Banquet Realm Event Stretch Milestones: Are We There Yet?

After reaching Isophene, Kabam unlocked more milestones above the original highest milestone in the realm event. Of particular interest were milestones 38 and 43. Milestone 38 at 4,640,000,000 points contains an R2->R3 rank up crystal, and Milestone 43 at 5,040,000,000 points contains a trophy champ selector with 7* Vision, Kang, and Thanos. How likely are we to reach both milestones?

Well, as I write this we just surpassed milestone 38, so that one is a done deal. Are we on track to reach milestone 43?

At the moment, yep. Orange line is the pace car to reach milestone 43, and the blue line is our current progress since day four. If we look at our scoring rate verses the necessary rate to reach milestone 43, we get:

It is not as much of an absolute certainty as it was for Isophene or milestone 38, but we have consistently been above the necessary rate to reach milestone 43. Yes, it is possible our scoring rates will drop over the last three days of the event, but remember that the necessary rate also drops whenever we score more than the necessary rate. The necessary rate required as I write this is about 4.6 million points per hour. We've never been below that rate, and the current rate is 7.5 million per hour. The overnight rate has been bottoming out around 5 million points per hour, and the average overall rate has been fluctuating between 6 million/hour and 7 million/hour for the past five days or so.

I expect a burst of points to come in before the end. It might not be a huge one, but it doesn't have to be. My current projected final score is about 5.15 billion, plus or minus. We just need to reach 5.04 billion. To see the big picture scoring rate trend here's how many points we've been scoring per day.

Did scoring drop off after the first couple of days? By a ton. Did it continue to drop? Well, it looks more like it leveled off for the most part over the last five or six days. If the daily scoring continues to look more or less like that, we'll make it to milestone 43.

Comments

startropics

very underwhelming and underperforming event

DNA3000

very underwhelming and underperforming event

If all my work underperformed like this, I could have retired at age 27.

smdam38

So why do you do it?

DNA3000

So why do you do it?

This might seem like a sarcastic answer, but it is not intended to be: because I can.

A lot of people contribute to the community. They make charts, they make infographics, they make video tutorials, they make content completion guides. Once upon a time I used to make side quest guides but I mostly stopped because lots of people do that these days, most just as good or better than I ever did. So I don’t, because why do what others are already doing perfectly well?

I can do this, nobody else really wants to do this, it can be useful to many players out there. So I do.

startropics

very underwhelming and underperforming event
If all my work underperformed like this, I could have retired at age 27.

i hear ya lol

one day i hope the all screaming and hollering stops around these parts but just might mean the game isn't live anymore.

DNA3000

Update:

Seems the sales refreshed. Is anyone buying?

Yep. Best estimate is that spike is an additional 53 thousand crystals being bought and opened, and if they came primarily from the 10 for 50 bundle that's a bit over a quarter million dollars spent in the first two hours of the day.

Without knowing how long the buying spike will last, this puts us at least within striking distance of milestone 45 at 5.2 billion points.

captain_rogers

So why do you do it?

Because it is useful for the community, unlike your comments

Ashacekar

Update:

Seems the sales refreshed. Is anyone buying?

Yep. Best estimate is that spike is an additional 53 thousand crystals being bought and opened, and if they came primarily from the 10 for 50 bundle that's a bit over a quarter million dollars spent in the first two hours of the day.

Without knowing how long the buying spike will last, this puts us at least within striking distance of milestone 45 at 5.2 billion points.

That spike is looking good, i can see the milestone bar going up quick. I will pick Kang then, tested Apoc synergy with my 5* and i m curious with what 7* can do.

DNA3000

Update:

Seems the sales refreshed. Is anyone buying?

Yep. Best estimate is that spike is an additional 53 thousand crystals being bought and opened, and if they came primarily from the 10 for 50 bundle that's a bit over a quarter million dollars spent in the first two hours of the day.

Without knowing how long the buying spike will last, this puts us at least within striking distance of milestone 45 at 5.2 billion points.
That spike is looking good, i can see the milestone bar going up quick. I will pick Kang then, tested Apoc synergy with my 5* and i m curious with what 7* can do.

In the last hour, (approximately) another 10k-12k crystals bought and popped. Another $100k USD dropped on the event.

(Crashed, probably)

DNA3000

Spending finally seems to be slowing down and our scoring rate is settling to near what it was yesterday at the same time. The total spending burst seems to have been on the order of 26 million points above and beyond typical scoring, which equates to about 65,000 SBCs bought and opened. About $325k USD spent in six hours on crystal bundles (assuming most of the points above normal came from crystals bought via that bundle, which makes logical sense as it comes coincident with the bundles refreshing in the store offers).

The orange line is the pace to reach 5.04 billion and the selector, and the blue line is our current scoring.

And here we have our hourly points rate over time, compared to the necessary rate to reach 5.04 billion. We've been keeping above that rate throughout, bouncing up and down during the day but never really falling below it, and with the burst of points today the orange line has dipped downward much more steeply, signifying that how much we have left to go in the time we have remaining is also dropping by a significant amount.

From here averaging 3.7 million points per hour to the end of the event would get us there, and we're currently scoring almost three times faster than that. My current projection is we reach 5.18 billion by the end of the event, and we should be at or near the selector milestone sometime around 10am Thursday Pacific time, about 24 hours before the end of the event.

It is possible scoring slows down significantly after today, but it is also possible that as we approach milestone 43 and the selector there will be a big burst of scoring as players try to reach the minimum qualifying score for that milestone. There seemed to be a little bit of that as we approached the rank up gem, and my guess is the rush to qualify will be as high or higher for the selector.

TheObiJuan

Thank you Kabam for the point injections. ❤️

DNA3000

Thank you Kabam for the point injections. ❤️

These were almost certainly not point injections and were player purchases when the offers renewed, because the way the points came in were inconsistent with bulk point additions. To verify this I took more frequent score measurements. The points came in continuously but not perfectly evenly over many hours.

DNA3000

Update:

The odds of reaching milestone 43 and the selector are now essentially 100%. This is where we are now as I write this post:

And it is much more obvious when we look at our current point earning rate verses the rate we would need to sustain for the rest of the event to make it to milestone 43:

Not only did the spending burst give us a very good cushion, point earning rates jumped *upward* this morning instead of declining, relative to the recent trends. If we zoom in on recent history:

The gap between what we need and what we are doing is sufficiently wide, and the actual rate required dropping to such a low level, the whole internet would have to shut down for us to miss at this point. My current projected final score now sits at 5.21 billion, slightly above milestone 45, and reaching milestone 43 (the selector) sometime around 7am on Thursday January 2 Pacific time.

DNA3000

Update:

We’ve crossed 5 billion points. About 40 million to go to the selector. At our normal overnight rate, we should hit that in about seven and a half hours, which would put us crossing 5.04 billion sometime around 2 am Pacific time, a few hours ahead of the previous projection (our scoring rate was slightly above my conservative estimate today).

Fryday

Update:

We’ve crossed 5 billion points. About 40 million to go to the selector. At our normal overnight rate, we should hit that in about seven and a half hours, which would put us crossing 5.04 billion sometime around 2 am Pacific time, a few hours ahead of the previous projection (our scoring rate was slightly above my conservative estimate today).

Many thanks for the updated @DNA3000 ,

I'm so excited for this selector (I know, I know, I'm a simple man). Just want to have 1 Vision I could rank up 🤣

Counting down the hours 🤣🤣🤣

IAmGrO_ot78

Looking forward to this - just to test Kang with Apoc synergy 😅 Apoc, Kang, Cable and Sinister looks like a fun quest team.

ContestOfNoobs

Looking forward to this - just to test Kang with Apoc synergy 😅 Apoc, Kang, Cable and Sinister looks like a fun quest team.

Looking like kang is the move ?

It looks fun, but I never even rank up my 6a* kang lol

Fryday

Looking forward to this - just to test Kang with Apoc synergy 😅 Apoc, Kang, Cable and Sinister looks like a fun quest team.

Look like a sinister trip through time 🤣

Jack2634

So why do you do it?
This might seem like a sarcastic answer, but it is not intended to be: because I can.

A lot of people contribute to the community. They make charts, they make infographics, they make video tutorials, they make content completion guides. Once upon a time I used to make side quest guides but I mostly stopped because lots of people do that these days, most just as good or better than I ever did. So I don’t, because why do what others are already doing perfectly well?

I can do this, nobody else really wants to do this, it can be useful to many players out there. So I do.

Great response. Also, good work as usual, u mad scientist. Always find seeing these kind of post from u interesting @DNA3000

Nameless_IW

We are about to hit the trophy champ selector. Only 16 mill points away.

I'm leaning towards Kang. Thought about Vision cause he's the one with the most utility out of the bunch but i have plenty of power control champs in my roster. Also i thought having Thanos will be a cool idea and all and who knows he might get buffed in the near future (2-3 years), so Kang is the obvious choice for me since he's got a nice synergy with Apoc i believe.

IAmGrO_ot78

Looking forward to this - just to test Kang with Apoc synergy 😅 Apoc, Kang, Cable and Sinister looks like a fun quest team.

Looking like kang is the move ?

It looks fun, but I never even rank up my 6a* kang lol

For me it is, I got Vision from years back - bought him to take down act 6 CB pre-nerf, turned out Vision was not that guy 🥵🤭

I want Thanos to, but I hope I get him through a selector from ranked rewards 😅

OldManHop

Annnnnnnd we made it.

Odds of them adding more milestones just to add insult to injury?

ahmynuts

Annnnnnnd we made it.

Odds of them adding more milestones just to add insult to injury?

If we were doing better I would have expected them to roll out 3 more milestones.

I have no basis for this other than 47 is a really weird number of milestones

Fryday

Me:- I got one

Han:- Don't get to cockie kid

Obi:- This is not the Droid you looking for

Me:- Oh but he is, after 10 years of playing on and off 🤣🤣🤣

Thanks to @DNA3000 with the regular update really help reduce the anxiety 🤣🤣🤣

Thanks to everyone else contributing to the score, especially the Superbro, hope you enjoy those R4s 😁

OldManHop

I have no basis for this other than 47 is a really weird number of milestones

To be fair, so is 33 (the isophyne milestone)

N8buckeye08

If Kabam wanted to encourage a last batch of spending, they’d put a last milestone that is one of the following:
- Awakening gem crystal
- Generic R3 rank up
- Fraction of or full T7 basic (I know this is nuts, but it would open up some wallets)
- Limited Edition selector

Fryday

If Kabam wanted to encourage a last batch of spending, they’d put a last milestone that is one of the following:
- Awakening gem crystal
- Generic R3 rank up
- Fraction of or full T7 basic (I know this is nuts, but it would open up some wallets)
- Limited Edition selector

I think even the biggest spenders would have to say

"Please Kabam give me a break, I need to save some money to milk for my baby"

🤣

DNA3000

Annnnnnnd we made it.

Odds of them adding more milestones just to add insult to injury?

Probably zero. We're sort of on the edge of reaching or not reaching milestone 45, with no realistic shot of reaching milestone 47. And we finally started showing signs of running out of gas in the second half of yesterday. We're still opening crystals at a surprisingly high rate for the last day, but overall day 13 was the lowest scoring day by a significant amount.

At this point, the final question remaining is: 1k Titan shards or 2k. We're almost certainly going to reach milestone 44, but it would take a last day push stronger than yesterday to reach milestone 45.

IAmGrO_ot78

Thanks Kabam & MCOC people 🥳

Took 7R1 Kang out for a spin in ROL, with Apoc synergy - and Wolverine was the only defender to survive long enough to Kang geting 20 buffs 😅

60k sp1…decent 🤭

Only negative > Without Apoc he’s only a 🏆 champ 🥲

Toproller89

I picked Kang for his Sp2 stun, so OP