I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
Still the percentages won't mean much if Kabam simply doesn't like you or have a black mark against your name. Remember the outcome of every single crystal you spin is predetermined by Kabam. If you spend up big in the game you have a greater chance of getting what you want. And that is not the law of averages, that is factual.
To be more accurate, the displayed percentages won't mean anything to players who will not believe anyone except the people who reinforce their conspiracy theories about how Kabam manually manipulates crystal drops. The odds display is only going to be useful for people who can actually be informed about crystal odds.
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
I’m more of a tea man myself.
Can't do tea. Once in a Blue Moon maybe. Probably never should have started drinking coffee. Now I'm dead without it. Lol
Just out of curiosity, can you tell us what the old 5* feature crystal drop rate was for a feature and sub-featured champ? The crystals are gone anyway. Please @Kabam Miike
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
I can't wait for all the "I opened 50 phcs and didn't get a 4* fu kabam" posts.
Yes. It's not how RNG works. It doesn't mean someone is guaranteed 2/100 if there is a 2% chance. These numbers are pretty consistent with what we've already been able to gather over the years.
aren’t you just reiterating what everyone else is saying?
I'm going to enjoy my coffee, rather than play Scrabble with you.
I’m more of a tea man myself.
Can't do tea. Once in a Blue Moon maybe. Probably never should have started drinking coffee. Now I'm dead without it. Lol
I’m english so I have to or my parents disown me, my friends ignore me and I’m shot. do love a good cuppa though.
Shame they waited until after the 5* Blade featured crystal is done to do this.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
@Kabam Miike is the display in the announcement a mock up, or taken from the live data? And if it is taken from the live data, have the crystal drop odds been changed in conjunction with the odds disclosures?
Because the announcement sample says PHCs have 2% chance to drop 4* champions but unless that has been changed significantly since when people were recording and analyzing PHC drop rates that is sufficiently different from player observations that it literally would be statistically significant proof the drop system was malfunctioning for PHC crystals.
This is great. Its doesn't matter what Kabam does...the majority of these comments prove that. They don't publish the rates and everyone whines. They do post the rates and no one believes them.
@DNA3000 although i can see exactly where you are coming from goven the data pool you have seen.
However when i recently opened 200 phc i recieved 5 4* which is just above the 2% and just the other day an ally mate of mine opened 10 and recieved 3.....
Also until we see the drop rates fromshard crystals they may be different.
The image shows full phc at 2% for a 4*
The shard version may infact be only 1%
Alot of peeps have long believe there a difference.... we will just have to wait and see if maybe there is
Shame they waited until after the 5* Blade featured crystal is done to do this.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
@Kabam Miike is the display in the announcement a mock up, or taken from the live data? And if it is taken from the live data, have the crystal drop odds been changed in conjunction with the odds disclosures?
Because the announcement sample says PHCs have 2% chance to drop 4* champions but unless that has been changed significantly since when people were recording and analyzing PHC drop rates that is sufficiently different from player observations that it literally would be statistically significant proof the drop system was malfunctioning for PHC crystals.
I think the sample size of data that you are basing your opinion on is probably too small in this case to determine if they are in control or out of control. I average at least 50-60 PHC shard crystals per month. I open ten at a time and just last week I pulled three 4*s. The odds are maddening, but I do not think they have ever been adjusted.
Shame they waited until after the 5* Blade featured crystal is done to do this.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
@Kabam Miike is the display in the announcement a mock up, or taken from the live data? And if it is taken from the live data, have the crystal drop odds been changed in conjunction with the odds disclosures?
Because the announcement sample says PHCs have 2% chance to drop 4* champions but unless that has been changed significantly since when people were recording and analyzing PHC drop rates that is sufficiently different from player observations that it literally would be statistically significant proof the drop system was malfunctioning for PHC crystals.
I think the sample size of data that you are basing your opinion on is probably too small in this case to determine if they are in control or out of control. I average at least 50-60 PHC shard crystals per month. I open ten at a time and just last week I pulled three 4*s. The odds are maddening, but I do not think they have ever been adjusted.
The second analysis I did on PHC drops on Reddit back when people were still streaming huge PHC openings was based on a sample size of several thousand openings, something like 7000 if I recall correctly. The number I got was about one in 115, plus or minus about 15%. So between one in one hundred and one in 120, with a fairly decent confidence level. A lot of time has passed since then so odds could be different now, but at the time I was pretty confident the statistical analysis was valid.
I wouldn't consider this possibility unless the statistical data was very strong. Even a couple hundred openings would be statistically inconclusive. You need enough data to generate at least 50-100 4* champions to start to home in on the first digit of the percentage odds. At the time I was looking, I'm statistically certain that digit wasn't 2 to a high degree of confidence.
Shame they waited until after the 5* Blade featured crystal is done to do this.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
@Kabam Miike is the display in the announcement a mock up, or taken from the live data? And if it is taken from the live data, have the crystal drop odds been changed in conjunction with the odds disclosures?
Because the announcement sample says PHCs have 2% chance to drop 4* champions but unless that has been changed significantly since when people were recording and analyzing PHC drop rates that is sufficiently different from player observations that it literally would be statistically significant proof the drop system was malfunctioning for PHC crystals.
I think the sample size of data that you are basing your opinion on is probably too small in this case to determine if they are in control or out of control. I average at least 50-60 PHC shard crystals per month. I open ten at a time and just last week I pulled three 4*s. The odds are maddening, but I do not think they have ever been adjusted.
The second analysis I did on PHC drops on Reddit back when people were still streaming huge PHC openings was based on a sample size of several thousand openings, something like 7000 if I recall correctly. The number I got was about one in 115, plus or minus about 15%. So between one in one hundred and one in 120, with a fairly decent confidence level. A lot of time has passed since then so odds could be different now, but at the time I was pretty confident the statistical analysis was valid.
I wouldn't consider this possibility unless the statistical data was very strong. Even a couple hundred openings would be statistically inconclusive. You need enough data to generate at least 50-100 4* champions to start to home in on the first digit of the percentage odds. At the time I was looking, I'm statistically certain that digit wasn't 2 to a high degree of confidence.
But there is your problem. Haven't you already skewed your results by taking only a subset of users in this case? I get that the sample should be reasonably confident for the population as a whole since the odds should be the same regardless, but we all know that some people just have more luck than others and there are outliers.
That is why statistics are accurate only to a point.... and when a larger sample is taken it is possible that he results could be largely skewed. However the larger the sample pool the less likely this is.
It is possible to manipulate surveys and polls by simply ommiting certain reaults. Not saying that this is wat was done by @DNA3000 here but we all know that people on reddit only post he very bad or the very good luck.... mostly the very good and almost never the average. Meaning the dara used to create this was likely not an actual accurate picture to begin with.
But my hypothesis is not that the sample was innacurate but in fact that wat kabam have shown here is for a full phc at 2% and a shard phc is half of that at only 1% given the fact they are a **** load more common.... lers wait and see
That is why statistics are accurate only to a point.... and when a larger sample is taken it is possible that he results could be largely skewed. However the larger the sample pool the less likely this is.
It is possible to manipulate surveys and polls by simply ommiting certain reaults. Not saying that this is wat was done by @DNA3000 here but we all know that people on reddit only post he very bad or the very good luck.... mostly the very good and almost never the average. Meaning the dara used to create this was likely not an actual accurate picture to begin with.
But my hypothesis is not that the sample was innacurate but in fact that wat kabam have shown here is for a full phc at 2% and a shard phc is half of that at only 1% given the fact they are a **** load more common.... lers wait and see
I completely agree and to speculate anything right now does not make a lot of sense. And @DNA3000, I am not questioning your sampling, just proposing why something could be amiss.
Why display this unfair system when it is like a fake system? You say 2 percent chance but it can be 0.000001 hidden or it can be 5 percent. We dont know the truth until you release the algorithms.
How about putting a prize tag on champs. Straight up prize tag.
Featured Crystals will also display the Drop Rates for the specific Featured Champion as well. I don't have a screenshot to share at this time, but it will list the Chances for each Rarity of the Featured Champion as well.
So, for example, let's use the Usurper Crystal. In addition to the rates you see in the screenshot posted above, it will also list the chance of 3-Star Hela, and 4-Star Hela.
We won't be breaking it down by individual Champions, because as we have stated many times, those chances are all equal.
If that was actually true, certain champs wouldn't be so much harder to attain than others
Comments
You cannot put whisky in tea...coffee wins!
To be more accurate, the displayed percentages won't mean anything to players who will not believe anyone except the people who reinforce their conspiracy theories about how Kabam manually manipulates crystal drops. The odds display is only going to be useful for people who can actually be informed about crystal odds.
Cannot... or should not?
The latter...
I’m english so I have to or my parents disown me, my friends ignore me and I’m shot. do love a good cuppa though.
Shard Crystals will also have their Drop Rate information available.
I'm sure that the posted rates and the end of the previous featured crystal was 100% intentional.
Why? We already had a good idea what those rates were in general. Players have gathered that themselves.
I'm sure it would have required a time machine to make the two anything but coincidental.
Nope! Those two things have nothing to do with each other!
I opened 1 and pulled him, so they aren’t that bad lol
Who’s Jim? He sounds interesting
It's called a Hot Toddy. Pretty tasty if you use the right tea...
me too. Hoping for a 2nd chance before it expires. lol
@Kabam Miike is the display in the announcement a mock up, or taken from the live data? And if it is taken from the live data, have the crystal drop odds been changed in conjunction with the odds disclosures?
Because the announcement sample says PHCs have 2% chance to drop 4* champions but unless that has been changed significantly since when people were recording and analyzing PHC drop rates that is sufficiently different from player observations that it literally would be statistically significant proof the drop system was malfunctioning for PHC crystals.
I hate to break it to you but Jim... isn’t real
However when i recently opened 200 phc i recieved 5 4* which is just above the 2% and just the other day an ally mate of mine opened 10 and recieved 3.....
Also until we see the drop rates fromshard crystals they may be different.
The image shows full phc at 2% for a 4*
The shard version may infact be only 1%
Alot of peeps have long believe there a difference.... we will just have to wait and see if maybe there is
I think the sample size of data that you are basing your opinion on is probably too small in this case to determine if they are in control or out of control. I average at least 50-60 PHC shard crystals per month. I open ten at a time and just last week I pulled three 4*s. The odds are maddening, but I do not think they have ever been adjusted.
The second analysis I did on PHC drops on Reddit back when people were still streaming huge PHC openings was based on a sample size of several thousand openings, something like 7000 if I recall correctly. The number I got was about one in 115, plus or minus about 15%. So between one in one hundred and one in 120, with a fairly decent confidence level. A lot of time has passed since then so odds could be different now, but at the time I was pretty confident the statistical analysis was valid.
I wouldn't consider this possibility unless the statistical data was very strong. Even a couple hundred openings would be statistically inconclusive. You need enough data to generate at least 50-100 4* champions to start to home in on the first digit of the percentage odds. At the time I was looking, I'm statistically certain that digit wasn't 2 to a high degree of confidence.
But there is your problem. Haven't you already skewed your results by taking only a subset of users in this case? I get that the sample should be reasonably confident for the population as a whole since the odds should be the same regardless, but we all know that some people just have more luck than others and there are outliers.
It is possible to manipulate surveys and polls by simply ommiting certain reaults. Not saying that this is wat was done by @DNA3000 here but we all know that people on reddit only post he very bad or the very good luck.... mostly the very good and almost never the average. Meaning the dara used to create this was likely not an actual accurate picture to begin with.
But my hypothesis is not that the sample was innacurate but in fact that wat kabam have shown here is for a full phc at 2% and a shard phc is half of that at only 1% given the fact they are a **** load more common.... lers wait and see
I completely agree and to speculate anything right now does not make a lot of sense. And @DNA3000, I am not questioning your sampling, just proposing why something could be amiss.
How about putting a prize tag on champs. Straight up prize tag.
If that was actually true, certain champs wouldn't be so much harder to attain than others