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The WoP 2025 rework vote isn't over yet
DNA3000
Member, Guardian Guardian › Posts: 21,034 Guardian
So here's the current state of voting for the Women of Power 2025 rework event:
The clear leader is X-23 with about 32 million votes. Rogue is in second with about 29 million, and everyone else is far behind. If nothing changes significantly, the only race is between Proxima and Squirrel Girl for fifth place: they are in an essential tie right now. So is it over?
Maybe not. For one thing, the lead X-23 has over Rogue is growing, but the rate of growth is slowing: X-23 is still scoring more points per hour, but that scoring gap is slowing a bit over time:
The bigger question is whether there are any points available to be swayed. If everyone keeps scoring at the same rate for the same champs, more or less, then the gaps between the champs is large enough to make any small random fluctuations meaningless. But there is a way for the points to swing enough to change the leader. In fact, there's enough points in theory to allow any of the champs to still take the lead, albeit this is most likely for Rogue as the gap is the smallest.
There are four sources for points: the 160 point bonus you get when you select and lock in a champion for ballots, the 13 points you get for using a promocode for a champ, and the two daily sources: the fight-five 30 point objective and the 19 point selector objective. Most of the points scored in the first 24 hours were from the one-time point sources, particularly the 160 points for picking a champion initially. However, most of the points scored after that were from the daily objectives. Let's take a look at scoring after the first day, and linearly project the scoring for the top two champs:
The slope of the scoring curves represent the average points per hour, and we can see the linear projections very closely match the actual scoring over time, with small daily fluctuations consistent with daily activity swings in the game in general (we saw the same sort of thing in other Realm Events). The slope of the X-23 curve is about 152,500 points per hour, and the slope of the Rogue curve is about 131,400 points per hour. On average, X-23 is gaining about 3.66 million points and Rogue 3.15 million points per day.
Let's assume that all of those points are coming from daily objectives. We have 30 points per day that is locked in: they can't be changed from the initial selection that the player made. But 19 points can be changed to any champ using the selector. Those points are still up for grabs, as they can go to any champ and are not locked in. We have no way of knowing how many points come from 30 point objectives and how many come from 19 point objectives. The 30 point objective is far easier to get though, as you only need to win five fights. You need to use specific champs to get the selector. So a casual player could easily get one and not the other on any particular day. So of all the points being scored, some fraction are "swayable" points and that fraction is between zero (no one is getting the selector) and about 39% (everyone is). I'm going to conservatively estimate that about 10% of all points scored come from the selector and thus are swayable points, and could change if the player so chose. Are there enough points to bridge the gap between X-23 and Rogue?
Well, first let's look at total points scored:
The total points scored is averaging 707,824 points per hour, or about 16,987,776 points per day. About 21.5% of them are X-23 ballots and let's assume none of them change. That leaves about 13,335,000 ballots, and 1,333,500 swayable ballots per day among all other players. Let's further assume that of all the players earning selectors, all of them choose to try to collect all the profile pictures so seven of them are committed to doing that. That leaves at least 19 days of selectors up for grabs, assuming Kabam fixes any bugged selector discrepancies. 19 x 1,333,500 = 25,336,500 ballots theoretically swayable over the voting period. Jubilee is currently in last place down 19 million ballots down from X-23. That amount of ballots would put her in first place.
Of course, this does not factor in the players already voting for a particular champ other than X-23. The largest such voting block is currently Rogue, at 18.6% of the votes. If we also remove those votes from the swayable category for Rogue (as they are already voting for her) that reduces the swayable pool down to about ten million ballots with one million swayable and about 19 million ballots still up for grabs in the event, which is still enough to put everyone mathematically still in contention (there are more votes swayable to other champs, because those champs have fewer locked in votes to start, but this just simplifies things a bit).
Of course, that's never going to happen. But given the current gap between X-23 and Rogue is about 2.6 million ballots, that's a bridgeable gap. If only 10% of all the players are swayable, and only a quarter of those change their vote to Rogue, that would equalize the race.
So technically speaking, it is still a race. X-23 is the clear favorite, and that shows no signs of changing in the data at the moment. But perhaps that might change in a few days when the players who are collecting selectors complete their set and then have to decide which champ to vote for with their remaining two weeks plus of selector votes. Between the selector set and the objective bugs, I would expect to see any sort of selector ballot shift by early next week if it was going to happen at all. So we'll see.
The clear leader is X-23 with about 32 million votes. Rogue is in second with about 29 million, and everyone else is far behind. If nothing changes significantly, the only race is between Proxima and Squirrel Girl for fifth place: they are in an essential tie right now. So is it over?
Maybe not. For one thing, the lead X-23 has over Rogue is growing, but the rate of growth is slowing: X-23 is still scoring more points per hour, but that scoring gap is slowing a bit over time:
The bigger question is whether there are any points available to be swayed. If everyone keeps scoring at the same rate for the same champs, more or less, then the gaps between the champs is large enough to make any small random fluctuations meaningless. But there is a way for the points to swing enough to change the leader. In fact, there's enough points in theory to allow any of the champs to still take the lead, albeit this is most likely for Rogue as the gap is the smallest.
There are four sources for points: the 160 point bonus you get when you select and lock in a champion for ballots, the 13 points you get for using a promocode for a champ, and the two daily sources: the fight-five 30 point objective and the 19 point selector objective. Most of the points scored in the first 24 hours were from the one-time point sources, particularly the 160 points for picking a champion initially. However, most of the points scored after that were from the daily objectives. Let's take a look at scoring after the first day, and linearly project the scoring for the top two champs:
The slope of the scoring curves represent the average points per hour, and we can see the linear projections very closely match the actual scoring over time, with small daily fluctuations consistent with daily activity swings in the game in general (we saw the same sort of thing in other Realm Events). The slope of the X-23 curve is about 152,500 points per hour, and the slope of the Rogue curve is about 131,400 points per hour. On average, X-23 is gaining about 3.66 million points and Rogue 3.15 million points per day.
Let's assume that all of those points are coming from daily objectives. We have 30 points per day that is locked in: they can't be changed from the initial selection that the player made. But 19 points can be changed to any champ using the selector. Those points are still up for grabs, as they can go to any champ and are not locked in. We have no way of knowing how many points come from 30 point objectives and how many come from 19 point objectives. The 30 point objective is far easier to get though, as you only need to win five fights. You need to use specific champs to get the selector. So a casual player could easily get one and not the other on any particular day. So of all the points being scored, some fraction are "swayable" points and that fraction is between zero (no one is getting the selector) and about 39% (everyone is). I'm going to conservatively estimate that about 10% of all points scored come from the selector and thus are swayable points, and could change if the player so chose. Are there enough points to bridge the gap between X-23 and Rogue?
Well, first let's look at total points scored:
The total points scored is averaging 707,824 points per hour, or about 16,987,776 points per day. About 21.5% of them are X-23 ballots and let's assume none of them change. That leaves about 13,335,000 ballots, and 1,333,500 swayable ballots per day among all other players. Let's further assume that of all the players earning selectors, all of them choose to try to collect all the profile pictures so seven of them are committed to doing that. That leaves at least 19 days of selectors up for grabs, assuming Kabam fixes any bugged selector discrepancies. 19 x 1,333,500 = 25,336,500 ballots theoretically swayable over the voting period. Jubilee is currently in last place down 19 million ballots down from X-23. That amount of ballots would put her in first place.
Of course, this does not factor in the players already voting for a particular champ other than X-23. The largest such voting block is currently Rogue, at 18.6% of the votes. If we also remove those votes from the swayable category for Rogue (as they are already voting for her) that reduces the swayable pool down to about ten million ballots with one million swayable and about 19 million ballots still up for grabs in the event, which is still enough to put everyone mathematically still in contention (there are more votes swayable to other champs, because those champs have fewer locked in votes to start, but this just simplifies things a bit).
Of course, that's never going to happen. But given the current gap between X-23 and Rogue is about 2.6 million ballots, that's a bridgeable gap. If only 10% of all the players are swayable, and only a quarter of those change their vote to Rogue, that would equalize the race.
So technically speaking, it is still a race. X-23 is the clear favorite, and that shows no signs of changing in the data at the moment. But perhaps that might change in a few days when the players who are collecting selectors complete their set and then have to decide which champ to vote for with their remaining two weeks plus of selector votes. Between the selector set and the objective bugs, I would expect to see any sort of selector ballot shift by early next week if it was going to happen at all. So we'll see.
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Comments
The maximum milestone for the Realm event(s) is 1300 points. You get 160 when you select your champ, and in theory you can earn 49 points per day from the special daily objectives over the event's 26 days. If you also used the webstore code for your champ, that's an additional 13 points.
The maximum possible points is thus 160 + 13 + 49x26 = 1447. Theoretically speaking, you have 147 points more than needed to max out the milestones, and if you choose to divert the selector points somewhere else - say, to collect the profile pics or to try to influence the vote - you have 147/19 =7.7 or seven days of milestones you can send anywhere and still get all of the milestones.
If we assume no one will ever do more than that, then there are closer to seven million points up for grabs.
So yeah, you can divert seven selectors to another champ safely, assuming you do not miss any days. Otherwise, diverting points will cost some rewards.
So cannot take the risk
But seriously.. this is freaking impressive dude!
If everyone stays in their lane, I expect the end result to be more or less what it is now (although there’s an ultra tight race for fifth place if anyone cares). But stranger things have happened. I don’t think anyone expected someone to open almost two hundred thousand crystals during crystal cleanse or see almost a hundred thousand players reach the Gladiator Circuit during the Battlegrounds realm event. Sometimes players just go bananas.
My track record for being personally disappointed in these votes is perfect.
Something has to give. The smart money says I will be disappointed again