Crystal reels and odds...

o_oo_o Posts: 156 ★★
After reading the (now closed) thread in which people expressed worry about not seeing Claire Voyant on the reel in her new crystals, i thought I’d chime in about reels and odds.

In closing the thread, Kabam Vydious stated "overall this reel of Champions is for entertainment value and doesn't have any effect towards your outcome." There are two pieces here.

#1: no effect towards the outcome
What you see on that reel has zero relation to the drop rates for the crystal. My favorite example is the uncollected arena crystal; if you spin it out, it seems like every other stop on the reel is Punisher. It looks like your odds of getting him are somewhere around 50% (1 in 2). But if you look at the drop rates, the chance of getting him is actually 0.67%, or 1 in 149.

#2 for entertainment value
In the arena crystal example, Kabam is creating a reel that overstates your chances of getting Punisher - presumably because it's exciting to keep seeing the top prize. Makers of slot machines do the same thing. With the old machines that had mechanical reels, the probability of hitting a given symbol actually corresponded to the frequency with which it appeared on the reel. On modern slot machines, the outcome is decided by a random number generator and the virtual reel is strictly for entertainment value. Winning symbols tend to come up disproportionately often, which tends to mean a lot of apparent "near misses." Though i don't know the exact mechanics of these crystals, they seem to work the same way. So back to the arena crystal example, for me the reel seems to always stop on gold, but with a Punisher on each side. It looks like i came close to getting him, but what i see there has zero relation to the the RNG operation. The two are completely independent. But i still spin out those arena crystals because it's kinda fun.

I know with Claire the concern was the opposite: people weren't seeing her in the reel at all. It would probably be more exciting for people if she was more visible in there. But the point is the same: the reel is not at all representative of the contents of the crystal and its drop rates. Just something to keep in mind the next time you spin one out!

Comments

  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★
    This happens every month and it is typically the same people.
  • ChadhoganChadhogan Posts: 423 ★★
    I opened one feature crystal and got the 4* version of her super lucky but I didn't see her on the reel until it rolled over to her ? But definitely there.
  • Ezekiel2517Ezekiel2517 Posts: 21
    They would rather lie than admit the error this crystal had, so close topics where there are several reports of the problem.
    Follow link where I opened 8 (in the video I recorded only the last 4) crystals and in none of them appears even version 3 *

  • CFreeCFree Posts: 491 ★★

    They would rather lie than admit the error this crystal had, so close topics where there are several reports of the problem.
    Follow link where I opened 8 (in the video I recorded only the last 4) crystals and in none of them appears even version 3 *

    You didn’t read the links in the closed topics, I see. Or the OP. What you see in the reel is irrelevant.
  • TurtleJamesTurtleJames Posts: 61
    It’s probably because they have on occasion mistakenly omitted the featured champ in the past, not because we don’t understand the reel has no bearing on the actual odds or outcome. At least that was my concern.
  • MadcatMadcat Posts: 385 ★★★
    CFree said:

    They would rather lie than admit the error this crystal had, so close topics where there are several reports of the problem.
    Follow link where I opened 8 (in the video I recorded only the last 4) crystals and in none of them appears even version 3 *

    You didn’t read the links in the closed topics, I see. Or the OP. What you see in the reel is irrelevant.
    Except there have been instances where the stated champions have not been in the reel nor in the crystal in actuality and they have admitted it. The question is valid to ask given the very poor track record Kabam has on this (and every) topic.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★

    They would rather lie than admit the error this crystal had, so close topics where there are several reports of the problem.
    Follow link where I opened 8 (in the video I recorded only the last 4) crystals and in none of them appears even version 3 *

    we have known for years that the reel means nothing. What purpose would there be in doing what you claim? Also in the thread they closed it was reported that others DID see her.
  • HSenpaiHSenpai Posts: 91
    I found her for you.

    PS - Thank you Kabam :)
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 12,181 ★★★★★
    THE
    REEL
    MEANS
    NOTHING
  • o_oo_o Posts: 156 ★★
    Also, if anyone is curious about how your odds improve when you’re opening multiple crystals, you can use this calculator:
    https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

    So with the new Seance crystal there’s a 4.9% chance of getting any star version of Claire Voyant. If you open 10 of them, your cumulative probability of getting her is 39.4%.

    This is all assuming Kabam’s stated drop rates are legit :smiley:
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 12,181 ★★★★★
    o_o said:

    Also, if anyone is curious about how your odds improve when you’re opening multiple crystals, you can use this calculator:
    https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

    So with the new Seance crystal there’s a 4.9% chance of getting any star version of Claire Voyant. If you open 10 of them, your cumulative probability of getting her is 39.4%.

    This is all assuming Kabam’s stated drop rates are legit :smiley:

    You know drop rates are per crystal and not per amount opened right?
  • o_oo_o Posts: 156 ★★
    Exactly: plugging the drop rate for a single crystal into the binomial calculator gives you the cumulative probability for multiple (in this case, 10) crystals.
  • Mqc19Mqc19 Posts: 259 ★★★
    21000 units spent today and didn’t get her even as a 3*!!!!! No BS. Complete garbage. Pretty much sealed the fact I won’t be spending unit on crystals ever again!

    Shame on you kabam
  • ArylAryl Posts: 1,302 ★★★★
    I don't understand how people still think reel means anything.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Posts: 12,181 ★★★★★
    o_o said:

    Exactly: plugging the drop rate for a single crystal into the binomial calculator gives you the cumulative probability for multiple (in this case, 10) crystals.

    Multiple or not, that's not how it works. Every crystal works individually. The only way to increase your odds overall is to become COWhale and buy your way to getting the new champ.

    Opening 10 crystals does not increase your chances to 39% like you said.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★

    o_o said:

    Also, if anyone is curious about how your odds improve when you’re opening multiple crystals, you can use this calculator:
    https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

    So with the new Seance crystal there’s a 4.9% chance of getting any star version of Claire Voyant. If you open 10 of them, your cumulative probability of getting her is 39.4%.

    This is all assuming Kabam’s stated drop rates are legit :smiley:

    You know drop rates are per crystal and not per amount opened right?
    You do know he said cumulative probability right? And he is correct. Each individual time you open a crystal you have the same chance of getting the champ, but in the pool of openings you have a probability as well that increases with each opening.
  • LormifLormif Posts: 7,346 ★★★★★

    o_o said:

    Exactly: plugging the drop rate for a single crystal into the binomial calculator gives you the cumulative probability for multiple (in this case, 10) crystals.

    Multiple or not, that's not how it works. Every crystal works individually. The only way to increase your odds overall is to become COWhale and buy your way to getting the new champ.

    Opening 10 crystals does not increase your chances to 39% like you said.
    It is how it works.

    Each time I flip a coin I have a 1/2 chance of any given side, but over the accumulative pool of flips if I have 75 heads and 25 tails the chance of the next flip being a tails increases, as a pool, not as an individual flip.
Sign In or Register to comment.