Analyzing the Battlegrounds Medal Change (TL;DR: its good: very good)
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 19,677 Guardian
In the latest announcement for Battlegrounds changes for Season 8, Kabam announced a change to how many medals players earn per win and how many medals it takes to promote for the Victory track changes. The obvious question is: how much better is it now?
Answer: depending on what your average win rate was/is in BG, a lot.
First, here's a comparison between how many matches it took, on average, to promote a VT tier depending on your average win rate (this would be the average percentage of matches you win) looking at the current Season 7 numbers and the announced Season 8 numbers:
(Note: the number in the parentheses is the number of medals required, and the number after the x is the total number of tracks in that tier with that medal requirement. "Silver (3) x3 means Silver tracks require three medals, and there's three of them. Gold(5) x3 means five medals are required Gold tracks and there are three of them.)
For Diamond tracks and higher the numbers are identical, because the medals won/lost and medals necessary are unchanged. But the number of matches it will take for everyone drops in S8, and it drops most dramatically for players at or below 50% win rate until Platinum 1. Note: these numbers are calculated computationally, using statistical models. But as I ran them for about eight million iterations, they should be accurate to more decimal places than shown.
As indicated, even though Gold tracks increase from requiring three medals to five, the medal increase still allows for much faster progress through the track. Had Gold and Platinum been kept at three, it would have been far too easy to promote through those tracks. Instead, Bronze and Silver are far easier to promote through, and Gold and Platinum are still much easier, but slightly harder than Bronze and Silver.
For those who would rather see this graphically, here's a comparison between the average trajectory for a player that wins 50% of their matches, comparing Season 7 and Season 8:
And a player with only a 33% win percentage rate:
The difference is huge up to Platinum 1. Even stronger players will be accelerated through VT at a slightly faster rate on average, but as they were blowing through VT very fast already, there's very little room for improvement. But for players that were getting "stuck" in VT, the Season 8 medal mechanics will offer substantial benefits.
It should also be noted that unlike in S7 where it was theoretically possible for a player who actually won 50% of their matches to still get stuck if they were unlucky enough to alternate wins and losses (which would keep zeroing out their trophies) in S8 alternating between wins and losses will still net one medal every two matches. Such a win rate gets you through Bronze tiers in four matches (per tier), Silver in six, and Gold in ten. And that's the worst case scenario for a 50% player. A 33% player can theoretically get stuck if they consistently win one and lose two in perfect sequence, but anyone with a higher win percentage is guaranteed to progress upward at some slow rate.
So: its better. A little better for the strong players with high win rates who didn't need help anyway, but it is also no worse for them, even with the higher requirements for Gold and Platinum. Much better for average players with about 50/50 win rates, who can no longer get stuck with alternating win/loss patterns and who will also, on average, promote much faster (even through Gold and Platinum) until they reach Diamond. And for weaker players who were getting crushed, the new medal situation will in most cases be a god-send. It will allow them to progress to a much higher degree. Maybe not all the way to Diamond, but more than before depending on how many matches they play. For example, a weaker player that did fifty matches in S7 might still find themselves only in Bronze 1, statistically speaking that same player could find themselves in Gold 3 in Season 8.
For those wondering, it would be difficult to compare this change to my suggested medal change, but it is in the general ball park of what I suggested in overall impact. It is slightly better in some respects, not as good in others, but probably materially similar.
Also for reference: my original analysis of how hard it was/is to promote through the VT with the current medal mechanics.
Answer: depending on what your average win rate was/is in BG, a lot.
First, here's a comparison between how many matches it took, on average, to promote a VT tier depending on your average win rate (this would be the average percentage of matches you win) looking at the current Season 7 numbers and the announced Season 8 numbers:
(Note: the number in the parentheses is the number of medals required, and the number after the x is the total number of tracks in that tier with that medal requirement. "Silver (3) x3 means Silver tracks require three medals, and there's three of them. Gold(5) x3 means five medals are required Gold tracks and there are three of them.)
For Diamond tracks and higher the numbers are identical, because the medals won/lost and medals necessary are unchanged. But the number of matches it will take for everyone drops in S8, and it drops most dramatically for players at or below 50% win rate until Platinum 1. Note: these numbers are calculated computationally, using statistical models. But as I ran them for about eight million iterations, they should be accurate to more decimal places than shown.
As indicated, even though Gold tracks increase from requiring three medals to five, the medal increase still allows for much faster progress through the track. Had Gold and Platinum been kept at three, it would have been far too easy to promote through those tracks. Instead, Bronze and Silver are far easier to promote through, and Gold and Platinum are still much easier, but slightly harder than Bronze and Silver.
For those who would rather see this graphically, here's a comparison between the average trajectory for a player that wins 50% of their matches, comparing Season 7 and Season 8:
And a player with only a 33% win percentage rate:
The difference is huge up to Platinum 1. Even stronger players will be accelerated through VT at a slightly faster rate on average, but as they were blowing through VT very fast already, there's very little room for improvement. But for players that were getting "stuck" in VT, the Season 8 medal mechanics will offer substantial benefits.
It should also be noted that unlike in S7 where it was theoretically possible for a player who actually won 50% of their matches to still get stuck if they were unlucky enough to alternate wins and losses (which would keep zeroing out their trophies) in S8 alternating between wins and losses will still net one medal every two matches. Such a win rate gets you through Bronze tiers in four matches (per tier), Silver in six, and Gold in ten. And that's the worst case scenario for a 50% player. A 33% player can theoretically get stuck if they consistently win one and lose two in perfect sequence, but anyone with a higher win percentage is guaranteed to progress upward at some slow rate.
So: its better. A little better for the strong players with high win rates who didn't need help anyway, but it is also no worse for them, even with the higher requirements for Gold and Platinum. Much better for average players with about 50/50 win rates, who can no longer get stuck with alternating win/loss patterns and who will also, on average, promote much faster (even through Gold and Platinum) until they reach Diamond. And for weaker players who were getting crushed, the new medal situation will in most cases be a god-send. It will allow them to progress to a much higher degree. Maybe not all the way to Diamond, but more than before depending on how many matches they play. For example, a weaker player that did fifty matches in S7 might still find themselves only in Bronze 1, statistically speaking that same player could find themselves in Gold 3 in Season 8.
For those wondering, it would be difficult to compare this change to my suggested medal change, but it is in the general ball park of what I suggested in overall impact. It is slightly better in some respects, not as good in others, but probably materially similar.
Also for reference: my original analysis of how hard it was/is to promote through the VT with the current medal mechanics.
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Comments
The rewards updates are nice too.
I’m concerned about the lack of acknowledgement that bugs have plagued this mode for multiple seasons now, not just one season for part of it. It seems like a willfully ignorant choice to ignore feedback on certain items. Some of the feedback dating back the “beta”.
So I’m melancholic on this update today. The increased rewards likely suck me back in, but I I’m dreading a retread of the same bugs and modders that are the real things that ruin this game mode
I was a little confused by Kabam's chart showing the needed Medals.
As well as, would those lines correspond to the TRACK you are on, or what rank you’ve actually achieved (and claimed the rewards from).
So you look at below chart and see Bronze-3 (ok, you actually start out as fully being Bronze-3, which is also called working on the Bronze-2 “Track”). So no Medals needed to reach rank of Bronze-3 (you're already there when you start).
*BUT* why then is there a (2) in the “Medals per Win” column of the first Row ??
So, because of that, thinking that row-1 column-3 number of 2 means while you are actually Bronze-3 (on the Bronze-2 Track), you earn that many Medals per win (according to that Bronze-3 Row). Even though the second column numbers are tied to that actual row's Rank that you are working on, and shows how many are needed to reach that rank.
But if you take that down to the last Platinum Row, that would mean while ACTUALLY being Plat-1 (working on the Diamond-3 TRACK) you would still get 2 medals per win. (*NOPE*)
**TL-DR** So, did they just mistakenly put a number (2) in the first row (Bronze-3) third column (medals per win) ??
And that spot should have also been EMPTY just like the “Medals to Advance” just to it's left ??
I know that some people think about BG VT tracks differently. I've seen people think of the the process as "completing Bronze 3, then completing Bronze 2" and so on. While others think in terms of "promoting to Bronze 2, promoting to Bronze 1" etc. Plus, the UI hasn't always displayed things consistently, and just exactly what tier you're technically "in" has in the past been confusing, which has not helped matters. Regardless, the first column is saying you need to do nothing to arrive in the state where the game says you are in Bronze 3, and you will earn two medals per match win while the game displays Bronze 3 as your current state.
To put it another way, every row should have an entry for medals earned, because you need to know how many medals you will earn while in every one of those tracks. But one of them will not show how many medals it takes to get there, because the first one never takes any medals to get there.
If you needed help just to get to Diamond, you probably don't belong in Vibranium or GC, but at least you won't be stuck at the starting line spinning your wheels.
well done. not a perfect solution but a very good compromise indeed.
Yes, but basically what I mean is that it lists 12 Rows worth of getting 2 Medals per Win.
Should it only be showing 11 Rows of 2x per win ?
At what point does it start giving only 1x per win ?
Is it WHILE you are PROGRESSING along on the Diamond-3 TRACK ?
(so that the last “milestone” rewards you earned was the Plat-1 rewards, and your current progress screen shows you as Diamond-3 with for example 0 out of 3 Medals toward finishing Diamond-3)
And on that track is where you began only getting 1x medal per win ?
If so, that's why I’m confused with it showing 12 Rows worth of 2x (instead of only 11 Rows of 2x) before starting to show the 1x per win from then on.
*and* also, if you say that very first row has to show the # of medals per win (while you are Bronze-3, earning medals towards Bronze-2). Well why then does the very LAST Row have a number then. Once you actually reach Vibranium (getting 5 medals), aren’t you then in G.C.. so why would there be a 1x per win there if you are now in G.C.
See, that's my issue with Column 3 of the chart. (and my issue in general with how Kabam decided use conflicting status's, one place showing what you’ve REACHED, another showing what you are PROGRESSING IN)
The changes will be great for those burned out by previous seasons due to facing huge accounts from day one.
If this helps, let's take interpretation out of it and just look at VT based on what players *see*. When a player looks at their current VT state, what do they see. They initially see themselves in Bronze 3, with no medals. Let's call that B3-0. If they win one, they see themselves in Bronze 3 with one medal - we'll call that B3-1. When they win one more, they *momentarily* reach B3-2, but then they promote to B2-0. A player never sees themselves as B3-2. That state is synonymous with B2-0, and that's what the UI shows them. If we list every possible state that the player could be in, we can construct this ladder of VT progress:
This shows every single state a player can see themselves in visually, from B3-0 to V4, and then GC. It also shows the promotions, when a player momentarily "completes" a track but once that promotion screen expires the UI will show them as the next higher tier with zero medals. We can also list how many medals BG will award if you win while the game shows you in a particular state. Assuming my interpretation of Kabam's announcement is correct, I've filled that in under the "Win" column. I have also broken up the individual states into the broader tiers in the far right column.
If you look at the Visual State column, I believe every possible state the game UI can show a player in is represented, and each one aligns with one of the broader summary states. If you count them up, they match the Kabam announcement. There's nothing missing, and nothing double counted. Counting by "Big Tiers" there should be twelve: Bronze 3 through Platinum 1. In fact, there are 33 "tracks" where you will be earning two medals per match win that correspond to those twelve bigger tiers.
You were expecting a square to be "missing" and it is - in my chart. The very last row when the player promotes from V4 to V5 and then enters GC, there is no medals per match win for that row, because they are now in GC and no longer progressing in the VT. I've highlighted it in red. But that "missing square" is not "Vibranium" it is a piece of Vibranium, the piece where they reach Vibranium-5 and instantly transition to GC.