What's the probability to get black cat from these 6 Loyalty crystals?

So far there is no update on 7 star loyalty and incursion crystal to get updated so I was buying these 7 star loyalty crystal from radiance and loyalty store for a while because I have all other champs in these pool except Black cat

So I thought to try my luck with pop these 6 Loyalty crystals atleast one of them will might give me Black Cat

This is what I have right now

And the only missing piece is

Wish me luck pls 🙏

Comments

ShashankGupta

Chobbly

Good luck - I've been trying to get Black Cat as well but no joy so far. I've got more Mordo and Howard dupes than I would have wanted (but don't mind Mordo to be fair).

Super_Cretu90

I've been chasing Black Cat, too, but got Vision four times. Hahaha!

Ercarret

Yeah, I'm personally chasing both Aarkus (first pull) or a Black Cat dupe, but instead have a natural sig 100 Mordo.

MysticSpectrumXZ

I’m trying to get her too. I have opened only one loyalty crystal and I got Mordo. I felt bad. Black cat is one of my favorite Marvel characters. I have her as a six star but I want the seven star version. I’m collecting more pieces in order to create another loyalty crystal but I don’t have hope to get her soon. I remember they sold her for 9500 units but I hadn’t them at that time. It’s good to save units for those special occasions.

ahmynuts

It's a 16.6666666667% chance to get her

Yaron_aviv

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896447#Comment_2896447

it is definitely not.

Kabam patented tampering with crystal odds based on past spending behavior.

the champs are tiered and the odds of getting them differ from player to player.

how many natural dupes do you have on classic Spider-Man? How many on Onslaught?

BringPopcorn

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896453#Comment_2896453

Yaron_aviv

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896458#Comment_2896458

https://patents.google.com/patent/US9744446B2/en

🙄

BringPopcorn

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896474#Comment_2896474

It's a Loyalty crystal... tampering spending behavior on something that is free?...

GroundedWisdom

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896453#Comment_2896453

This is false.

BringPopcorn

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896480#Comment_2896480

Its on the internet, it has to be true 🤣

GroundedWisdom

Well, it's equal chance at any Champ in it, but I'm not much for probability. Things get conflated IMO. It's also RNG. I pulled her in 2

GroundedWisdom

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896481#Comment_2896481

Same with Fox News.

BringPopcorn

Void keeps avoiding me, F void ..

jdschw

IIf you open one crystal, the probability is 1/6 = 16.67%.

If you open 2 crystals, the probability is (1/6) + (1/6)*(1-1/6). Think about it as (probability of pulling BC on crystal 1) + (probability of pulling BC on crystal 2 if you didn't already pull her on crystal 1).

If you open 6 crystals, the probability is (1/6) + (1/6)*(5/6) + (1/6)*(5/6)² + (1/6)*(5/6)³ + (1/6)*(5/6)⁴ + (1/6)*(5/6)⁵

GroundedWisdom

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896484#Comment_2896484

He was my first

jdschw

If i typed it into the calculator correctly, it's about 66.5%

BringPopcorn

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896491#Comment_2896491

Each crystal resets the probability to the original drop rates its always the same chance 1/6...

jdschw

Yes, but the probability we are calculating is whether Black Cat gets pulled from any of the six crystals. To compute that correctly, you need to account for conditional probability.

One easy way to see that it's not simply adding up (1/6) is: if it did work that way, the probability of pulling Black Cat from 6 crystals is 100%, and that's obviously not true. Even more absurdly, the probability of pulling her from 7 crystals would be over 100%, which makes no sense.

jdschw

@BringPopcorn you're correct that the probability of pulling BC from any one crystal is 1/6. But the probability of pulling her from any of six crystals is the formula i showed above.

GroundedWisdom

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896513#Comment_2896513

The only flaw with that is it doesn't account for randomness. It can come in one, or never in 100. You are correct, though. There is a formula for probability.

ShashankGupta

Screenshot_2025-11-08-23-59-24-13_23a125b6c07cd8b15b17da4ddef0768b.jpg

Thanks guys I got her and instantly r3 her but wtf is the rng I got 6/6 champs that's insane luck I would say it could have gone worse as well but at the end all good

captain_rogers

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896530#Comment_2896530

SHe is also the last champ you got, imagine you got someone instead of her. that would be funny missing that one champ you expected to get lol.

Glad you got her, shes so fine.

JediJones77

Oh, yeah, gotta make her mine…

I recently pulled Black Cat from a single opening of the crystal. Didn't buy any with radiance, just loyalty. I already had all the other champs from the crystal. My Storm is sig 20, Mordo sig 20 and Aarkus sig 40. So I never got stuck in too bad a rut. She was from my 10th opening.

Average_Desi

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896529#Comment_2896529

That's not a flaw. The number 66.6% is stated exactly by accounting for randomness

GroundedWisdom

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896551#Comment_2896551

It's impossible to account for randomness.

GroundedWisdom

You could theoretically pull a BC 10/10 times, and you could calculate the probability of that happening after the fact, but you can't predict the randomness of that happening based on X number of pulls and Y number of possibilities. It's always an after calculation.

We call it luck, or unlucky, but random is random.

Herbal_Taxman

Well, this thread proved once again that summoners don’t understand probability. (Except for @jdschw good job on you bud)

captain_rogers

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2896558#Comment_2896558

Probably doesn't mean it happens x/n times out of n times (x<n here) guaranteed. Probability just means ignoring all the randomness and if we assume things go fair, this is how things work.

As the sample size grows, it always go in such a way that it always end up close to expected probability.

Example, toss 10 coins, high chance you may get 10 heads or tails.
Although it is possible to get 10 million heads "theoratically", if you toss a coin 10 million times, it is almost always you get near around 5 million heads and tails with 1% margin of error.

Similarly open 1 billion loyalty crystal, I bet for sure you will get each champ atleast 160 million tims. You open 100 crystals, no guarantee you will get each champ 16 times. That is how probability works. Increase the sample size and you tend towards more accuracy. and theoratically at some point you are guaranteed to get exact accurate results somewhere near infinity.