Blade crystal drop rate not 20%

big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
in General Discussion
Time for kabam to be honest and admit that the drop rate for blade crystal is not 20%. I'm sure some may argue and say that he dropped alot but that's anecdotal. I have statistical proof that its not. When the crystal initially came out my alliance opened 22 crystals and no blade. I personally opened 2, then started tracking what was opened since there were so many misses. Now someone might say that is too small a pool of data to come to that conclusion. However, with just that small sample size, the probability of not pulling a blade out of 22 crystals is statistically impossible, if the drop rate was indeed 20%. Now, maybe they eventually fixed it, which may be reason to explain if it indeed dropped alot later. It happened with the sentry feature crystal. But at least back then they admitted he wasn't in there and compensated thusly. Personally, I think the drop rate was more around 5%, which used to be the drop rate for the initial blade crystal or there's some secondary factor to determine who that "20%" is, though that would be fraud since the message specifically said "you" have a 20% chance, not just a general statement that would cover everyone. Kabam, please be honest and admit that the drop rate was not 20% and compensate individuals properly. I will also be submitting a complaint to apple/ google regarding this as a violation of your "probability standards" but I'd like to give you time to correct the matter before submitting. Thanks in advance.
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Comments

  • Zuko_ILCZuko_ILC Member Posts: 1,512 ★★★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    Time for kabam to be honest and admit that the drop rate for blade crystal is not 20%. I'm sure some may argue and say that he dropped alot but that's anecdotal. I have statistical proof that its not. When the crystal initially came out my alliance opened 22 crystals and no blade. I personally opened 2, then started tracking what was opened since there were so many misses. Now someone might say that is too small a pool of data to come to that conclusion. However, with just that small sample size, the probability of not pulling a blade out of 22 crystals is statistically impossible, if the drop rate was indeed 20%. Now, maybe they eventually fixed it, which may be reason to explain if it indeed dropped alot later. It happened with the sentry feature crystal. But at least back then they admitted he wasn't in there and compensated thusly. Personally, I think the drop rate was more around 5%, which used to be the drop rate for the initial blade crystal or there's some secondary factor to determine who that "20%" is, though that would be fraud since the message specifically said "you" have a 20% chance, not just a general statement that would cover everyone. Kabam, please be honest and admit that the drop rate was not 20% and compensate individuals properly. I will also be submitting a complaint to apple/ google regarding this as a violation of your "probability standards" but I'd like to give you time to correct the matter before submitting. Thanks in advance.

    Lots in my ally got him and it seemed to be at a 1 out of 4 rate. You just had bad luck even YouTube vids have basically confirmed it.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.
  • Ch1efsterCh1efster Member Posts: 477 ★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    Again, I said that there would be people that argued against it based on anecdotal information. Its almost impossible to open 22 crystals and not get one at 20%. That's not just "bad luck". Its statistically impossible. It's similar odds to flipping a coin10 times and getting only heads.

    The odds of flipping a coin 10 times and only getting heads is still statistically possible though. Although the odds are low, it can happen. Almost impossible, is still possible. I opened 3 of his featured crystals last time and did not get him. A few of my alliance members opened 2 and got him with both. I did get him on my next basic crystal though...go figure.
  • axelelf_1axelelf_1 Member Posts: 775 ★★★
    And still flipping a coin is 50% while blade is 20%. And it is 20%.
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    That is not statistically impossible, just statistically not understandable by you. You have a 20 percent chance on each pull, which means an 80 percent chance on each pull to get something else. One pull does not impact the next. Same chance each time. That's how probability works.

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  • iRetr0iRetr0 Member Posts: 1,252 ★★★★
    I opened 3, got him in the first one, friend opened 1, didn't get him, opened a 2nd, and got him, just bad RNG.
  • Colinwhitworth69Colinwhitworth69 Member Posts: 7,470 ★★★★★
    Probability does not equal luck.
  • ContestOfNoobsContestOfNoobs Member Posts: 1,637 ★★★★★
    some youtuber went
    0-25 (last time blade was featureed and this time)

    and i got blade 2/2

    rng,...is rng
  • SiliyoSiliyo Member Posts: 1,467 ★★★★★
    This man has not met Anonymous2k...
  • HendrossHendross Member Posts: 957 ★★★
    edited March 2019
    Odds of going 0-22 = .8^22 ~ 0.73% improbable, not impossible.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    I'm afraid none of you understand what the phrase "statistically impossible" means. It basically means its possible but the odds are so low that its almost impossible, which in this case it is. And while every pull has its own probability, 20%, ignoring the odds in the aggregate shows a lack of understanding of how probabilities work. I'd suggest taking the time to actually calculate the odds prior to making a comment. Honestly, I posted this to get a response from kabam since they're always directing us here.
  • axelelf_1axelelf_1 Member Posts: 775 ★★★
    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    And I'll add- I'm not claiming he wasn't in the crystal, I'm just saying he was in there at a much lower rate then 20% or there was a secondary factor to who that 20% was. I mean, if the rate was 10%, would we be able to tell a difference, at least anecdotally? No. And the results we got wouldn't be as improbable. Versus making a statement without data, I had a fairly large subset of data to make a confident statement.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    edited March 2019
    axelelf_1 said:

    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.

    Feel free to actually calculate those odds since its "remedial math". I'm waiting
  • Whododo872Whododo872 Member Posts: 1,042 ★★★
    edited March 2019
    Kabam Miike said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    Flamed 😂
    You tell ‘im, Miike!
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    Kabam Miike said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
  • axelelf_1axelelf_1 Member Posts: 775 ★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    axelelf_1 said:

    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.

    Feel free to actually calculate those odds since its "remedial math". I'm waiting
    Sure. It’s .073%. That’s better odds than pulling a 5* feature from a fgmc and yet it happens.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    big_mags2 said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    I mean you guys can't even get SA rewards out on a consistent basis and they've been a part of the game for 4+ years
  • UnknownUnknown
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  • World EaterWorld Eater Member Posts: 3,733 ★★★★★
    Siliyo said:

    This man has not met Anonymous2k...

    He deserves an Iceman (per his own words)
  • OrdalcaOrdalca Member Posts: 543 ★★★
    big_mags2 said:

    axelelf_1 said:

    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.

    Feel free to actually calculate those odds since its "remedial math". I'm waiting
    Or you could read the comment chain and see that it was already done.
    Hendross said:

    Odds of going 0-22 = .8^22 ~ 0.73% improbable, not impossible.

    Better chance of happening than pulling the featured 5* from a fgmc.
  • big_mags2big_mags2 Member Posts: 16
    axelelf_1 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    axelelf_1 said:

    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.

    Feel free to actually calculate those odds since its "remedial math". I'm waiting
    Sure. It’s .073%. That’s better odds than pulling a 5* feature from a fgmc and yet it happens.
    Odds for pulling a 5* feature from fgmc is .94%. I think your ignoring the zero. Anyways, you're stating a lie that is easily looked up.
  • WHOz_R4GEWHOz_R4GE Member Posts: 239 ★★
    Someone didn’t pass college statistics. It is statistically possible to not pull blade from 22 crystals.
  • OrdalcaOrdalca Member Posts: 543 ★★★
    edited March 2019
    big_mags2 said:

    axelelf_1 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    axelelf_1 said:

    Lol. I don’t think you know what statistically impossible means then or how percentages work. I’d suggest going over some remedial math before commenting again.

    Feel free to actually calculate those odds since its "remedial math". I'm waiting
    Sure. It’s .073%. That’s better odds than pulling a 5* feature from a fgmc and yet it happens.
    Odds for pulling a 5* feature from fgmc is .94%. I think your ignoring the zero. Anyways, you're stating a lie that is easily looked up.
    They messed up their math or had a typo switching the 0 and the point. 0.8^22 = 0.007378, or 0.73%. If you include Miike's point about blade in basic for 20.8%, it's around 0.59% chance, and 0.94% is for rerun fgmc. The new ones are at half that rate, around 0.4%, iirc.
  • Whododo872Whododo872 Member Posts: 1,042 ★★★
    Kabam Miike said:

    big_mags2 said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    No joke here. This is 100% accurate information, and it is something that I checked with the team on. There was no bug or error, and there was a 20.x% Chance of getting Blade from that Crystal. This is how Odds work. You could open 1 million of them and potentially never get Blade (very very very unlikely), or you can open 1 and get him (it happened to a lot of people).
    Yes! Odds are odds, people can lose, it happens. Just because the odds beat you doesn’t mean it’s rigged against the players. You got unlucky.
  • PleasureDomePleasureDome Member Posts: 93 ★
    big_mags2 said:

    big_mags2 said:

    Kabam Miike said:

    You're right @big_mags2, it wasn't 20%.

    It was 20.8ish percent. This is because there was a 20% chance to get Blade as the Featured Champion, but he's also in the Basic Pool.

    I'm glad you've got jokes Miike but it's a fact kabam has messed up on multiple, multiple occasions so its not out of the realm of possibility for this to happen again. Maybe it was corrected after the fact since all those pulls occurred within the first hour. Rather then patronizing a customer with a serious inquiry, maybe you talk to the "team" and give a straight answer.
    I mean you guys can't even get SA rewards out on a consistent basis and they've been a part of the game for 4+ years
    SA Rewards being late has absolutely nothing to do with the probability you will pull a champ from there...your argument is bad, and you should feel bad too.
This discussion has been closed.