Checked alt account, not cav, and has class adv
I get them and I am cavalier
For uncollected mystic advancement event has started
I cant find the post from years ago, but solo events were selected like this:Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%. I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring.Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong.
I cant find the post from years ago, but solo events were selected like this:Randomly select 1 event that hasn't occurred in the last 6 selections. Which basically was a 1/12 shot at the eligible events. There are 6 class advancement events. of the 12.Assuming the "last 6" were reset when the event changed and that there are still only 18 events, the odds of no class advancement events appearing in the first 12 is roughly .08%. I don't think it is unwarranted to question if something has changed or if an error is occurring.Would love for @DNA3000 to check my math here, but something is changed/wrong. I'm assuming the math you were doing was to compute the odds of not pulling one of six possible events from a total set of 18, assuming that as each event is pulled it cannot be pulled again within the next six pulls. If so, then the odds of not pulling the desired six out of eighteen total is calculated by multiplying the odds of the first pull not being one of the six, which is 12/18, followed by the odds of the next one missing which is 11/17 (because you cannot pull that first one again, so there's 17 possibilities and 6 are the ones you're looking for, so there are 11 that miss), and so on. 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 for the first six pulls. After that, the odds of continuing to miss are 6/12 for ever pull after that, because there will always be six options that are disqualified (they cannot repeat within the window) and six options you want and six you don't want of the remainder. So 12/18 * 11/17 * 10/16 * 9/15 * 8/14 * 7/13 * (6/12)^6. That comes out to be about 0.07777% or about 0.08%. So that agrees with your calculations.However, I suspect @Weaksauce_1 may be onto something. If in fact the combat events now comprmise 36 of all the possibilities instead of six of them, that would imply there are now something like 48 possibilities. In that case, the same calculation above makes the odds of not seeing advancements events 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 * 39/45 * 38/44 * 37/43 * (36/42)^6 ~= 0.1695 or about 17%. That's not terribly unlikely.