**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
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Crazy odds or problem?
Mosh
Posts: 18
I purchased three of the Odin offers yesterday on my alt account to grow it some with 3 new 5*s. I had 3 already. But of the 3 crystals I opened I duplicated my captain America OG all 3 times. So not one new champ.
The odds for that to happen must be astronomical, I believe there was an issue with the basic crystals yesterday beyond the issue with the 5* Marvelous crystal.
When I send in a support ticket they respond with that’s perfectly normal and it is luck based, sorry.
We all know that’s a garbage/generic reply, right?
Thoughts?
The odds for that to happen must be astronomical, I believe there was an issue with the basic crystals yesterday beyond the issue with the 5* Marvelous crystal.
When I send in a support ticket they respond with that’s perfectly normal and it is luck based, sorry.
We all know that’s a garbage/generic reply, right?
Thoughts?
3
Comments
I’d rather them just remove two dupes and iso, and refund me 2 basic crystals. They know it isn’t supposed to happen like that. The odds are absurd for 1 dupe much less for 3 back to back.
Then later in the day fully explored Act 3, opened the 4* crystal, guess what I got? CAP WW2!!!
Just bad odds imo
There are 92 champs in them.
So P(captain america 3x) = 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92
= 0.0000012842 = 0.00012842%
That's almost like getting 4 goldpools from 4 pools gold crystals. The odds of that are so low that.... well, it should never really have happened.
Totally agree, yet Kabam believes it to be “normal”.. no, they just don’t care when their stuff breaks, only the whales are worthy of any form of help when there is an obvious error.
I’ve pulled the same champ 3 times in a row from premiums
Except the first one could have been any champ: the significance here is almost certainly that the pull was three identical champs in a row, not three Captain Americas. The odds of that happening are one in 8464 (1/92 x 1/92). That's rare, but not astronomically rare.
You can't just compute the odds of three specific champions happening in sequence, because the odds of any sequence of three specific champions are exactly the same. The last three 5* basic champs I pulled were Red Hulk, MODOK, and BPCW. The odds of that specific sequence occurring is equally rare: 1/92 x 1/92 x 1/92. But there's no significance to that sequence. Had I specifically wanted that specific sequence in that order prior to opening it and then got it, then the odds would have been astronomically high against that happening.
If it was a question of drop rates, then everyone should be getting not just multiples, but the *same* multiples and that doesn't happen. It is an open question as to whether the system has a correlation flaw in its lootbox code. Such a thing could cause duplicates to happen more often than random chance would predict, but which champions were duplicated at any moment in time would still be distributed randomly, and every champ would drop equally often.
I have often wondered if such a bug exists, because I have suspicions, but insufficient data to back those up statistically.
the third is above the kingpin and a 5* rocket someone else opened.
I’m not forking another dime over unless I can get a guaranteed champ or good odds like the $1 - 4* deal last year where Hulk was the worst pull.
I can’t imagine your disappointment. There is no way in hell that was a legit statistical anomaly. That was Kabam101 at its finest.
What if all 3 were blade, im sure you wouldnt have complained then.
You just got unlucky. Unlucky as it can get tbh, but, unlucky nevertheless
1 blade dupe is plenty, still two wasted crystals.. no one cares about prestige on a level 32 acct either. Several new champs is the only point to buy those offers at this level. Wether they end up on defense or offense.