    DNA3000 said:

    THIS, is why I say don’t mistake a lack of understanding on your part for an error on mine. As I supplied above there was ample reason to assume Bernoulli refactoring because the poster cares ONLY ABOUT ONE RARITY.

    Explain how I have opened 24 xmagica paragon crystals (bought with money from store) 5 of the daily valiant special crystals (from store with real money) and 10 of the new serpent paragon crystals (units) in the past 24 hours, and not even a single one did I get so much as a 6*?!

    2 != 1

    “I opened [number of crystals]… and did not get so much as a 6 star”. Explain the difference you are contriving.

    The only real possible point of contention is that maybe you could read this so that we also include 7 stars as a success? Doesn't change a single thing on the theoretical side though since you can pool those and proceed in exactly the manner I outlined. You would just need to take care to define the true mean as the sum of their individual success rates. Sample mean would converge as expected (I forget the qualifiers for the limit exchange you would need to do but you end up with an argument that each converges to its own true success rate hence the sum converges to the success rate of either occurring. I think it *might* be dominated convergence but memory fails).
    Actually, I just think it is hilarious when someone claims they are not the one misunderstanding anything, goes through the trouble of ALL CAPPING A STATEMENT and it turns out to be trivially false.

    Bonus points for trying to say "the only possible way I could be wrong is" and then say something equally obvious.

    Anyone can make a typo, and anyone can make a slip, but you don't get the benefit of the doubt WHEN YOU'RE SHOUTING AT SOMEONE TRYING TO CLAIM THEY ARE WRONG. There, you only get one shot, and I'm afraid you wasted your shot firing into the ceiling.


    Saying the words: trivially wrong in order to save face is easy to do. Substantiating that something is actually wrong when your point is incorrect? Well thats a lot harder, and Im sure the ankles are sore from the number of pitfalls you’ve stumbled in already. I can understand why you’re opting for the first route. It appears our conversation has come to a close though.
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    MrKillaChrisMrKillaChris Posts: 122
    DNA3000 said:

    I don't feel like it's rigged or something that drastic, but ever since I started playing years ago I noticed that there are times when you just can't pull a class or that you just pull the exact same class. For example in one day you open a 6* crystal and get a Ronin, open a 5* get Taskmaster, open a 7* and get Jabari, open T6CC and only get skill or something like that. It's just weird

    Sometimes, random is weird. That's part of what makes it random.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqHRQdmjdrg
    Note: the devs were likely working on Hood's rebalance literally while I was spinning these crystals. This was in September 2020, Hood's buff was released in early 2021. Not that that means anything in particular, but it does add additional weirdness factor to it.
    And just like my post above yours it's just like this for relics in my situation, I keep duping and getting the same relics over and over, nothing new just dupes none stop.
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    ValrozValroz Posts: 209 ★★
    I recall a conversation with my uncle, who is now nearly homeless due to gambling away everything, including his house and land. He explained that a gambling addiction not only consumes you from the inside out but also transforms you into the embodiment of greed. On one occasion, while warming up on a slot machine before moving on to his usual poker and other gambling games, he handed a hundred dollars to a friend seated next to him so she could try her luck on the slot machine. This friend was not a gambler but was at the casino waiting for another friend so they could have lunch together.

    After pressing the button three times, this friend, who had never played a slot machine before and had wagered $100, won the $20,000 third prize jackpot. In contrast, my uncle, who has gambled for over ten years, has never won more than $1,000 from slot machines or any other casino game.

    This incident dispelled any belief I had that casino slot machines were rigged. I've come to understand that what happened to me last week with the 5 x 6* featured pull was simply bad luck, and opening 3 x 6*s on a mythic nexus was just good fortune.

    It seems we all struggle to accept the level of misfortune we face, especially those of us who invest significant amounts of money in this game.

    Reflecting on my uncle's gambling experiences, I asked him how it would be if one won every time they gambled. His response was enlightening: It wouldn't be fun at all.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    @Valroz good points. Btw I think slot machines are 'rigged', in that they are rigged to offer "X% return" , where the owner can set how often they want a prize to be won. I think many countries have legal minimum values the owner has to use but this ofc doesn't really matter as no matter how much you win, if you keep gambling on the machine then you will eventually lose all your money.
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 19,081 Guardian
    Milan1405 said:

    @Valroz good points. Btw I think slot machines are 'rigged', in that they are rigged to offer "X% return" , where the owner can set how often they want a prize to be won. I think many countries have legal minimum values the owner has to use but this ofc doesn't really matter as no matter how much you win, if you keep gambling on the machine then you will eventually lose all your money.

    They aren’t rigged in the sense that they are programmed to give out a specific amount of winnings. They are simply designed to offer rewards for different results that, when you average the results out over the long run, average those results. On short time scales slot machines can give out substantially more, or substantially less than the advertised average rate of return.

    I think it’s the fact that slot machines are “machines” (computers today, mechanical devices in the past) that make them vulnerable to being described as being “rigged” in any sense of the word. We don’t generally say that blackjack, roulette, or craps is similarly rigged even though the house edge is due to the exact same factors: designing the rate of return for the various possible outcomes.

    For example, in roulette the house edge comes from the simple fact that every bet you can make has a less than 100% return. If you bet on red or black those bets offer two to one win. Meaning, if you bet $100 and you win, you get back $200, if you lose you lose your $100. If the entire wheel was just black and red spots then on average each color would come up 50% of the time, and your 2:1 color bets would break even on average. However, roulette wheels have a zero and (usually) a double 0 that are generally colored green. Which means there’s always a small chance that all red and black bets will lose. The wheel isn’t “rigged” to return less than 100%, the game is designed to return less than 100% on average, assuming the wheel is random. Same thing happens with the number bets. Generally betting on a single number returns 35 to 1. But a roulette wheel generally has 37 or 38 numbers - one or two zeros. If it had 36 numbers the 35:1 bet would break even. On average you would lose 35 times and win once every 36 spins. The presence of the zeros means on average the player will lose 37 out of 38 spins and win one 35 to 1 prize, and the house will thus win in the long run.

    Nothing here is “rigged” in the colloquial sense. Rather, the house just doesn’t give you enough money when you win to counterbalance how much you will lose when you lose.


    ** It is a common practice by many slot machine players to “play off” jackpots after winning large awards. Especially true for video poker, but also common with other slot machines as well. There are some casinos that will even request that players do so, to prevent leaving a slot machine on a high jackpot display, lest troublemakers try to claim they “just hit it” but the machine refused to pay it.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★
    @DNA3000 I used quotation marks as I meant that slot machines are "rigged" by use of the colloquial definition (i.e not in your favour), as the average rate of return is less than 100%. Like in the same way you can say that card games in the casino are "rigged" (i.e it's not 'fair' as you don't have an even chance of winning, the odds are in the house's favour.)
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 19,081 Guardian
    Incidentally, video poker aficionados (of which I used to be one) will know that there exist rare video poker slot machines that actually return more than 100% (we sometimes call these 10/7 machines because of a particular recognizable quirk in their payout tables**). In other words, with perfect play they actually return more money on average than you put in. It is actually possible, in the long run, to reliably make money on these machines.

    What’s the catch? The catch is “with perfect play.” Most players do not know what perfect play is, and even if they know it they often find it difficult to execute, because the strategy is complex and some of the requirements are counter intuitive. If you don’t play optimally, the return is less tha 100%.

    Every video poker slot machine uses basically the same random number generators to deal the cards. Their expected rate of return is determined strictly by their payout table. Two pair has a certain probability of coming up, and it pays a certain amount of money when you get it. That probability is not enforced by the slot machine, it is presumed on the assumption that the deck of cards is random.


    ** The 10/7 nickname comes from the fact that video poker players often check the payout table and look specifically at the payouts for full house and flush which are adjacent to each other and are commonly tweaked to adjust the return of a video poker machine. 9/6 is common. 9/7 is pretty good. 9/5 is horrible. 8/6 is horrible. 10/7 is the unicorn.
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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 19,081 Guardian
    Milan1405 said:

    @DNA3000 I used quotation marks as I meant that slot machines are "rigged" by use of the colloquial definition (i.e not in your favour), as the average rate of return is less than 100%. Like in the same way you can say that card games in the casino are "rigged" (i.e it's not 'fair' as you don't have an even chance of winning, the odds are in the house's favour.)

    As I said, while you can say that, almost no one actually does. The fact that it is common to say that slot machines are rigged, but dice and cards are not rigged, says something about the implications of the language as it is commonly used. Maybe you meant something very specific and innocent, but my point is that given the obvious preponderance of usage when it comes to machines and the almost complete absence of the use of the same term in environments where manipulation is more casually seen as unlikely, saying slot machines (or for that matter loot boxes) are “rigged” carries a connotation that is not just a description of the rules of the game, and we should recognize that when we use the term it will vary a meaning beyond what we might intend literally.
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    Crimson8399Crimson8399 Posts: 762 ★★★
    I don’t know anything about coding but isn’t there an option to code something in the game that can goes ok the player just pulled this champ, let’s make sure it doesn’t pull that champ again for a bit. I get that defeats rng to an extent but if you only have 5 crystals to open it is very defeating to pull the same champ over and over again even if it’s a great character.
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    PikoluPikolu Posts: 7,102 Guardian

    I don’t know anything about coding but isn’t there an option to code something in the game that can goes ok the player just pulled this champ, let’s make sure it doesn’t pull that champ again for a bit. I get that defeats rng to an extent but if you only have 5 crystals to open it is very defeating to pull the same champ over and over again even if it’s a great character.

    That sounds like a LOT of extra computing that would be required which would cause a ton of stress on the servers, especially when a new crystal rolls around and the servers have to compute millions of crystal openings around the same time. Would not be ideal as well as defeating the purpose of playing a gacha game.
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    GrO_ot78GrO_ot78 Posts: 688 ★★★
    I got one of those white tigers, any good ?!?
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    Dawnbringer_1Dawnbringer_1 Posts: 267 ★★
    Well ya know as far as true random number generators go, if it’s an algorithm then it is not truly random so weird patterns are bound to show up in your crystal pulls now and then which could be in your favor.
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    Wicket329Wicket329 Posts: 3,235 ★★★★★
    GrO_ot78 said:

    I got one of those white tigers, any good ?!?

    Yes. Pulled the 7* from a Titan and took her straight to r2, she bangs.
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    Fit_Fun9329Fit_Fun9329 Posts: 1,920 ★★★★★
    Interesting thread. I understand and trust that Rng is just rng.

    But how? I mean randomness is not really randomness right? When I roll a dice, it’s theoretically possible to calculate what the outcome will be (posture of the hand, speed etc.)

    How it’s possible that rng does exactly rng things? Is there something like an absolute randomness without any influences?

    Sorry I am not a coder :smile:
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    Dawnbringer_1Dawnbringer_1 Posts: 267 ★★

    Interesting thread. I understand and trust that Rng is just rng.

    But how? I mean randomness is not really randomness right? When I roll a dice, it’s theoretically possible to calculate what the outcome will be (posture of the hand, speed etc.)

    How it’s possible that rng does exactly rng things? Is there something like an absolute randomness without any influences?

    Sorry I am not a coder :smile:

    Well there are mathematical formulas for calculating some degree of chance for physical objects that are pretty accurate but for coding it is different since the computer is not interacting with reality physically. It’s more so an algorithm designed not to repeat, creating a form of pseudo random effect.
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,536 ★★★★★
    For me what always blows my mind is that all these people that believe Kabam riggs the crystals are many of the same that complain how many bugs are in the game. The fully believe that Kabam is somehow able to perfectly rig crystals without fail ever but somehow can't seem to release a new update without breaking something.

    For any of you tinfoil hatters, please explain it to me.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★

    For me what always blows my mind is that all these people that believe Kabam riggs the crystals are many of the same that complain how many bugs are in the game. The fully believe that Kabam is somehow able to perfectly rig crystals without fail ever but somehow can't seem to release a new update without breaking something.

    For any of you tinfoil hatters, please explain it to me.

    When people said they "thought crystals were rigged", I thought they meant maybe they believed Kabam had made a mistake with the drop rates for a featured crystal or something. My mind couldn't even comprehend that someone would be stupid enough to suggest Kabam actively picked a list of 'bad champions' and then weighted crystals according to their rank from worst to best. :D

    The lag and bugs are a completely different thing. Personally (on my iPhone 12) bugs generally don't impact me, I mainly suffer from dropped inputs. The AI can be annoying but Kabam's looking into that, however I do wish they would give us a similarly detailed plan for fixes/updates to lag and dropped inputs (especially parry for me).
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    DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 21,536 ★★★★★
    Milan1405 said:

    For me what always blows my mind is that all these people that believe Kabam riggs the crystals are many of the same that complain how many bugs are in the game. The fully believe that Kabam is somehow able to perfectly rig crystals without fail ever but somehow can't seem to release a new update without breaking something.

    For any of you tinfoil hatters, please explain it to me.

    When people said they "thought crystals were rigged", I thought they meant maybe they believed Kabam had made a mistake with the drop rates for a featured crystal or something. My mind couldn't even comprehend that someone would be stupid enough to suggest Kabam actively picked a list of 'bad champions' and then weighted crystals according to their rank from worst to best. :D

    The lag and bugs are a completely different thing. Personally (on my iPhone 12) bugs generally don't impact me, I mainly suffer from dropped inputs. The AI can be annoying but Kabam's looking into that, however I do wish they would give us a similarly detailed plan for fixes/updates to lag and dropped inputs (especially parry for me).
    Have you not read this thread? It's exactly what's suggested here.
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    Milan1405Milan1405 Posts: 952 ★★★★

    Milan1405 said:

    For me what always blows my mind is that all these people that believe Kabam riggs the crystals are many of the same that complain how many bugs are in the game. The fully believe that Kabam is somehow able to perfectly rig crystals without fail ever but somehow can't seem to release a new update without breaking something.

    For any of you tinfoil hatters, please explain it to me.

    When people said they "thought crystals were rigged", I thought they meant maybe they believed Kabam had made a mistake with the drop rates for a featured crystal or something. My mind couldn't even comprehend that someone would be stupid enough to suggest Kabam actively picked a list of 'bad champions' and then weighted crystals according to their rank from worst to best. :D

    The lag and bugs are a completely different thing. Personally (on my iPhone 12) bugs generally don't impact me, I mainly suffer from dropped inputs. The AI can be annoying but Kabam's looking into that, however I do wish they would give us a similarly detailed plan for fixes/updates to lag and dropped inputs (especially parry for me).
    Have you not read this thread? It's exactly what's suggested here.
    I meant when I first heard about people thinking this ages ago.
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    Mr Wilson FiskMr Wilson Fisk Posts: 297 ★★
    I only got one featured today because I pulled 5k shards from a daily crystal so I figured what the heck...

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    ValrozValroz Posts: 209 ★★
    Well, RNG was favorable today after pulling 2 more duds. Lol.


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    PantherusNZPantherusNZ Posts: 1,883 ★★★★

    I saved for 3 months. Had 28 featured crystals ready to go.

    Had all the resources ready to R4 and ascend Bullseye.

    You'd think I'd pull him at least once out of 28 crystals...

    But no. Pulled everybody else.
    Except Bullseye.

    Actually make that 29 coz I opened another one a day later.

    I have no words for it, other than I'm never saving for features ever again.

    Ps. Bullseye was the only champ I wanted. Naturally 🤦‍♀️


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    DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 19,081 Guardian

    I don’t know anything about coding but isn’t there an option to code something in the game that can goes ok the player just pulled this champ, let’s make sure it doesn’t pull that champ again for a bit. I get that defeats rng to an extent but if you only have 5 crystals to open it is very defeating to pull the same champ over and over again even if it’s a great character.

    Yes, it is possible. I've played games that have implemented such things in various ways, both for random rewards and even in combat situations. The problem with implementing such things in random rewards specifically is that they can be gamed or manipulated. Suppose you want a specific champ in the featured crystals. Just save 24 crystals and open them simultaneously. The code to prevent recent repeats could act to guarantee that you would get 24 different champs to prevent recent duplicates, which completely defeats the purpose of the crystal being random. And while there are ways to prevent that from happening, you end up with a very complex web of if...then logic for the crystal that increases the chances of a malfunction substantially.

    Also, consider all the people who hit the jackpot first pulling, then duping a champ they really want. You'd be making that impossible. You're removing a worst case scenario by also removing a best case scenario from happening. This starts to become curation - saying what random possibilities you find acceptable and which you find unacceptable, and at that point you truly are rigging the crystals to only generate acceptable results for whomever is in charge of designing those rules.
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