Crazy odds or problem?

I purchased three of the Odin offers yesterday on my alt account to grow it some with 3 new 5*s. I had 3 already. But of the 3 crystals I opened I duplicated my captain America OG all 3 times. So not one new champ.

The odds for that to happen must be astronomical, I believe there was an issue with the basic crystals yesterday beyond the issue with the 5* Marvelous crystal.

When I send in a support ticket they respond with that’s perfectly normal and it is luck based, sorry.

We all know that’s a garbage/generic reply, right?

Thoughts?

Comments

Speedbump

Talk with google play app or apple, and send in a ticket with them. They may give you a refund.....

SassyMasty

It may just be odds... It seems impossible to tell. However, I'm sort of in the same boat: Every time I use a 5* crystal, the very next champion that I get from a 4* crystal is very often the champion that I got from the 5*. This has happened to me several times in a row to me now. For instance, the other day I pulled a 5* hela from the 5* basic, then went to open a 4* and got hela again.

Mosh

Apple never does refunds in my experience. I haven’t even bothered Trying kn over a year.

I’d rather them just remove two dupes and iso, and refund me 2 basic crystals. They know it isn’t supposed to happen like that. The odds are absurd for 1 dupe much less for 3 back to back.

DrBruceWayne

I had enough shards for a 4* crystal, got Cap WW2

Then later in the day fully explored Act 3, opened the 4* crystal, guess what I got? CAP WW2!!!

Just bad odds imo

Qbdnfrhu

I got Jane foster three times in a row

RichiesDad79

Seems like something is broken. There's no way.....

Panchulon21

It’s not impossible, highly unlikely but not impossible. Sorry you had that bad of luck but I’ve seen it happen before. The odds are super low basically 1/65 per open. Sorry man

Aleks112358

Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
There are 92 champs in them.
So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
= 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.

Mosh

Aleks112358 wrote: »

Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
There are 92 champs in them.
So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
= 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.

Totally agree, yet Kabam believes it to be “normal”.. no, they just don’t care when their stuff breaks, only the whales are worthy of any form of help when there is an obvious error.

Omni

It’s happened to other people much more than it should. Begs the question if drop rates are actually accurate or were just placed to appease us...

I’ve pulled the same champ 3 times in a row from premiums

1TapTakeANap

This could very well be deemed as false advertising if proven truthful and if that happens it will allow a hefty amount of people to refund transactions for basically anything related to MCOC.

DNA3000

Aleks112358 wrote: »

Im assuming these are the basic 5* crystals.
There are 92 champs in them.
So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
= 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.

Except the first one could have been any champ: the significance here is almost certainly that the pull was three identical champs in a row, not three Captain Americas. The odds of that happening are one in 8464 (1/92 x 1/92). That's rare, but not astronomically rare.

You can't just compute the odds of three specific champions happening in sequence, because the odds of any sequence of three specific champions are exactly the same. The last three 5* basic champs I pulled were Red Hulk, MODOK, and BPCW. The odds of that specific sequence occurring is equally rare: 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92. But there's no significance to that sequence. Had I specifically wanted that specific sequence in that order prior to opening it and then got it, then the odds would have been astronomically high against that happening.

DNA3000

Omni wrote: »

It’s happened to other people much more than it should. Begs the question if drop rates are actually accurate or were just placed to appease us...

I’ve pulled the same champ 3 times in a row from premiums

If it was a question of drop rates, then everyone should be getting not just multiples, but the *same* multiples and that doesn't happen. It is an open question as to whether the system has a correlation flaw in its lootbox code. Such a thing could cause duplicates to happen more often than random chance would predict, but which champions were duplicated at any moment in time would still be distributed randomly, and every champ would drop equally often.

I have often wondered if such a bug exists, because I have suspicions, but insufficient data to back those up statistically.

DankestChef

doesn't sound possible. any screenshot/proof?

Mosh

the third is above the kingpin and a 5* rocket someone else opened.

Mosh

Noob2435

That's awful

TitoBandito187

This is why I no longer buy a single thing. The game is RNG. OK. However I truly believe that half the players have good luck and half have bad luck (mostly in both cases) and it all evens out in the eyes of Kabam statistically, but not for each player. My 20x 5* are mostlybtrash with a few ok and only one duped Moonknight. Yet, I see accounts with a handful of 5* that have duped blade, AA and sparky and one bad champ. After 1.5 years of daily play, I should have at least one 5* to take to R4, but nope, im sitting on 9x t2a with no one worthy of any of it.
I’m not forking another dime over unless I can get a guaranteed champ or good odds like the $1 - 4* deal last year where Hulk was the worst pull.

I can’t imagine your disappointment. There is no way in hell that was a legit statistical anomaly. That was Kabam101 at its finest.

New_Noob168

You guys may be fooled into thinking it’s random. It isn’t

Rafikii

okay, maybe you hit the jack pot tho. just with incorrect symbols.
What if all 3 were blade, im sure you wouldnt have complained then.
You just got unlucky. Unlucky as it can get tbh, but, unlucky nevertheless

DankestChef

Holy **** that's crazy. I'm sorry man

Mosh

Rafikii wrote: »

okay, maybe you hit the jack pot tho. just with incorrect symbols.
What if all 3 were blade, im sure you wouldnt have complained then.
You just got unlucky. Unlucky as it can get tbh, but, unlucky nevertheless

1 blade dupe is plenty, still two wasted crystals.. no one cares about prestige on a level 32 acct either. Several new champs is the only point to buy those offers at this level. Wether they end up on defense or offense.