WW2 cutoff prediction

I went for him when he was the featured and since then I've pulled him twice from 4* crystals and one from a phc after getting 412 in the old system and just missing out on him

explorershane

2.8 tops

Jimbojames23

Yeah I'm not sure what all you guys are smoking but he isn't going above 3, anyone who doesn't have him I seriously recommend picking him up but he's been around a long time and a wide range of players already have him, I'm guessing the 4-5mill predictions are either new players or people who are salty over not getting hype/GP/voodoo??

DNA3000

Jimbojames23 wrote: »

Yeah I'm not sure what all you guys are smoking but he isn't going above 3, anyone who doesn't have him I seriously recommend picking him up but he's been around a long time and a wide range of players already have him, I'm guessing the 4-5mill predictions are either new players or people who are salty over not getting hype/GP/voodoo??

Some of the predictions floating around are ridiculous, but keeping in mind that there is always an inherent 10-15% margin for error in cutoff predictions due to fluctuations in participation (how many people "get in the pool"), how high Cap will go for is largely a function of how desirable he is combined with how long he's been around (which determines how many people have him already) and whether he's been the basic before. If people perceive him to be worth as much as Magik, then Magik went for about 3 million each time. Between then and now, players are scoring points about 15% faster due to general score inflation, and another 10-15% faster due to 14.0. So hypothetically speaking, if players expend the same effort as they did for Magik, the cutoff will land about 4 million.

On the other hand, people don't always shoot for the same effort. They sometimes aim for a score. If they do, the score will land closer to about 3 million, because inflation will just allow players to finish quicker.

The second highest repeat basic was Dr. Strange, who scored about 2.5 million more recently. If Cap is valued comparable to Strange, the scores could end up closer to 2.5 million.

That makes the reasonable range of cutoff scoring something between 2.5 million and 4 million. I think the figure of merit is about 3 million, maybe a little higher. But if the right 12 thousand players disagree, the score could be significantly higher or lower.

I will be very surprised if Cap goes for under 2.3 million, or over 4.3 million. But anything within that range is not entirely unreasonable.

TheOneAndOnly

3 million to 4 million is probably the range he will go in. He has been around for quite some time, but he is not as common as original Cappy. Plus I think a lot of people want him to dupe him.

hurricant

1 dollar BOB!

TheOneAndOnly

hurricant wrote: »

1 dollar BOB!

Price is wrong, Bob!

LeNoirFaineant

I think 3.5 is safe. Magik went for 3 and there is a new champ for featured.

I_am_Groot

TheOneAndOnly wrote: »

3 million to 4 million is probably the range he will go in. He has been around for quite some time, but he is not as common as original Cappy. Plus I think a lot of people want him to dupe him.

Basic cannot be duped, it's just a single SIG point.

I think cutoff could be lower because many cheaters, sharers, etc were banned. Just look the huge down in the 2nd GP round.

DNA3000

I_am_Groot wrote: »

TheOneAndOnly wrote: »

3 million to 4 million is probably the range he will go in. He has been around for quite some time, but he is not as common as original Cappy. Plus I think a lot of people want him to dupe him.

Basic cannot be duped, it's just a single SIG point.

I think most people still call that being duped, as it is in fact duplicating the champ.

I think cutoff could be lower because many cheaters, sharers, etc were banned. Just look the huge down in the 2nd GP round.

Gwenpool's drop in round two was almost identical to Voodoo's round two drop, and even digging deeper into the scoring I don't think there's any evidence the bans materially altered arena cutoffs. I'm sure some number of grinders were banned, but not enough to show an obvious change in scoring.

Monasou

I_am_Groot wrote: »

TheOneAndOnly wrote: »

I think cutoff could be lower because many cheaters, sharers, etc were banned. Just look the huge down in the 2nd GP round.

The timing of the ban wave was pretty important. it was just after 24 hours in so those people who got banned were already above 150k but couldn't go any higher.

Adding to that a lot of people expected it to be 5.8M-6M again so plenty of people didn't bother doing the grind fearing they would waste their time again. some of the people who could have pushed the cutoff higher didn't put in the points on day 1 since they didn't know the ban wave was going to reduce the competition.

Then the T4B arena started on the 3rd day so some people had to put points there instead of GP arena.

Not to mention the second round is during the work week so a good chunk of people just naturally have reduced playtime.

anyways im guessing around 2.5M-3M for captain america since he's good but has been around for a while and T4B was going on when his arena started. His second arena will probably be even lower since grinding the rewards from featured gets you way more shards for the effort and just adding 1 sig level to most champs isnt worth anything.

unknown

DNA3000 wrote: »

I_am_Groot wrote: »

TheOneAndOnly wrote: »

3 million to 4 million is probably the range he will go in. He has been around for quite some time, but he is not as common as original Cappy. Plus I think a lot of people want him to dupe him.

Basic cannot be duped, it's just a single SIG point.

I think most people still call that being duped, as it is in fact duplicating the champ.

I think cutoff could be lower because many cheaters, sharers, etc were banned. Just look the huge down in the 2nd GP round.

Gwenpool's drop in round two was almost identical to Voodoo's round two drop, and even digging deeper into the scoring I don't think there's any evidence the bans materially altered arena cutoffs. I'm sure some number of grinders were banned, but not enough to show an obvious change in scoring.

I think you're wrong. Many predicted the lower cutoff because of the ban, and it seems they were right. We will see in future featured's, but I believe the ban caused the drop.

CrazyMeow

I am at 3.3 million now. will get around 3.6 or 3.7 and wait anxiously.