Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008 · 2017-12-21T16:58:46+00:00

Any comments on this?<br/><br/><a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure" rel="nofollow">https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure</a><br/><br/>

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

LeDee

Here's something that needs to marinate. Until Apple actually enforces something, or until Kabam chooses to self regulate, Grounded Wisdom is more correct than most of you. Except for that grammar bit, that is just plain wrong. But with respect to the overall point that nothing substantive is actually going to change, he has you there. Whether or not gambling definitions are strict or general, I could care less. But not much less. :P

LeDee

Have they ever said that all champs have even odds? Not that I paid attention, clearly, but my assumption was that all of us had the same odds regardless of level of play or money spent, etc, but that some champs were absolutely more rare than others. In fact I thought I even saw a chart on Reddit once that listed every chsmp at the time and if they were common, less common, rare, or very rare (not the actual terms but you get the point).

All that said, don't hold your breath on drop rates. I won't believe we will see them until it actually happens. Until then, it ain't happening...

xoRIVALox

Don't worry people if and when this ever goes down, there will be nefarious practices to get around this or you "bundles" will be designed much differently.

The odds will always suck, even if Apple users get their wish granted, I'm sure us android users will pay for it in the end

MCoC_fan

im pretty sure it says u have to put the odds there if u buy it with real money not game currecy but if im wrong they will have to tell us the odds.

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GroundedWisdom

_ASDF_ wrote: »

I think that Kabams RNG is lousy. If it was truly random across the board you’d see even dispersal of decent champs. It honestly looks like some accounts are blessed and from a psychological and economic stand point that would be brilliant because it creates jealousy and a frenzy for people to get certain champs. If it was truly random why is it the first 10 champs pulled from 5* crystals are complete trash.

I assume this is their “attempt at random” but wouldn’t be surprised if there are 10 colossus for every one Tech Spidey.

I'm not sure you understand how RNG works. It doesn't mean there's even disperison.

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supermanMKZ

Lol. I actually found that amusing.

supermanMKZ

I don't expect posting rates will change anything in regards to buying or opening crystals but for transparency of seeing if honestly same drop rates of any character available or "rigged" so to speak I am very curious.

chunkyb

There's no actual random. There's a semblance of randomness. That's the best that can be achieved. Algorithms mimic randomness. It all looks the same to the end user, most times.

And as far as particular champs go.... Think like a gaming company. Would you give players an even chance to pull "gold" or **** with each pull? What sense would that make for your company? You'd have too many top level champs getting out there and needlessly lower the desire/need to grind/spend to get those top champs.

I don't know the inner workings of the company but computer math and probabilities are pretty widely known. So are business/gambling tactics. Plus, the more you hear people proclaiming rng, the more obvious the situation.

GroundedWisdom

It's a semi-random, actually. An RNG generates outcomes with specific parameters, drop rates. It's not an even distribution where every outcome generates to fill the 100%, then recycles. In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance. Every Crystal we open. It doesn't remove the previous selection from our rolls. We could quite literally roll the same Champ everytime, albeit highly unlikely. The Crystal doesn't analyze our Account before we open it. Lol. It doesn't even know what Account is accessing the pool. It just accesses that pool and creates an outcome.

The_One

What makes you think they have to disclose the odds?
I know about apples new rules but they don't apply here.

You're not buying the crystals with money, even if you buy units to buy crystals you're still not buying crystals.

You buy X amount of units for X amount of money, you have a 100% chance to get that amount of units, what you then do with those units is up to you.

SgtSlaughter78

miike responsed and closed a thread of mine on the topic.

TheBlackDefense

Pretty sure they find some loophole to just barely escape the rules😂😂😂

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Gwendoline

You are more likely to pull **** because you view more champions as **** then you view them as awesome.

Let’s say there are 100 5* champs in a crystal. Now I’m only interested in 5 of them (AA, Sparky, GP, Magik and GR) and there are 30 champs I’m okay with getitng, but not excited about (Dorm, Juggs, MK, X23) and the other 65 I just don’t want (Col, SG, Khamala, Magneto).

I now have a 65% chance to pull a **** champ, not because the **** champs drop more often, but because I find more champs awful then there are champs I’d really want as a 5*.

GroundedWisdom

SmokinSurfer wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Kestrelle wrote: »

supermanMKZ wrote: »

Kabam disclosing percentages can't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned! I've pulled about 12 5* and 3 of them have been colossus!? I mean seriously, given the size of the pool now how is that even possible unless the rates are rigged against "good" champs?

Sadly, this is how randomness works

That's correct. It's random. Not a system that removes what you pulled previously from the pool. It doesn't take any information in, for that matter. You open the Crystal and it accesses the same pool and generates a separate outcome each time. There aren't multiple algorithms based on how much you spend or what you pull before. Theoretically you could pull 10 Colossus in a row.
Conversely, I've never seen anyone upset because they pulled back-to-back Sparky. Lol.

How do you know this. Seriously. How do you know this, as a fact, seeing as how you're stating it as fact

I understand how RNG works, and they have said it many times. Not to mention the complexity of creating specific algorithms for every factor that is speculated. I understand how these things work. Besides that, do you really believe the servers we're on can instantaneously analyze our Accounts and produce an outcome? We have a hard time with Help Requests. Lol. No one is controlling our drops.

CFree

_ASDF_ wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

_ASDF_ wrote: »

I think that Kabams RNG is lousy. If it was truly random across the board you’d see even dispersal of decent champs. It honestly looks like some accounts are blessed and from a psychological and economic stand point that would be brilliant because it creates jealousy and a frenzy for people to get certain champs. If it was truly random why is it the first 10 champs pulled from 5* crystals are complete trash.

I assume this is their “attempt at random” but wouldn’t be surprised if there are 10 colossus for every one Tech Spidey.

I'm not sure you understand how RNG works. It doesn't mean there's even disperison.

Not even, simply reflective of an even pool of champs. IE if there’s a 1% chance to get a 5* AA, Kamala or any other champ... why doesn’t anyone in my Alliance have an AA? Can find you 20 kamalas and 20 Rhinos though. Would seem that the pool isn’t an even dispersion of champs or at least the scales aren’t in our favor by some other metric. It’s a safe assumption that it isn’t. It’s in Kabams economic interest that we need to grind harder and longer.

This still isn’t how RNG works.

Dave_the_destroyer

supermanMKZ wrote: »

Kabam disclosing percentages can't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned! I've pulled about 12 5* and 3 of them have been colossus!? I mean seriously, given the size of the pool now how is that even possible unless the rates are rigged against "good" champs?

Mate, they wont have to show DRs per character (they wont have to show any at all even) just the fact that you will get a 5 star champ. Thats it. I think a lot of people on here are thinking like this, and thinking it will show per character, but it wont

Dave_the_destroyer

Snizzbar wrote: »

Hubris_hater wrote: »

DL864 wrote: »

I think Apple said the 1st of Jan not 💯 on that

No they didnt mate, date was 21st December, fixed

Plus, do Kabam sell loot boxes at all? These boxes contain a number of items, I cant think of anything like that in this game? You pull any crystal, you get what that crystal says, thats it. So pull a 4* one, you get a 4* champ. DRs wont say odds for each champ, as you get what the crystal says, one four-star champ

No wonder Kabam are just letting this thread run and run, must be quiet amusing to them

You're just choosing to mention the crystals that have 100% odds. We're not talking about those. The crystals that we're talking about are the ones like PHCs, where you are guaranteed at least a 2* but there is a CHANCE at a 3 or 4*. Or if you pay real, actual currency for a mutant or tech daily crystal from the unit store and you have a SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE at a 3 or 4*. Those are the odds that Kabam may have to disclose. And there is no reason why they shouldn't, and no reason why you should be on their side in this discussion, other than perhaps you're doing it to be contrary.

Please see all the other, much better than me, posters mate, who explain that nothing will happen

But regarding this specific point: PHC, so they say 3% a 4*, 7% a 3* and 90% a 2*. How will that help you at all? You already know the odds are probably worse than that, plus you never buy PHCs anyway. So, again, how will that help?

Again, for the daily crystal, the same odds I would think. NOT per character, but per star level. How will that help

So, apart from those 2 minor examples, there are no other items we buy or pull where DRs will need to be show at all

ContestOfNoobs

Even if THEY did release the % for lets say example
5* featured pulls, what difference does it make?

who cares if they say its 20%?

my feature pulls
2/3 stark
2/2 blade
1/1 modok

and
anonymous2k
0-7 iceman

Dave_the_destroyer

SteelCurtainMUT wrote: »

Absolutely, I’ve been saying this for awhile now. There’s what 70-80 champs in the 5* crystal now yet it’s convenient that my last 10 out of 12 5* crystals have been **** champs, I know not every crystal is gonna be a home run but cmon now!

I have said this before mate, what is a "****" champ? What you class as one may not be classed the same by me or many others? We firstly need to decide what one is?

Please list your last 12 5* puls honestly so we can see if we agree? AND list all other 5* champs you have, to see if the great pulls in the past have just been accepted as random by you, but rubbish ones are a fix?

And, random is random surely?

chunkyb

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's a semi-random, actually. An RNG generates outcomes with specific parameters, drop rates. It's not an even distribution where every outcome generates to fill the 100%, then recycles. In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance. Every Crystal we open. It doesn't remove the previous selection from our rolls. We could quite literally roll the same Champ everytime, albeit highly unlikely. The Crystal doesn't analyze our Account before we open it. Lol. It doesn't even know what Account is accessing the pool. It just accesses that pool and creates an outcome.

1- you don't know any of this to be true yet once again are stating it all as fact. It's sad that this is a constant theme
2-computers don't do random. Stop just trying to adjust your previous bloviating to seem correct all the time. Semi-random is the silliest thing you've said in a while, especially after you spamming rng posts for so long. Random does not exist. Semi random means not random. Calling it semi random would be like me calling your posts semi truth.
3-nothing I said in my previous post was contingent on previous pulls or the overall account, as I don't think they matter. What does matter is the rarity/value of certain champs in both the eyes of the player and kabam themselves. They would be foolish to give you the same flat chances to pull an SL as a KK. It would hurt their bottom line in the short and long run. It's a business, why shoot themselves in the foot?

chunkyb

chunkyb wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

It's a semi-random, actually. An RNG generates outcomes with specific parameters, drop rates. It's not an even distribution where every outcome generates to fill the 100%, then recycles. In the case of the 4* and 5* Crystals, there is no drop rate. It's literally a chance out of whatever number is in the Crystal at that time. If there is 44 Champs in the Crystal, it's a 1/44 chance. Every Crystal we open. It doesn't remove the previous selection from our rolls. We could quite literally roll the same Champ everytime, albeit highly unlikely. The Crystal doesn't analyze our Account before we open it. Lol. It doesn't even know what Account is accessing the pool. It just accesses that pool and creates an outcome.

1- you don't know any of this to be true yet once again are stating it all as fact. It's sad that this is a constant theme
2-computers don't do random. Stop just trying to adjust your previous bloviating to seem correct all the time. Semi-random is the silliest thing you've said in a while, especially after you spamming rng posts for so long. Random does not exist. Semi random means not random. Calling it semi random would be like me calling your posts semi truth.
3-nothing I said in my previous post was contingent on previous pulls or the overall account, as I don't think they matter. What does matter is the rarity/value of certain champs in both the eyes of the player and kabam themselves. They would be foolish to give you the same flat chances to pull an SL as a KK. It would hurt their bottom line in the short and long run. It's a business, why shoot themselves in the foot?

And to add... If all champs have the same chance of being pulled.. If there's no weighted system to disperse non-god tier champs more often.. Then it shouldn't be a big deal to disclose the algorithms or the drop rates in a way that makes that very clear for the average player. If it was really "1-44 equal chances" as another user says, then there's no reason to withhold anything at all. And I don't mean a mod saying it is "this way". Mods can be misinformed or mistaken from time to time. I mean putting an official statement up, as a company, in response to Apple.

JRock808

If Kabam has internal tiers of champs, there is no reason to assume they don't have their own drop rates associated with them.

If you believe everything Kabam says, or just assume they are doing the right thing when they don't say anything, that's great. They'd have nothing to lose by showing drop rates, since every champ has a 1/n chance of dropping.

The fact they are so anti-transparency lends itself to conspiracy theories. A situation Kabam has created. No one can state unequivocally that Kabam is honest and sincere or that they are deceptive shysters on the flip side.

The one thing we can do is get rates, compare to actual results and implement our own form of checks and balances.

Let's hope.

GroundedWisdom

They don't rank the Champs in drops based on our own bloody perception of "God Tier" versus "Garbage Tier". This is getting way too carried away. The Players have that value system. Not the game, not the developers, and certainly not the RNG for the Crystals. This entire subject just breeds suspicion more and more, like wild fire. I've said it, the Mods have said it, other Players have said it, understanding RNG dictates it, what more would it take? The answer is that no response is sufficient. For some reason, people seem to think the algorithm will be posted. Whatever comes out of this won't make a difference because people who aren't happy with what they pull won't trust anything regardless. They could post the numbers and it won't make a difference because people will still have to pull Champs they don't want. Then the suspicion starts all over again. I'm not engaging in a "You don't know Aliens don't exist for a fact." conversation. Unless people have access to the programming itself, none of us know beyond a doubt. However, some of us understand the general idea of programming and RNG, and have also listened when the response has been given from them time and time again. It's very simple. If it doesn't make sense, it's not true. What I can make sense of is repeats in RNG, and how people only pull for the same few Champs and think the system is rigged because they pulled the 90% remainder of what's left after the "God Tier". SMDH

JRock808

They have confirmed that they rank champs internally the same way we do. They may not be the exact same champions in each pool, but the concept is the same.

Why do you think they would hype Blade as the login reward, and do it well in advance of the normal login champ calendar? They know he is god tier, they know people desire him more than others.

This is not conspiracy, this is fact. So once again, wrong.

P.S. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.