Battleground Blitz: Week one

DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian
With Crystal Cleanse now more or less wrapped up, its time to move on to the next Realm event: Jack's Battleground Blitz

Here's where we are:



And if we extrapolate:



The pace line aims for one billion points as the target by the end of the season.

So we're below the pace again. Are we going to fall short again? Actually, I think this is much more encouraging than Crystal Cleanse. With Crystal Cleanse, there was a big burst of effort and then a drop off to a much lower rate of openings, which would be consistent with the most enthusiastic players opening a ton of crystals early, and everyone else opening at a much slower rate throughout the event. That wasn't necessarily what had to happen, but it isn't entirely bonkers to conceive of either.

Battlegrounds is different, both in concept and in the data. The data does not show the same burst followed by drop off. Instead it shows a relatively stable point earning rate throughout the first week. Well, stable in a daily sense. In an hourly sense, BG activity is very spiky:



It is interesting to see most of the BG matches taking place in the mid day (relative to the continental US), not at night, although that actually explains a lot of my experiences finding matches in Battlegrounds (as I'm -10 GMT). But yeah, it does bounce all over the place. So let's look at points per day, and superimpose a trend line in there. With so little (daily) data it isn't terribly useful as a predictor, but it can at least tell us in which direction the trend is going overall, since that's kinda difficult to eyeball in the hourly rate graph:



Slightly upward. And with Battlegrounds, this makes sense. For one thing, we should expect participation to increase as the season goes on, because many players - including many of the lower progress players - wait until later in the season to start playing, to allow VT tiers to shake themselves out. Second, with each passing day more players are entering GC, and GC points are substantially higher for every GC match. So we should actually suspect that the first week point earning rates are the floor, not the ceiling as they were with Crystal Cleanse.

Given that, the analysis suggests that our current season trajectory puts us somewhere *higher* than 800 million points for the event. That is well within striking distance of one billion, and we should see that trend line move upward with each week. *If* participation increases over time like I believe it normally does and *if* activity continues to maintain similar levels to previous high volume seasons, then I think one billion is a viable target for the Battleground Blitz.

It is really up to us to do what we have been able to do in the past, keep up participation, keep up activity, and not get caught up in the naysayers that somehow have become convinced the targets are impossible. They aren't impossible. In fact, so long as we don't collapse in a manner unusual relative to previous seasons, I'd say we have a 75% chance to exceed one billion at our current extrapolated pace.

In summary: Crystal Cleanse week one




BGBlitz week one




That's the difference in this event. Keep doing what we're doing, and we go up from here. We'll see where we are in week two.

Comments

  • Grub88Grub88 Member Posts: 360 ★★★
    You haven’t done a very good job of proving the “naysayers” arguments unworthy 800,000 is a long way from achieving all milestones. Regardless of the results at the end the hardest workers still get the same rewards as those that get 5000 points and stop, yay for communism. Removing solo objectives was a mistake!

    Go on delete this one too
  • Grub88Grub88 Member Posts: 360 ★★★

    Grub88 said:

    You haven’t done a very good job of proving the “naysayers” arguments unworthy 800,000 is a long way from achieving all milestones. Regardless of the results at the end the hardest workers still get the same rewards as those that get 5000 points and stop, yay for communism. Removing solo objectives was a mistake!

    Go on delete this one too

    You know there's rank rewards right ?
    How do the hardest workers get same rewards if they are getting extra stuff for contributing with more points.
    Valid point but it is also a straw man’s argument. Those that get the ranked rewards will get the same milestone rewards as those that only did 5000 points and the milestones they get will only be as good as what the whole community contributes. There are also ranked rewards in normal solo objectives that have been transferred to this event noted they are not as good
  • Archit_1812Archit_1812 Member Posts: 614 ★★
    Grub88 said:

    Grub88 said:

    You haven’t done a very good job of proving the “naysayers” arguments unworthy 800,000 is a long way from achieving all milestones. Regardless of the results at the end the hardest workers still get the same rewards as those that get 5000 points and stop, yay for communism. Removing solo objectives was a mistake!

    Go on delete this one too

    You know there's rank rewards right ?
    How do the hardest workers get same rewards if they are getting extra stuff for contributing with more points.
    Valid point but it is also a straw man’s argument. Those that get the ranked rewards will get the same milestone rewards as those that only did 5000 points and the milestones they get will only be as good as what the whole community contributes. There are also ranked rewards in normal solo objectives that have been transferred to this event noted they are not as good
    Let's be realistic here. We are just one week in. From what I've noticed, around two and a half to three weeks in, pretty much everyone gets separated into either GC, or into higher VT progressions. When we reach the peak, more GC partcipants play, we receive almost double points from 25% of the BG population, maybe 30% because of the Realm Event. When BG hogs will grind for rank rewards at the end of the season, we will see a spike. So, the graph won't continue to be linear, I have a surety we can see a rise in slope.
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Member Posts: 5,391 ★★★★★
    edited October 10
    Grub88 said:

    [Deleted]

  • xLunatiXxxLunatiXx Member Posts: 1,443 ★★★★★
    What about the players only reaching GC and then stopping? It would certainly counter balance those extra points from GC from the grinders
  • PT_99PT_99 Member Posts: 4,892 ★★★★★
    No my Titan crystal 😭😭
  • PikoluPikolu Member, Guardian Posts: 8,006 Guardian
    xLunatiXx said:

    What about the players only reaching GC and then stopping? It would certainly counter balance those extra points from GC from the grinders

    If we see trends go upwards, then people who normally park in GC might be encouraged to do more matches so they hit the minimum points required. For me personally, I'm almost at GC and I only have less than 2k points. That's quite a ways from the 5k for the Titan crystal, so people who are motivated for the Titan are going to need to push GC (or farm the bottom tiers of it) for quite a bit.
  • ButtehrsButtehrs Member Posts: 6,287 ★★★★★
    edited October 10
    Something is off though. Kabam Crashed, I believe, stated were on pace to hit all milestones. Well, the 1 billion milestone at least. So which is it?
  • PikoluPikolu Member, Guardian Posts: 8,006 Guardian
    edited October 10
    Buttehrs said:

    Something is off though. Kabam Crashed, I believe, stated were on pace to hit all milestones. Well, the 1 billion milestone at least. So which is it?


    Not sure where you got "all milestones" from, meet or exceed the 1 billion milestone
  • SirGamesBondSirGamesBond Member Posts: 5,391 ★★★★★
    PT_99 said:

    No my Titan crystal 😭😭

    Sig 20 northstar?
  • ButtehrsButtehrs Member Posts: 6,287 ★★★★★
    Pikolu said:

    Buttehrs said:

    Something is off though. Kabam Crashed, I believe, stated were on pace to hit all milestones. Well, the 1 billion milestone at least. So which is it?


    Not sure where you got "all milestones" from, meet or exceed the 1 billion milestone
    Literally says in your reply of the crashed Quote? On pace to meet 1 billion.
  • PT_99PT_99 Member Posts: 4,892 ★★★★★

    PT_99 said:

    No my Titan crystal 😭😭

    Sig 20 northstar?
    On second thought, I don't want that Titan now,
    Thanks for opening my eyes 🙏
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian
    Buttehrs said:

    Something is off though. Kabam Crashed, I believe, stated were on pace to hit all milestones. Well, the 1 billion milestone at least. So which is it?

    Crashed has data I don’t. In particular, he has the exact data on how participation trends over a season. I’m pretty sure participation, and with it points generation, go generally up as the season progresses. But Crashed can just look at the past data and extrapolate what our points will likely be if the same trends persist during the season.

    All I can say with reasonable certainty, given the data I’ve collected, is: if we continue as we are we will hit 800m, and if we do more than just continue on as we have we will go higher. Crashed can actually calculate how much higher.

    Crashed and I are not in disagreement. My picture is just blurrier than his is.

    Did I mention Crashed and I chat from time to time? Crashed and I chat from time to time.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,846 Guardian
    xLunatiXx said:

    What about the players only reaching GC and then stopping? It would certainly counter balance those extra points from GC from the grinders

    Not exactly.

    We know some percentage of players enter GC every season. We know that some percentage of them grind on, and some park as you mention. That’s always true. But there’s no reason to believe that there will be a larger number of “parkers” this season versus previous seasons. If there is more participation, then more people get to GC. Some fraction of them will continue to play, and thus continue to score more points. That will be points we don’t normally get.

    The idea is not that GC has more points, so the player base automatically scores more points. The idea is every season some fraction of players enter GC and some fraction of those continue to play and score points. On a relative basis, those will score more points in GC than they were scoring in VT. For the same amount of activity, points per player will rise.

    So if engagement continues to rise during the season and more players are both playing in VT and entering GC, more players will equal more points, and more players in GC will also equal more points per match, both of which are positive influences on our scoring. Individual players will play or not play, but what matters are the big picture statistics. How many play in VT, how many play in GC. And to play in GC, you have to be in GC.
  • AzdefAzdef Member Posts: 270 ★★
    So there seems a lot of discourse and negativity surrounding the event. I am a valiant with an average size roster and skill, currently on 4500pts and 8420 EM's in GC. I think we are getting a fair amount of EM's in the milestones as well.
    I think if we just play normally and not make it out to be all doom and gloom, 5000 should not be a problem.
    Honestly, if I can do it with my skill level and roster I am sure you guys can do it easily.
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