This makes no sense. What are the odds???

BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
edited April 2020 in General Discussion
I needed 3 Science t4cc, so I decided to open 30 t4cc crystals to make sure, since there is a new cap for them and I didn't want to overflow with the other types.

And then this happened.



It's supposed to be random. I seriously don't buy Kabam's randomness anymore. In my last 6 5* crystals I've gotten Mr. Fantastic four times. Random my behind. Kabam seriously has something against me.

P.S. I also want to share this video as proof. If you ever feel bad about your pulls check it again:
https://youtu.be/24TaeHYZmYo

Comments

  • Pancake_FacePancake_Face Member Posts: 1,390 ★★★★
    Berenhp said:

    I needed 3 Science t4cc, so I decided to open 30 t4cc crystals to make sure, since there is a new cap for them and I didn't want to overflow with the other types.

    And then this happened.



    It's supposed to be random. I seriously don't buy Kabam's randomness anymore. In my last 5 5* crystals I've gotten Mr. Fantastic. Random my behind. Kabam seriously has something against me.

    Ya whenever i need a certain class i never get it its all just random
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    Pancake_Face said:

    Berenhp said:

    I needed 3 Science t4cc, so I decided to open 30 t4cc crystals to make sure, since there is a new cap for them and I didn't want to overflow with the other types.

    And then this happened.



    It's supposed to be random. I seriously don't buy Kabam's randomness anymore. In my last 5 5* crystals I've gotten Mr. Fantastic. Random my behind. Kabam seriously has something against me.

    Ya whenever i need a certain class i never get it its all just random
    Pretty crazy though, with odds as low as less than 1%, that these kind of things happen so often.
  • Lucifer1810Lucifer1810 Member Posts: 366 ★★★
    The odds are roughly 0.42 percent, I calculated.
  • MauledMauled Member, Guardian Posts: 3,957 Guardian
    It’s a 1/6 each time, this conspiracy that Kabam can sense what you want and actively screw your pulls is farcical.

    Just remember, every week somebody wins the lottery, in the UK that’s 1/17m or so. When you go on a roulette wheel and it’s roughly 50/50 you can still go on a 10 loss streak or a 10 win streak.

    Odds are not cumulative. If you open 6 its not guaranteed that you’ll get the science by the 6th crystal.
  • MauledMauled Member, Guardian Posts: 3,957 Guardian
    I opened 40 or so last night and I got pretty even stats, a few extra mutant but that’s it
  • HavanaknightHavanaknight Member Posts: 482 ★★★
    What I find fascinating is that this opening actually features 2 events each with less than a 1% chance of occurring. None of one type in 30 attempts = 0.4%, pulling 11 or more of one type = 0.6%
  • UnknownUnknown
    edited April 2020
    This content has been removed.
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    Octoberstack said:

    Berenhp said:

    Pancake_Face said:

    Berenhp said:

    I needed 3 Science t4cc, so I decided to open 30 t4cc crystals to make sure, since there is a new cap for them and I didn't want to overflow with the other types.

    And then this happened.



    It's supposed to be random. I seriously don't buy Kabam's randomness anymore. In my last 5 5* crystals I've gotten Mr. Fantastic. Random my behind. Kabam seriously has something against me.

    Ya whenever i need a certain class i never get it its all just random
    Pretty crazy though, with odds as low as less than 1%, that these kind of things happen so often.
    Eh, you’re failing to consider the fact that for every opening like this, there are thousands of others that are completely unremarkable.

    People usually only post on the forums to showcase openings that tend towards the statistically improbable - outliers, if you will. Which is probably why you’re erroneously under the impression that ‘these kind of things happen so often’.
    Oh, I don't mean "this happen so often to everybody". I mean this happen so often to me. Read about getting Mr. Fantastic 4 times almost in a row, check the video opening of crystals, etc
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    UmbertoDelRio said:

    Random =/= balanced

    That's apparently what your disconnect is based on. It's somewhat unlikely, but it's absolutely in the realm of possibility and considering the amount of crystals opened everyday it's not even that unlikely of an occurrence.

    You only opened 30 crystals after all. That's like throwing 30 dice and not rolling a single 1.

    Somewhat improbable, but not nearly as unlikely as it appears and most importantly not impossible. Far from it.

    I never said impossible. Just crazy damned improbable.
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    Mauled said:

    It’s a 1/6 each time, this conspiracy that Kabam can sense what you want and actively screw your pulls is farcical.

    Just remember, every week somebody wins the lottery, in the UK that’s 1/17m or so. When you go on a roulette wheel and it’s roughly 50/50 you can still go on a 10 loss streak or a 10 win streak.

    Odds are not cumulative. If you open 6 its not guaranteed that you’ll get the science by the 6th crystal.

    I understand probabilities, thanks. I'm just pointing to the fact of how unlikely these events are.
  • lowlevelplayerlowlevelplayer Member Posts: 4,292 ★★★★★
    it's unlikely, but possible.
    DEAL WITH IT
  • TwmRTwmR Member Posts: 662 ★★★
    Havanaknight said:

    What I find fascinating is that this opening actually features 2 events each with less than a 1% chance of occurring. None of one type in 30 attempts = 0.4%, pulling 11 or more of one type = 0.6%

    But one of those events happening increases the likelihood the other will too
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    lowlevelplayer said:

    it's unlikely, but possible.
    DEAL WITH IT

    No
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • DemonzfyreDemonzfyre Member Posts: 22,052 ★★★★★
    Berenhp said:

    Mauled said:

    It’s a 1/6 each time, this conspiracy that Kabam can sense what you want and actively screw your pulls is farcical.

    Just remember, every week somebody wins the lottery, in the UK that’s 1/17m or so. When you go on a roulette wheel and it’s roughly 50/50 you can still go on a 10 loss streak or a 10 win streak.

    Odds are not cumulative. If you open 6 its not guaranteed that you’ll get the science by the 6th crystal.

    I understand probabilities, thanks. I'm just pointing to the fact of how unlikely these events are.
    "Unlikely" but we see posts like this almost everyday 🤷
  • SpideyFunkoSpideyFunko Member Posts: 21,948 ★★★★★
    It’s working as intended.
  • SpideyFunkoSpideyFunko Member Posts: 21,948 ★★★★★
    Also, you have like 29 other crystals left to open. And Mr Fantastic needs the dupe, so I wouldn’t be complaining.
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    SpideyFunko said:

    It’s working as intended.

    That we agree on
  • BerenhpBerenhp Member Posts: 51 ★
    SpideyFunko said:

    Also, you have like 29 other crystals left to open. And Mr Fantastic needs the dupe, so I wouldn’t be complaining.

    You wouldn't. I obviously would.
  • NeotwismNeotwism Member Posts: 1,803 ★★★★★
    GroundedWisdom said:

    Neotwism said:

    Mauled said:

    It’s a 1/6 each time, this conspiracy that Kabam can sense what you want and actively screw your pulls is farcical.

    Just remember, every week somebody wins the lottery, in the UK that’s 1/17m or so. When you go on a roulette wheel and it’s roughly 50/50 you can still go on a 10 loss streak or a 10 win streak.

    Odds are not cumulative. If you open 6 its not guaranteed that you’ll get the science by the 6th crystal.

    It's not farcical if you think about it. All it would take it to code in how many of each class a person has in their inventory. If I have every class full but 1 it's pretty obvious that's the class a person wants. I'm not saying it's rigged. I'm just saying it wouldn't be hard for kabam to have it weighted so ppl keep spending more.
    Except the server doesn't access what you have when it generates an outcome. The Crystal is a sort of key that unlocks the pool on the server, and the server generates an outcome based on what's listed instantaneously. There's no analysis of what you have or need, what content you don't have done, what your plans are, or any factor thereof.
    The daily objectives can tell where you are in content before it assigns the daily and weekly objectives. Why would it be impossible for other parts of the game to do the same?
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Member Posts: 36,573 ★★★★★
    Neotwism said:

    GroundedWisdom said:

    Neotwism said:

    Mauled said:

    It’s a 1/6 each time, this conspiracy that Kabam can sense what you want and actively screw your pulls is farcical.

    Just remember, every week somebody wins the lottery, in the UK that’s 1/17m or so. When you go on a roulette wheel and it’s roughly 50/50 you can still go on a 10 loss streak or a 10 win streak.

    Odds are not cumulative. If you open 6 its not guaranteed that you’ll get the science by the 6th crystal.

    It's not farcical if you think about it. All it would take it to code in how many of each class a person has in their inventory. If I have every class full but 1 it's pretty obvious that's the class a person wants. I'm not saying it's rigged. I'm just saying it wouldn't be hard for kabam to have it weighted so ppl keep spending more.
    Except the server doesn't access what you have when it generates an outcome. The Crystal is a sort of key that unlocks the pool on the server, and the server generates an outcome based on what's listed instantaneously. There's no analysis of what you have or need, what content you don't have done, what your plans are, or any factor thereof.
    The daily objectives can tell where you are in content before it assigns the daily and weekly objectives. Why would it be impossible for other parts of the game to do the same?
    Totally different things.
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • Kabam ZibiitKabam Zibiit Administrator Posts: 7,033
    As we've mentioned many times before, the chance of receiving any particular item, such as a Catalyst, is the same as pulling any other unless otherwise specified. This is true of all classes of Catalyst. The randomness of this means that sometimes someone may not getting exactly what they were hoping for at that moment, and sometimes they may get exactly what they want, but that doesn't make it less random. Since we've addressed this before, this thread will now be closed.
This discussion has been closed.