Should you buy the Digital Chronometer
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 19,848 Guardian
For those not familiar, the Digital Chronometer is a special item you will be able to purchase when the Red Room Rifts launch - see: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/193279/you-are-being-contacted-on-behalf-of-the-red-room-academy
I'm going to focus on the Epic difficulty tier for this discussion. Without getting into the details, the bottom line is if you do everything you can do to earn the currency you need to enter these Rifts you'll be able to enter the Epic 18 times. BUT if you buy the Chronometer package you'll only be able to enter 13 times. The Chronometer basically will cost you five entries, which means fiver fewer times you can get Rift rewards.
But the catch is the Chronometer can be used ONCE to force the Rift you're in to give you whichever reward you want. So if you want the awakening gem and the class you want is on your current map you don't have to rely on luck: you just use the Chronometer and bam, you'll be on that path, and that awakening gem is yours.
So should you buy it? Is the value of picking the reward worth losing five entries?
First of all, if you really, really want a 5* awakening gem, my recommendation is (assuming you are capable of earning everything you need and can do the Rifts at Epic difficulty in the first place) buy the Chronometer, and then every time you enter look for the class you want: if you see it, burn it. You'll have thirteen tries to get the class you want: there's a 91% chance the class you want will eventually pop up. If you want at least two different classes, the odds are even better: 99.5% chance that one of those two classes will come up.
But what if you don't want the awakening gem? Maybe you have a bunch of them, maybe you don't need anything awakened, maybe you want something else even more, like 6* shards. Is it worth it to trade five entries for picking the reward then?
Probably. First of all, what's the statistical average expected outcome if you enter the Epic Rift five times? Basically, the math says:
5.5 5* sig tones
7200 5* shards
340 6* shards
2475 T5B fragments
0.45 T2A
That's the statistical average total haul for five entries. Of course, different people will get different results randomly. But that's the average value of five entries. Note: to get the 7200 5* shards I decided to value the 5* featured crystal as approximately 10,000 shards. I know they cost 15k, but Sigil players pay less and the *value* to a player might be nothing more than one more 5* pull. So I thought that was a safe estimate for the value of the crystal.
If you want 1000 6* shards instead of the 5* awakening gem, I'd say you should use the Chronometer. But if your thought was to target either the 10000 5* shards or the 5* featured crystal, I think it is a closer proposition. Personally, I think that package of stuff listed above is worth at least as much as 10k 5* shards or a featured 5* crystal. But other people might disagree.
In my opinion, buy the Epic Chronometer if a) you're targeting the 5* awakening gem, b) you're targeting the 1000 6* shards, c) you really, really, really hate having bad luck. But if you were not specifically targeting those resources, and you think your luck is not bad, and you're looking for the best possible value, then I'd consider carefully if the Chronometer is really giving you the best possible value. For example I don't think I would buy the Chronometer and target the T5B shards.
Of course, if you really really want something, then buy the Chronometer and target that thing. That's entirely your choice: do what will make you happy. But if you don't have a super strong preference (among the top rewards) and want to know which option gives more value, then the question is: is there something you can target with the Chronometer that is worth more than that basket of stuff above. If you believe you can, get the Chronometer. If you think none of the rewards you might pick is as good as that basket of stuff, and you don't mind leaving it to chance, skip the Chronometer.
As an aside, I'm 99.9% sure this is NOT how it works (NOT NOT NOT), but what would have made the Chronometer very interesting is if it could be used *after* you went through the path selector in the Rift. In other words, if the Chronometer could have erased one bad random roll. That would have been very interesting.
I'm going to focus on the Epic difficulty tier for this discussion. Without getting into the details, the bottom line is if you do everything you can do to earn the currency you need to enter these Rifts you'll be able to enter the Epic 18 times. BUT if you buy the Chronometer package you'll only be able to enter 13 times. The Chronometer basically will cost you five entries, which means fiver fewer times you can get Rift rewards.
But the catch is the Chronometer can be used ONCE to force the Rift you're in to give you whichever reward you want. So if you want the awakening gem and the class you want is on your current map you don't have to rely on luck: you just use the Chronometer and bam, you'll be on that path, and that awakening gem is yours.
So should you buy it? Is the value of picking the reward worth losing five entries?
First of all, if you really, really want a 5* awakening gem, my recommendation is (assuming you are capable of earning everything you need and can do the Rifts at Epic difficulty in the first place) buy the Chronometer, and then every time you enter look for the class you want: if you see it, burn it. You'll have thirteen tries to get the class you want: there's a 91% chance the class you want will eventually pop up. If you want at least two different classes, the odds are even better: 99.5% chance that one of those two classes will come up.
But what if you don't want the awakening gem? Maybe you have a bunch of them, maybe you don't need anything awakened, maybe you want something else even more, like 6* shards. Is it worth it to trade five entries for picking the reward then?
Probably. First of all, what's the statistical average expected outcome if you enter the Epic Rift five times? Basically, the math says:
5.5 5* sig tones
7200 5* shards
340 6* shards
2475 T5B fragments
0.45 T2A
That's the statistical average total haul for five entries. Of course, different people will get different results randomly. But that's the average value of five entries. Note: to get the 7200 5* shards I decided to value the 5* featured crystal as approximately 10,000 shards. I know they cost 15k, but Sigil players pay less and the *value* to a player might be nothing more than one more 5* pull. So I thought that was a safe estimate for the value of the crystal.
If you want 1000 6* shards instead of the 5* awakening gem, I'd say you should use the Chronometer. But if your thought was to target either the 10000 5* shards or the 5* featured crystal, I think it is a closer proposition. Personally, I think that package of stuff listed above is worth at least as much as 10k 5* shards or a featured 5* crystal. But other people might disagree.
In my opinion, buy the Epic Chronometer if a) you're targeting the 5* awakening gem, b) you're targeting the 1000 6* shards, c) you really, really, really hate having bad luck. But if you were not specifically targeting those resources, and you think your luck is not bad, and you're looking for the best possible value, then I'd consider carefully if the Chronometer is really giving you the best possible value. For example I don't think I would buy the Chronometer and target the T5B shards.
Of course, if you really really want something, then buy the Chronometer and target that thing. That's entirely your choice: do what will make you happy. But if you don't have a super strong preference (among the top rewards) and want to know which option gives more value, then the question is: is there something you can target with the Chronometer that is worth more than that basket of stuff above. If you believe you can, get the Chronometer. If you think none of the rewards you might pick is as good as that basket of stuff, and you don't mind leaving it to chance, skip the Chronometer.
As an aside, I'm 99.9% sure this is NOT how it works (NOT NOT NOT), but what would have made the Chronometer very interesting is if it could be used *after* you went through the path selector in the Rift. In other words, if the Chronometer could have erased one bad random roll. That would have been very interesting.
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Comments
My luck with these things suck, I still remember the gifting event were I put alot of time and money trying to get an awakening gem and it seemed like everyone and their mother was getting a multitude of them.
I'm beyond confused now
What happen if I don't buy chronometer and complete the path with 6* shard. Did I get it what it that percentage with reward.
Sorry for bad English I am still learning it so manage.
And Help me About understand this concept specially chronometer and percentage of reward what it meant.
@Mike439
@TP33
@hawk34
@Ebony_Naw
But there's only *one* way to *not* get the one you want: you have to strike out all 13 times. Because there's only one way to completely miss, that's much easier to calculate. The odds of missing the first time are 5/6. And then you have to do that again and again, twelve more times, thirteen times in a row. The odds of that happening are 5/6 x 5/6 x 5/6 x ... x 5/6 thirteen times. (5/6)^13 is about 0.09, or about 9%. If the odds of completely failing to get that one specific type is 9%, then the odds of getting it at least once must be the inverse of that, or 91%.
The Chronometer, based on the description, unlocks a special portal where *you* pick the path. The Chronometer doesn't change the rewards. It let's you pick the path you want, and thus the reward you get. Instead of jumping onto a random path, you pick your path.
Note: this is not 42%/6 = 7%. The odds of pulling the awakening gem path is 3%. But the odds of that AG being the class you want is 3%/6 = 0.5%. The odds of pulling at least one of those is thus 1 - (1-0.005)^18 ~ 0.086.
Also, you need to be absolutely certain you will get that last run in.
But unanswered yet (maybe people know for sure now that the quests are live), is whether you need to have ALREADY BOUGHT the Chronometer BEFORE actually entering the quest and seeing whether the particular Class Awakening is there ??
So that if by quest 13, you still have never seen the Class AG you want, you can then have saved the extra Intel in order to run the quest another 5 times (instead of having to buy the Chronometer in advance and then end up not really needing to use it).
So if you want to delay buying the Chronometer, and assuming you're going to max out on entries, you can run 12. Then if you haven't gotten what you want yet, you have to buy the combo package, get entry 13 and the Chronometer, and then use it in that map no matter what.
it is possible that you could buy the Chronometer after you enter a Rift, say Rift #6, but you can't wait to the literal end because you have to buy it with an entry.
Unless someone is doing a lowest level Tier-1 Beginner Rift today, we’ll have to wait until tomorrow before having enough Intel to run an Epic Rift and see how the option to use a Chronometer would even work.
But most should save up Intel for many days before doing any Rift, unless they know they are not gonna want to ever use a Chronometer.
So if I buy a tier 4 rift and enter it, and see that there’s a skill awakening gem that I rly want for some reason, but I haven’t bought the chronometer yet, will I be able to go to the intel store, purchase the chronometer bundle for 3000 intel, go back into the rift and use it? And when I say go to the intel store from the rift, I do not mean quitting the quest. Just using the drop down menu to go to the store and buy