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Cavalier crystals seem to be only dropping 3*s.

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Comments

  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 36,236 ★★★★★
    DNA3000 said:

    May_The_Way said:

    The majority of the time, you are going to pull 3*’s. It’s pretty well known at this point. Better to just save your money/units then keep getting disappointed.

    At this point, I kind of wish everyone who believed this conspiracy theory stopped buying the crystals, so they aren't constantly reporting improper analysis of faulty data. Some of the people promoting this idea publicly seem to have a fundamental lack of understanding of basic arithmetic, much less statistics.

    If the people who think the crystals are rigged contrary to the reported drop odds would stop buying them, literally everyone would be happier: those who stopped buying them, and those who continued buying them. Rarely does anyone have the option to make everyone happier with a trivial action. I wish they would take it.
    I agree with everything you said, but they do somewhat have a point. The majority of outcomes are 3*s in the technical sense, in that it's the majority outcome. It could also go either way. Someone could have a string of good luck. I agree with the conspiracy bit. Nothing hidden about them. Just RNG.
  • te_dua_shumte_dua_shum Posts: 1,001 ★★★★
    phiguy721 said:

    te_dua_shum said:

    phiguy721 said:

    Arsoz said:

    Rng

    I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.
    do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

    have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
    [number of champions in the crystal]^2
    if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me :)
    1/128 isn't 1/2, and the latter is what is being advertised. As I said elsewhere, if you flip a coin seven times, and get heads every time, you're either dealing with a very improbable outcome; or, your coin isn't normal.
    they tell you the chances to get a rarity, not the chances to get the same rarity, this is only a calc that i did to show you that you were wrong: one probability out of 128 isn't really a low probability, not with the number of crystals opened daily by all players, like isn't that difficult to obtain 7 heads in a row flipping a coin, if i can repeat that flips thousand times.
  • FingfangfoomfanesFingfangfoomfanes Posts: 1,102 ★★★
    My last six star was the IF that I got for buying Cavs for the first time after getting cavalier. After that, a slew of three : four stars. Ugh
  • xNigxNig Posts: 7,245 ★★★★★
    Weird. I’ve only been getting 2*s from my PHCs too. 😂
  • BrudixTreeBrudixTree Posts: 801 ★★
    te_dua_shum said:

    phiguy721 said:

    Arsoz said:

    Rng

    I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.
    do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

    have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
    [number of champions in the crystal]^2
    if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me :)
    Which doesnt mean you have a Chance of 1/128 at the 7th to get a 3 star.......

    My brother got sabrettoth yesterday, dunno he also had Havoc and Wasp in there
  • digital-SOBdigital-SOB Posts: 261 ★★
    Yep. See it in alliance tab feed. 99% 3* from cav crystals. Idk why 3* are in the cav’s since they are in the grandmaster. Cav have 6* which is a higher ceiling so it should have a higher floor, being 4*.
  • Spurgeon14Spurgeon14 Posts: 1,665 ★★★★
    digital-SOB said:

    Yep. See it in alliance tab feed. 99% 3* from cav crystals. Idk why 3* are in the cav’s since they are in the grandmaster. Cav have 6* which is a higher ceiling so it should have a higher floor, being 4*.

    Whats funny is that even 4* can't be used in Cavalier content. However, I think they don't want to sell guaranteed 4* and higher for only 200 units each. However, if they lowered the drop rate for 3* and increased it for 4* while leaving 5* and 6* drop rates the same that would be fine in my opinion.
  • CainCain Posts: 559 ★★
    My last one...I’m not a whale. I’ve prob bought around 20 since they became available

  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    phiguy721 said:

    Jestress said:

    phiguy721 said:

    Jestress said:

    roflcopter

    Thank you for your insightful contribution to the discussion.
    You call it probabilistic impossibility. The chances of pulling a 3* from a cavalier xtal are 50%. Crystal drop rates are independent of each other. You just flipped the wrong side of the 50/50 7 times. Nothing special going on here. You can't expect to pull a 4/5/6* every time you pop a xtal.
    Flipping a coin and getting heads seven times in a row is probabilistically improbable, if not impossible. Though, again, thank you for your insightful contribution to the discussion.
    It happens in 1 out of 128 times someone does it on happen, improbable but not exactly rare
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,369 ★★★★★
    phiguy721 said:

    te_dua_shum said:

    phiguy721 said:

    Arsoz said:

    Rng

    I thought so at first, but after the seventh one in a row over the course of multiple days, RNG doesn't explain what is effectively a probabilistic impossibility.
    do cavalier crystals have around 50% chance to drop a three star, right? if so, it isn't that impossible: the probability to get seven 3* in a row is around 1/128, not low at all if compared to others.

    have you ever got the same 3* two times in a row? that's a much lower probability:
    [number of champions in the crystal]^2
    if the champs are 100, and probably are even more, i think around 130, the probability becomes 1/10.000 (or 1/16.900 if 130 champs considered), and i've seen it occour more than one time to me :)
    1/128 isn't 1/2, and the latter is what is being advertised. As I said elsewhere, if you flip a coin seven times, and get heads every time, you're either dealing with a very improbable outcome; or, your coin isn't normal.
    Dude you should just stop. The 1/2 is the independent probability for each pull. The 1/28 is the total probability for each of 7 consecutive pulls. They do not guarantee you that you will get a 4* or better every 2 pulls.
  • StarhawkStarhawk Posts: 614 ★★★
    I got a 6* a couple of days ago.....does that count as 2 3*s? If so its bugged please stop including 6* heroes.

    Maybe I should remove this comment I don't want to give anyone any ideas ;)
  • Wubbie075Wubbie075 Posts: 734 ★★★
    To everyone posting that they have gotten 4* or better, OBVIOUSLY Kabam saw that they were found out and they tweaked the RNG to allow ppl to get the better champs again.

    Congrats on the OP for blowing this conspiracy wide open and making a real change in the game!!!
  • KattohSKattohS Posts: 717 ★★
    I never knew you could learn soo much maths from a fighting game.

    They should put this in the school curriculum.
  • Diksh619Diksh619 Posts: 227 ★★
    Save those precious units for clearing content and get assured rewards. Why to be on the mercy on RNG?
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