Incredible RNG?!

winterthur

Could not help not posting this.

What are the odds?

Comments

Suel

V1PER1987 wrote: »

The funny thing is if it’s Magneto or Groot people would complain about RNG. If someone pulled 3 Blades or Sparkies, RNG wouldn’t even be questioned.

have u seen it? Cause i havent, i only see spam of awful pulls. My Iron Patriot is lvl 80

Kushstar420

winterthur wrote: »

Could not help not posting this.

What are the odds?

the odds are always in your unwanted favour

V1PER1987

Suel wrote: »

V1PER1987 wrote: »

The funny thing is if it’s Magneto or Groot people would complain about RNG. If someone pulled 3 Blades or Sparkies, RNG wouldn’t even be questioned.

have u seen it? Cause i havent, i only see spam of awful pulls. My Iron Patriot is lvl 80

Actually yes I have. There are actually some very lucky people in this game. I’ve seen someone pull 2-3 Blades in one opening. I was just more or less making a point though.

Suel

V1PER1987 wrote: »

Suel wrote: »

V1PER1987 wrote: »

The funny thing is if it’s Magneto or Groot people would complain about RNG. If someone pulled 3 Blades or Sparkies, RNG wouldn’t even be questioned.

have u seen it? Cause i havent, i only see spam of awful pulls. My Iron Patriot is lvl 80

Actually yes I have. There are actually some very lucky people in this game. I’ve seen someone pull 2-3 Blades in one opening. I was just more or less making a point though.

Well, u can add me in there then, on Blade last featured crystal i also opened 4 crystals and pulled:

Jane Foster
Blade
King Groot
Blade

Yes that was very lucky, but those crystals had much higher odds, i think it was 20%, since they changed to this 24 champions featured, most of the pulls are trash

unknown

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CoatHang3r

Midknight007 wrote: »

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Midknight007 wrote: »

If RNG assigns a number to every probable outcome and then randomly rolls a number, the odds of this happening are 1 in 1,225,043. Basically, a 0.00000082% chance of this ever happening.

That’s correct if the question is what are the odds of pulling/rolling Magneto 3 times.

However, If the question is what are the odds of pulling the same champion 3 times, He had a 1:107 chance to pull the same champion as the first and then another 1:107 chance to do it again. 1:11,449.

True. Though you have to pull the champ first... you can’t null the first pull’s 1 in 107 odd. It does lock the odds of the next two as you state once a champ is know, but remember the pull of the first champ is still as random as the other two pulls. The odds I state are the odds of pulling any champ 3 times if a row.

Eh the odds of pulling a champion from a 5 star crystal is 100% so the first champ is a non event, the significance of the pulls comes from pulling that first champion 2 more times. The odds of duplicating the first champion you pull twice from the current pool is 1:11,449. But hey don’t let it get in the way of a good fish tale.

unknown

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mostlyharmlessn

Well let's not forget, this is NOT true RNG, it's pRNG or pseudo Random Number Generator.

Without knowing which method is used for pRNG calculations, we really can not determine how good or bad the generation of random numbers are.

Through casual observation, I would guess they are using a basic one like the LCC one built into Java because they are fast, but all in all not very good, especially if there's a bug with the seeding code, which is why we see these pulls that are very unlikely to happen...

unknown

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CoatHang3r

NomedYeshua wrote: »

Happened to me with cyclops lol. But the ring astounds me, being that when you use an awakening gem on a champ. Statistics appear to be VERY HIGH that you pull that champ you just awakened Within the next pull or two. Has happened way to many times to ppl across the board.

Happens about 1% of the time someone uses an awakening gem; 4% of the time if a featured 5*. Compound that with people only reporting pulling a champion they just awakened instead of when they do not it appears to be common when it’s actually not.

Besides they should be grateful for the pull since they deemed the character’s signature level valuable and increased it by duplicating the champion.

KattohS

V1PER1987 wrote: »

The funny thing is if it’s Magneto or Groot people would complain about RNG. If someone pulled 3 Blades or Sparkies, RNG wouldn’t even be questioned.

Has it ever happened with a “god tier” champ like that tho?

Somebody pulling more than two in one spin session?

djr17

KattohS wrote: »

V1PER1987 wrote: »

The funny thing is if it’s Magneto or Groot people would complain about RNG. If someone pulled 3 Blades or Sparkies, RNG wouldn’t even be questioned.

Has it ever happened with a “god tier” champ like that tho?

Somebody pulling more than two in one spin session?

Stryke71121 wrote: »

yeah had it happen to me on my secondary account but it was medusa. so i was happy. if it would have been mag yuck

Nope, never.

DrZola

The beautiful thing is when you have a stroke of what should be awesome luck but it’s still a cringeworthy result.

Example: Ultimate AW Defense crystal.

Odds of a 5*: 20%.

Odds of a 5* Groot (or any other individual 5*)? ~ 0.6%.

Dr. Zola

DrZola

mostlyharmlessn wrote: »

Well let's not forget, this is NOT true RNG, it's pRNG or pseudo Random Number Generator.

Without knowing which method is used for pRNG calculations, we really can not determine how good or bad the generation of random numbers are.

Through casual observation, I would guess they are using a basic one like the LCC one built into Java because they are fast, but all in all not very good, especially if there's a bug with the seeding code, which is why we see these pulls that are very unlikely to happen...

Relevant point. And without any sort of “report” on the actual distribution of results, it’s hard to evaluate the effectiveness of the pRNG program used in game.

Not venturing into tinfoil hat territory, but I love it when people regurgitate that “it’s random” when they really have no idea exactly what version of “random” it may or may not be.

Dr. Zola

CoatHang3r

DrZola wrote: »

mostlyharmlessn wrote: »

Well let's not forget, this is NOT true RNG, it's pRNG or pseudo Random Number Generator.

Without knowing which method is used for pRNG calculations, we really can not determine how good or bad the generation of random numbers are.

Through casual observation, I would guess they are using a basic one like the LCC one built into Java because they are fast, but all in all not very good, especially if there's a bug with the seeding code, which is why we see these pulls that are very unlikely to happen...

Relevant point. And without any sort of “report” on the actual distribution of results, it’s hard to evaluate the effectiveness of the pRNG program used in game.

Not venturing into tinfoil hat territory, but I love it when people regurgitate that “it’s random” when they really have no idea exactly what version of “random” it may or may not be.

Dr. Zola

Nothing truly is random. I love it when people use semantics. When you are able to predict the outcomes it’s no longer random. Are you saying you can reliably predict the outcome of any random event in game?

DrZola

CoatHang3r wrote: »

DrZola wrote: »

mostlyharmlessn wrote: »

Well let's not forget, this is NOT true RNG, it's pRNG or pseudo Random Number Generator.

Without knowing which method is used for pRNG calculations, we really can not determine how good or bad the generation of random numbers are.

Through casual observation, I would guess they are using a basic one like the LCC one built into Java because they are fast, but all in all not very good, especially if there's a bug with the seeding code, which is why we see these pulls that are very unlikely to happen...

Relevant point. And without any sort of “report” on the actual distribution of results, it’s hard to evaluate the effectiveness of the pRNG program used in game.

Not venturing into tinfoil hat territory, but I love it when people regurgitate that “it’s random” when they really have no idea exactly what version of “random” it may or may not be.

Dr. Zola

Nothing truly is random. I love it when people use semantics. When you are able to predict the outcomes it’s no longer random. Are you saying you can reliably predict the outcome of any random event in game?

If only I could. I would have had an avalanche of incredible pulls since summer instead of the flotilla of fodder I got, and I never would have run my champs out to get a poison and heal block debuff on Double or Nothing. My comment wasn’t a jab at you.

I’m sure you’re aware, but if you look at pRNG systems (as an example: pRNG in Java, which uses a type of LCG), there are better ones and worse ones (that is, closer or less close to true random). Some older versions have a greater tendency to produce less random, even “batchy” or skewed results, especially when you are dependent on seeding to get to to the pseudo-random result. Other versions do better.

I don’t know what particular version the game uses, which is why I tend to call it Kabam’s version of RNG, whatever that is. It probably works well enough for most things, but for others it may be a main reason you see results like the one at top of this thread.

Dr. Zola

winterthur

Could not help not posting this.

What are the odds?

What are the odds?