What's the math on the Goblin Army event?

So I was wondering how far I'm going to get, as a FTP player, into the later milestones on the Goblin Army event.

It seems I'm not alone:
https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/412187/goblin-army-tracker#latest

The trouble for me is that this is an event in which your success is completely based on RNG: you have to open randomised crystals to get Goblins. Get enough goblins, and you get the goodies.

So, will we get enough goblins?
As far as I can figure it, here's the math (or maths, if you're from the UK like me):

There are 38 Goblin shard crystals available in the milestones we currently see.

The drop rates are
10 goblins 35%
20 goblins 35%
35 goblins 17%
50 goblins 8%
Greater Goblin Army crystal 4%
400 goblins 1%

Projected pulls from 38 crystals:
There will be two Grace crystals giving a Greater Goblin Army crystals with ??? goblins. These aren't visible anywhere in the game yet, as far as I can see. But other people might have claimed then already, and can tell us how much they deliver, below.

That leaves 36 crystals, generating:
36x10x0.35 = 126 goblins
36x20x0.35 = 252 goblins
36x35x0.17 = 214 goblins
36x???x0.04 = 1.44x???
36x400x0.01 = 144 goblins

Total = 736 goblins + 3.44 x whatever is the average yield from the Greater Goblin crystal

The final milestone requires 2000 points

So for the average player to reach that, the average yield from the Greater Goblin crystal will need to be:
(2000-736) / 3.44 = 367 Goblins

I'm reasonably sure that it won't be - for comparison, the yield from the regular Goblin crystal is 20.4 goblins (736/36). So the greater goblin crystal will need to have 18 times the yield of the regular crystal, if the average FTP player is going to hit that final milestone.

So for the determinedly FTP, I'm going to conservatively estimate the average FTP player will get around 800 Goblins.

Now, that's not necessarily a problem. I don't want to sound too negative - that'll put the average person here:

So, the average player will comfortably get a 6* Magik. Which I think we can say it's good: if we couldn't get her without spending, it would feel less than ideal.

But we're not getting much further up the milestones without a lot of luck, or a lot of these:

Anyone with numbers relating to the Greater Goblin crystal, do add them in - thanks 🙂

Comments

Magrailothos

*I should note, of course: all this presumed that there aren't any more objectives coming...

Sundance_2099

Is the only way to get these by playing Battlegrounds?

Disthene_T

The grace timer for the Greater Goblin crystal should probably be accounted for too. I didn't take a screenshot of the odd within it but it payed out well (a few hundred goblins). I think it should be possible for 2 guaranteed Greater Goblins by end of event.

XxLoOhNuTiCkxX

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2934855#Comment_2934855

20k through an objective for completing the AW war path

Magrailothos

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2934855#Comment_2934855

If you do all the Battlegrounds milestones, and the Alliance War showcase, you'll get enough shards for 38 crystals.

SirGamesBond

1130 is my final score. I got 2 gauranteed ones which didn't give much.

lucianxvs

From 24 crystals I got 600 goblins, only have 14 left to grind, idk if I’ll even get to 1k goblins

DOCTAHHHDOOOMMMMMM

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2934851#Comment_2934851

Are we getting more objectives though? You’d also think that for such tedious objectives, they’d be more rewarding and that something so tedious feels like the only objective

DOCTAHHHDOOOMMMMMM

I do hope we get more objectives for goblins, this event never came off as an event that would need spending to reach the end. And it’s not like they haven’t given away things more extravagant than a class 7* nexus for free, I really hope this isn’t all the goblins we get

GroundedWisdom

I've done the War path, and a few Milestones, and I'm almost at the 6* Magik. Still a number to go, so I'd say there's a fair amount to get.

Smeagz23

Yah i hope we get more ways to get them because i’m only like halfway through milestones with current objectives. I dont know why they didn’t lay out all the ways to get them like they usually do for events like this.

Buttehrs

Assuming we'll most likely get more from the actual side quest when it starts next week.

DOCTAHHHDOOOMMMMMM

Actually, a few hours ago from Seatin:

Confirmed with Kabam, more Goblin Crystal shards will be available from March 11th from

March Incursions Event
International Woman's Day Challenge

Usagicassidy

It's pretty ridiculous to make the 'rewards' for this RNG-based. Like, why? They should all be a flat rate for all players.

Herbal_Taxman

this event sucks. Objectives are brutal, RNg-fiesta. There’s seriously nothing more pointless in this game than an unranked BGs match.

Magrailothos

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2934916#Comment_2934916

Thanks, man. Screenshot of the above:

Also, I pulled a couple of Greater Goblin crystals:

So, the yield from these should be:

250x0.1 + 200x0.2 + 100x0.35 + 150x0.35

= 152.5

That brings the total expected yield from these (we're pretty sure, initial) milestones to:

736 + 3.44 x 152.5 = 1260 goblins

Magrailothos

Just wanted to try working out how many more Goblin crystals the average player will be needing:

They'll have got approx 1260 Goblins from this first set of 38 Goblin shard crystals.

Overall average yield 1260/38 = 33 goblins per crystal

Projecting forwards, if we want the "average player" to reach the 2000 points, they'll need another 740 points.

That'll require another 23 crystals (or shard equivalents) for the average player to hit 2000 points.

Hopefully there'll be more than 23 crystals available later in March, since that would still leave a lot of slightly unlucky grinders short 😥

winterthur

I only have 5 more. Don’t know if I can get past Founders’ War.

Hopefully can reach milestone number 9.