Champions’ probability in crystal pools intentionally different?

Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.

I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.

But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?

Comments

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GroundedWisdom

This is false. It's the same drop rate unless specified.

Colinwhitworth69

Your friend's tinfoil hat is too tight.

Kabam Miike

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).

Demonzfyre

Was your alliance mate Prof Hoff?

Kaalen

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).

Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

GroundedWisdom

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

That's a perception issue. Examine the number of Champions people call "worse", and compare it to the number people call "better". It's statistically weighted to show more because there are less Champs people are pulling for. That isn't connected to the Drop Rates in any way.

danielmath

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

Then why even ask? if you won't believe the answer, why waste time asking

LeNoirFaineant

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

There are more bad champs then good champs, therefore you will get bad champs more often. What you are saying is that Kabam is "clearly" lying, and breaking the law in order to screw the players lol.

Furrymoosen

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case.

Kabam Miike

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

Why would you ask a question just to then poo-poo the answer? Anyways, I can only tell you the truth; it's your choice what you want to do with that information.

Kaalen

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often
Why would you ask a question just to then poo-poo the answer? Anyways, I can only tell you the truth; it's your choice what you want to do with that information.

If you read my question you’ll see I wanted to know if it was an open thing. I didn’t ask whether it was a thing or not.

It’s quite easy to notice really. I have pulled more Starlords than all 6 of the current featured champions in the pool combined. How is that an even probability chance?

Before that? I got Jubilee half a dozen times, zero times OS, Hulkling, Scorpion, Rintrah, Black Cat.

Every crystal that shows up is the same story. For me, and a ton of people I talk with.

Trust me, I am not making this up (I wish I were actually). Simple data.

But some guy up there is right, I shouldn’t have come here, since there is nothing I stand to gain from this. I’m out

meorean

Trust me, I am not making this up (I wish I were actually). Simple data.

But some guy up there is right, I shouldn’t have come here, since there is nothing I stand to gain from this. I’m out

Show us the data that proves your theory then. My guess is that you actually have no numbers, but I would love to be proven wrong

ThēMandalorian

Even someone cynical would know that is inherently false.

There's no real conspiracy with crystals giving lesser valued champions over any of your wanted champions.

Literally a percentage to pull any champion in the pool is equal in value.

Demonzfyre

Trust me, I am not making this up (I wish I were actually). Simple data.

But some guy up there is right, I shouldn’t have come here, since there is nothing I stand to gain from this. I’m out
Show us the data that proves your theory then. My guess is that you actually have no numbers, but I would love to be proven wrong

Show us the data that proves it's not. Other than the "Trust me bro" data you tinfoilers have.

Phantomfire500

Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.

I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.

But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?

There's a video where Prof Hoffman goes into a tirade about Miike saying they want to "keep 2016 champs simple because new players are more likely to get and use them" which is pretty damning...Until you think about it for 5 seconds and realise the "basic" 1/2* pool is much more limited than other crystals, and 1/2*s are aimed at newer players.

That and a whole lot of negativity bias is the only "evidence"

Kabam Miike

Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.

I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.

But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?
There's a video where Prof Hoffman goes into a tirade about Miike saying they want to "keep 2016 champs simple because new players are more likely to get and use them" which is pretty damning...Until you think about it for 5 seconds and realise the "basic" 1/2* pool is much more limited than other crystals, and 1/2*s are aimed at newer players.

That and a whole lot of negativity bias is the only "evidence"

Not just the 1/2-Star Crystals, but Players in lower PRG levels have Daily Crystals that give Champs from earlier years because they are simpler.

BigPoppaCBONE

I figure these things come from regularly opening 10 or less basic pool crystals and getting 3 or more Groots (or highly improbable multiples of some other champs that sucks). I would definitely post it somewhere if I ever opened 10 or less basic pool crystals and got 2 or more Herculeses (or highly improbable multiples of some other top tier champ).

Tx_Quack_Attack6589

I think I get his point, there are 24 champs in the featured pool so by his logic if he opens 24 he must get 1 of each champ otherwise it’s impossible that each had the same chance, sadly he doesn’t get that it’s based on per crystal so each time you open a crystal the “odds” are reset to even and thus you can pull more of one champ and still have even odds of pulling any given champ.

DRTO

I really want to see this alliance chat cause these guys are cuckoo

AverageDesi

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
Lol, you might say that, but that is clearly not the case. Worse champs appear much more often

I'm the recent featured i got more Valkyrie than i got Groot and rocket combined. There's more chance to get good champions.

/S but the point stands

DNA3000

Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.

I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.

But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?
There's a video where Prof Hoffman goes into a tirade about Miike saying they want to "keep 2016 champs simple because new players are more likely to get and use them" which is pretty damning...Until you think about it for 5 seconds and realise the "basic" 1/2* pool is much more limited than other crystals, and 1/2*s are aimed at newer players.

That and a whole lot of negativity bias is the only "evidence"
Not just the 1/2-Star Crystals, but Players in lower PRG levels have Daily Crystals that give Champs from earlier years because they are simpler.

Where do I go in the game to buy a 1/2 star crystal?

TheBair123

Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.

I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.

But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?
There's a video where Prof Hoffman goes into a tirade about Miike saying they want to "keep 2016 champs simple because new players are more likely to get and use them" which is pretty damning...Until you think about it for 5 seconds and realise the "basic" 1/2* pool is much more limited than other crystals, and 1/2*s are aimed at newer players.

That and a whole lot of negativity bias is the only "evidence"
Not just the 1/2-Star Crystals, but Players in lower PRG levels have Daily Crystals that give Champs from earlier years because they are simpler.
Where do I go in the game to buy a 1/2 star crystal?

you have to explore act ¼

Feuerschwer

I opened two crystals and got two Thors, Half-Life 3 confirmed!

NastyPhish

I went on a 6 month 6* dry spell were nothing was worth ranking then the last three months it’s been only good champs. And I can’t possibly rank them all. So it’s just rng man.

DNA3000

It’s quite easy to notice really. I have pulled more Starlords than all 6 of the current featured champions in the pool combined. How is that an even probability chance?

My drops from the current 6* featured crystal:

cf: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/323385/gatcha-math-and-the-featured-6-crystal-not-a-cry-for-help-probably

As to how someone could pull more Starlords than all the other featureds combined, that's random chance. My six lowest quantity pulls were Rocket (0), Thor (1), Mr. Negative (1), SW (1), Valkyrie (1), and Man-Thing, which I collectively pulled five times. There were two champs I pulled more than that: Quicksilver (6) and Titania (6). Such distributions are normal for random pulls.

I pulled featured champs 22 times out of 69 pulls, which is 32% of my pulls. That's actually significantly higher than random chance would predict (25%) but not so high so as to be unusually high.

It should be noted that had I gotten just two or three of every champ in the crystal in an even way, that would be very strong evidence that the crystal was rigged to do so and not random. Such an even distribution happening by random chance is extremely unlikely.

Whenever someone claims to have evidence of problems with the random distribution of the crystals, they either refer vaguely to "you know, everyone sees it" or a relatively tiny amount of data. When you look at hundreds to thousands of crystals, and you also properly calculate what the random distributions will generally look like, those biases tend to disappear.

Notably, and I do enjoy pointing this out, when the cinematic crystal came out, someone posted on the forums that the pulls people were posting in that thread *proved* the crystal was biased. However, not only would it not do so - because a forum thread is not a statistically unbiased sampling - but what I find more important is that this person *saw* bias in the thread, when a careful counting of the posts showed no such bias. Proving that people only see what they want to see, even when all it takes is just counting posts to prove what they see is a complete illusion in their own minds. No complex statistical math, just counting.

spigwender

Was your alliance mate Prof Hoff?

Got him lmao

DNA3000

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.

There used to be an unfortunately worded knowledge base article that some people have interpreted to mean that every champ has a difference chance to appear, when the wording in context appeared to be referring to crystals with different rarities having different designed drop rates for those different rarity pools.

It has passed into the collective tin foil hat collective unconscious, along with the reliable method to get 4* champs from PHCs and various things having to do with patents.

BigPoppaCBONE

Probably have less hassle and conspiracy threads if they would just be done with it and actually designate the list of champs that suck as "commons" and every 10 commons you get a guaranteed "uncommon". Keep the odds the same otherwise but throw people a pity champ for their trouble.

GroundedWisdom

This is false, and nothing we have ever said would back that up.
There used to be an unfortunately worded knowledge base article that some people have interpreted to mean that every champ has a difference chance to appear, when the wording in context appeared to be referring to crystals with different rarities having different designed drop rates for those different rarity pools.

It has passed into the collective tin foil hat collective unconscious, along with the reliable method to get 4* champs from PHCs and various things having to do with patents.

I believe that was the Support SS that indicated there were "many factors" that go into Champions. That term was exaggerated into being misconstrued as some form of deception.