What exactly are the chances that I pull the same champion from four titan crystals?

Dseptykon13Dseptykon13 Member Posts: 54 ★
in General Discussion
I don't know if I should flex this guy or be bummed.


Comments

  • Friendly001Friendly001 Member Posts: 179 ★★
    100 percent
  • VaniteliaVanitelia Member Posts: 437 ★★★
    The odds of pulling any champ is 1/18 so roughly 5.6% chance you'll get the champ you want. These odds are repeated each and every time you spin the crystal. Now, the probability that you pull the same champ on 4 consecutive spins is 1 in 18 to the 4th power or 0.00000952598. Impressive.
  • jcphillips7jcphillips7 Member Posts: 1,381 ★★★★
    Flex sure, but better yet, R3!
  • BendyBendy Member Posts: 5,763 ★★★★★
    Dseptykon13 said:

    I don't know if I should flex this guy or be bummed.


    Oh my days sig 60 damn sweet i would flex as i love the guy as he counters still the most annoying cosmics in war
  • EdisonLawEdisonLaw Member Posts: 6,082 ★★★★★
    Sym Supreme is a good champ and you should invest in him
  • Average_DesiAverage_Desi Member Posts: 425 ★★★
    The same as any other specific combination
  • JLordVileJJLordVileJ Member Posts: 3,075 ★★★★
    So jealous
  • JLordVileJJLordVileJ Member Posts: 3,075 ★★★★
    Average_Desi said:

    The same as any other specific combination

    Pretty sure you are right. Technically probability resets with each spin. You have a whatever in 100 chance each spin. Its not a case where the chance goes down for getting the same champ each time or anything like that, so as far as I understand it its not rare or anything.


    Nvm as i typed this I realised I was wrong, did some maths

    It doesn't reset, the pool of possibility just expands. Let's say there are 5 champs in a pool. V,w, x,y,z. You take 2 pulls from the pool. You get V and V so you got v twice. Out of the 10 you got 2 of the same which is a 1/20 chance if I'm correct. If you looked at it as 1/5 then technically yes the chance of you getting symbiote supreme is rarer
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,301 Guardian
    Vanitelia said:

    The odds of pulling any champ is 1/18 so roughly 5.6% chance you'll get the champ you want. These odds are repeated each and every time you spin the crystal. Now, the probability that you pull the same champ on 4 consecutive spins is 1 in 18 to the 4th power or 0.00000952598. Impressive.

    As forumer states above, it is actually (1/18)^3, not (1/18)^4.

    When in doubt in statistics, revert to first principles. How many possible combinations exist for opening four Titan crystals, each with eighteen possible drop options? That's 18x18x18x18 = 104976.

    Out of all those sequences, how many have four of the same champ? Exactly 18. For each drop option in the crystal, there's the possibility of pulling four of those.

    So the odds of pulling four of the same champ are 18 in 104976, or one in 104976/18 = 5832, or 1/5832 ~= 0.00017, or 0.017%.


    This is a common statistical mistake, and usually once people see the math they realize its just a small error. But I once got into an argument with someone about this, who insisted that his interpretation of getting six in a row (in that particular conversation) was (1/x)^6, not (1/x)^5. So I asked him if the odds of three in a row were (1/x)^3 and he said yes. And then I asked him if the odds of two in a row were (1/x)^2. And he actually didn't see the train coming along the tracks when I said, so then the odds of getting one in a row are (1/x)^1?

    In this context, that would be saying the odds of getting one champ in a row are one in eighteen. Meaning the odds of getting a champ when you spin one crystal are one in eighteen, and the odds therefore of not getting a champ at all when you spin the crystal is seventeen out of eighteen.
  • JLordVileJJLordVileJ Member Posts: 3,075 ★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    Vanitelia said:

    The odds of pulling any champ is 1/18 so roughly 5.6% chance you'll get the champ you want. These odds are repeated each and every time you spin the crystal. Now, the probability that you pull the same champ on 4 consecutive spins is 1 in 18 to the 4th power or 0.00000952598. Impressive.

    As forumer states above, it is actually (1/18)^3, not (1/18)^4.

    When in doubt in statistics, revert to first principles. How many possible combinations exist for opening four Titan crystals, each with eighteen possible drop options? That's 18x18x18x18 = 104976.

    Out of all those sequences, how many have four of the same champ? Exactly 18. For each drop option in the crystal, there's the possibility of pulling four of those.

    So the odds of pulling four of the same champ are 18 in 104976, or one in 104976/18 = 5832, or 1/5832 ~= 0.00017, or 0.017%.


    This is a common statistical mistake, and usually once people see the math they realize its just a small error. But I once got into an argument with someone about this, who insisted that his interpretation of getting six in a row (in that particular conversation) was (1/x)^6, not (1/x)^5. So I asked him if the odds of three in a row were (1/x)^3 and he said yes. And then I asked him if the odds of two in a row were (1/x)^2. And he actually didn't see the train coming along the tracks when I said, so then the odds of getting one in a row are (1/x)^1?

    In this context, that would be saying the odds of getting one champ in a row are one in eighteen. Meaning the odds of getting a champ when you spin one crystal are one in eighteen, and the odds therefore of not getting a champ at all when you spin the crystal is seventeen out of eighteen.
    I legit think you would be the only maths teacher I could ever meet that could teach me something useful, that I didn't already know.
  • Vegeta9001Vegeta9001 Member Posts: 1,690 ★★★★★
    I pulled 3 blades in a row and 3 morbius in a row from the one before that. Its more common than you'd think.
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