5% in the real world is rare to never

CatherineCatherine Member Posts: 186 ★
in General Discussion
just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • WerewrymWerewrym Member Posts: 2,830 ★★★★★
    Catherine said:

    just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.

    It could have been her base ability or duped ability which give her additional % chance of evading attacks. It's really hard to distinguish on champs like Wasp which evades come from champion abilities and which come from the global node.
  • StewmanStewman Member Posts: 735 ★★★
    I don't like the global nodes/defense tactics in war at all.
    Some you don't really notice, others can make fights very difficult.
  • LormifLormif Member Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Catherine said:

    just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.

    5% makes the probability to happen once every 20 hits, on average.
  • PrathapPrathap Member Posts: 582 ★★★
    Lormif said:

    Catherine said:

    just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.

    5% makes the probability to happen once every 20 hits, on average.
    5% is per hit right.... So it's pretty much you may have it for every attack or you may never encounter it... That's how the probability works right :wink:
  • LormifLormif Member Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Prathap said:

    Lormif said:

    Catherine said:

    just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.

    5% makes the probability to happen once every 20 hits, on average.
    5% is per hit right.... So it's pretty much you may have it for every attack or you may never encounter it... That's how the probability works right :wink:
    correct, I am not sure if you are trying to counter me somehow or agree with me. Over a string of long enough sample size it will be about once every 20 hits though.
  • PrathapPrathap Member Posts: 582 ★★★
    Lormif said:

    Prathap said:

    Lormif said:

    Catherine said:

    just fought a small defender in aw with 5% evade global node. unduped wasp evaded every light and medium i threw at her. 5% in kabam numbers is 80% unless it's a crystal opening.

    5% makes the probability to happen once every 20 hits, on average.
    5% is per hit right.... So it's pretty much you may have it for every attack or you may never encounter it... That's how the probability works right :wink:
    correct, I am not sure if you are trying to counter me somehow or agree with me. Over a string of long enough sample size it will be about once every 20 hits though.
    Not countering just stating as example :)
  • Kobster84Kobster84 Member Posts: 2,898 ★★★★★
    I honestly do think wasp is bugged as I don’t think I’ve ever not been evaded on the first hit from the 33% chance
  • RaganatorRaganator Member Posts: 2,543 ★★★★★
    BW....3% chance. 3%.
  • LormifLormif Member Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    Raganator said:

    BW....3% chance. 3%.

    what is 3%? not wasp
  • DTMelodicMetalDTMelodicMetal Member Posts: 2,785 ★★★★★
    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Makes you feel good about the company you game with when they blatantly lie to your face to try to swipe money from your pockets

    There is no lie here. 5% does not mean it will only happen on 1 in 20 hits. Additionally, remember that Wasp has her own Evade ability built in to her kit in addition to the one she gains from the Defense Tactic.
    Wasp is one of the best defenders in the new small global war node. At max sig you have enough time to land a single 5-hit combo before her timer resets. Adding a 5% chance to evade every attack makes true strike or Quake or another evade counter like Emma a must for Wasp fights that have the global small node.
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • beaupoembeaupoem Member Posts: 443 ★
    what node was she on? if it was on "the best defense" that could've increased her evade rate as well
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • UnknownUnknown
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  • EvilEmpireEvilEmpire Member Posts: 639 ★★★
    A lot of guys are using the “small” defence tactic which makes wasp even more annoying so probably that 🤷‍♂️
  • hephaestushephaestus Member Posts: 145 ★
    edited July 2019
    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Makes you feel good about the company you game with when they blatantly lie to your face to try to swipe money from your pockets

    There is no lie here. 5% does not mean it will only happen on 1 in 20 hits. Additionally, remember that Wasp has her own Evade ability built in to her kit in addition to the one she gains from the Defense Tactic.

    You're lying. We've all seen BW bust out back-to-back 3% evades, and then in the next combo, and again in the next combo.
    There is no benefit for me to lie here. In fact, it's a huge detriment. Even with a 3% chance, it doesn't mean that Black Widow wouldn't be able to evade every single attack you throw, though that would be highly unlikely.
    This right here. She has a 3% chance of evading any incoming hit. And while that doesn't sound like much, it can be a lot more than the idea of her only evading 3% of all your hits on average.
    That's not true.

    (1 hit * .03 chance to evade) * 100 hits = 3 hits evaded
    100 hits * .03 chance to evade = 3 hits evaded

    If minuscule odds in real life worked like they do in MCOC, buying lottery tickets would be a sound business strategy.
  • Bear3Bear3 Member Posts: 996 ★★★
    No, that’s not true ☝🏼 😂.

    🐻
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • hephaestushephaestus Member Posts: 145 ★
    edited July 2019
    UmbertoDelRio said:

    hephaestus said:

    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Makes you feel good about the company you game with when they blatantly lie to your face to try to swipe money from your pockets

    There is no lie here. 5% does not mean it will only happen on 1 in 20 hits. Additionally, remember that Wasp has her own Evade ability built in to her kit in addition to the one she gains from the Defense Tactic.

    You're lying. We've all seen BW bust out back-to-back 3% evades, and then in the next combo, and again in the next combo.
    There is no benefit for me to lie here. In fact, it's a huge detriment. Even with a 3% chance, it doesn't mean that Black Widow wouldn't be able to evade every single attack you throw, though that would be highly unlikely.
    This right here. She has a 3% chance of evading any incoming hit. And while that doesn't sound like much, it can be a lot more than the idea of her only evading 3% of all your hits on average.
    That's not true.

    (1 hit * .03 chance to evade) * 100 hits = 3 hits evaded
    100 hits * .03 chance to evade = 3 hits evaded

    If minuscule odds in real life worked like they do in MCOC, buying lottery tickets would be a sound business strategy.
    You didn't understand what I said and used two ways of describing the wrong train of thought leading to the conclusion of op and several others.

    Bravo?

    Her 3% chance to evade any hit doesn't care about some on average expected result.
    Some people on here, though, seem to treat it exactly like that and are shocked about the extremely improbable event of her evading more often than the expected average value in a ridiculously small sample size.
    Explain mathematically how the sum of individual 3%'s of any sample size can be greater than 3% of that same sample size please. Because that exactly what you are saying. I'm not misunderstanding you. Perhaps you are not describing your thoughts accurately?
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,665 Guardian
    hephaestus said:

    UmbertoDelRio said:

    hephaestus said:

    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    TickleMeElmo said:

    Makes you feel good about the company you game with when they blatantly lie to your face to try to swipe money from your pockets

    There is no lie here. 5% does not mean it will only happen on 1 in 20 hits. Additionally, remember that Wasp has her own Evade ability built in to her kit in addition to the one she gains from the Defense Tactic.

    You're lying. We've all seen BW bust out back-to-back 3% evades, and then in the next combo, and again in the next combo.
    There is no benefit for me to lie here. In fact, it's a huge detriment. Even with a 3% chance, it doesn't mean that Black Widow wouldn't be able to evade every single attack you throw, though that would be highly unlikely.
    This right here. She has a 3% chance of evading any incoming hit. And while that doesn't sound like much, it can be a lot more than the idea of her only evading 3% of all your hits on average.
    That's not true.

    (1 hit * .03 chance to evade) * 100 hits = 3 hits evaded
    100 hits * .03 chance to evade = 3 hits evaded

    If minuscule odds in real life worked like they do in MCOC, buying lottery tickets would be a sound business strategy.
    You didn't understand what I said and used two ways of describing the wrong train of thought leading to the conclusion of op and several others.

    Bravo?

    Her 3% chance to evade any hit doesn't care about some on average expected result.
    Some people on here, though, seem to treat it exactly like that and are shocked about the extremely improbable event of her evading more often than the expected average value in a ridiculously small sample size.
    Explain mathematically how the sum of individual 3%'s of any sample size can be greater than 3% of that same sample size please. Because that exactly what you are saying. I'm not misunderstanding you. Perhaps you are not describing your thoughts accurately?
    You're incorrectly adding probabilities, but that's wrong. If this actually worked, then the 50% chance for a coin to come up heads times two would mean there would be a 100% chance for a coin to come up heads at least once out of two flips. But that's obviously false.

    The correct way to combine probabilities is to use what is known as the fundamental counting principle. It works like this. There's a 50% chance for a coin to come up heads and a 50% chance to come up tails. In one flip there are two possibilities: heads or tails. After that flip, regardless of whether it comes up heads or tails there is still two possibilities for the second flip: heads or tails. That means if the coin comes up heads on the first flip the two possibilities for two flips are HH and HT. If the coin comes up tails on the first flip the two possibilities for two flips are TH and TT. Therefore, there are four possibilities in total: HH, HT, TH, TT. There is a one out of four chance of getting no heads at all, and a one out of four chance of getting two heads. There's two out of four chance of getting one head and one tail, because there's two distinct ways for that to happen out of all four possibilities.

    All of statistical math is based on this principle, and arithmetical shortcuts to sum the possibilities.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Member, Guardian Posts: 19,665 Guardian
    Just to expand a bit, if there's a 3% chance for something to happen and a 97% chance for something to not happen, then the fundamental counting principle would work something like this. In the first swing, there are one hundred possibilities: EEEHHHHHHHH....H. Three evades and ninety seven hits. For each of those possibilities you'd expand one swing more: each "E" could be followed by any of the "EEEHHHHH...HH" and so on. No one would actually do that and count them up, but it may now seem more obvious that in the first swing 97% of the swings are "H". After two swings 97% of the second swings are also H, which means 3% of all the original "H"'s become "HE" and there's only 97% of 97% that is "HH". After three swings, the number of sequences that is "HHH" is 97% of 97% of 97% - the number of "survivors" keeps getting cut by 3%. This is where the M^N math in statistics comes from.
  • iRetr0iRetr0 Member Posts: 1,252 ★★★★
    People seem to get the wrong idea of the probabilities in MCOC. The crystal drop rates and/or evade chances are NOT cumulative, each is, in a way, its own entity, therefore seperate.
  • UnknownUnknown
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