Crystal drop rate order of operations clarification

If you have a 4% chance of a 4 star hero, and a .85% chance at a Sabertooth, does the crystal system do 2 picks, where first you got within the 4% for a 4 star hero, then in the second, it translates the .85% chance to a 21% chance out of the 4%? Or does it just do one pick and over all you have a .85% chance at a 4star sabertooth.

I'm inclined to believe the latter, but j just want to see if anyone has insight.

P.S. sorry for all the numbers

Comments

DNA3000

I believe that those are true odds: there's a 4% chance to pull a 4* champ, and there is a 0.85% chance to pull the featured 4* champ. Or to put it another way, there's a 4% chance to pull 4* champion, and if you pull a 4* champion there's a 21.25% chance that it will be the featured champion (4% * 21.25% = 0.85%). But how that works mechanically is something we wouldn't be able to tell (or necessarily care about) most of the time, because order of operation is an implementation thing which doesn't affect the final odds.

To put it another way, these two implementations are indistinguishable to players:

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Implementation B:
Roll once to see if featured: 2.85% chance for featured, 97.15% chance for non-featured. If featured roll again: 0.85/2.85 chance for 4* (~29.82%) and 2.0/2.85 chance for 3*. If not featured roll again for tier: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. Roll once more to pick randomly from general pool for appropriate tier.

I think the former is more likely than the latter, but either generates the same results.

djr17

I think it would be more analogous to picking numbers/lotto balls.

Of the 10000 options:
85 are 4* ST, 0.85%
200 are 3* St, 2%
315 evenly distributed amungst remaining 4* pool, 3.15%+0.85%ST= 4%
1800 evenly distributed amungst remaining 3* pool, 18%+2%= 20%
7600 evenly distributed amungst 2* pool, 76%

MasterFlint

DNA3000 wrote: »

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

MasterFlint

MasterFlint wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

Or put another way, out of 100,000 crystals openings, 34 of them will be a 4* Sabretooth on average.

MasterFlint

djr17 wrote: »

315 evenly distributed amungst remaining 4* pool, 3.15%+0.85%ST= 4%
1800 evenly distributed amungst remaining 3* pool, 18%+2%= 20%
7600 evenly distributed amungst 2* pool, 76%

I don't believe Kabam has ever stated there is an even distribution amongst the remaining pools.

djr17

ok, so skip the word evenly. my point remains

Tomichiwar

MasterFlint wrote: »

djr17 wrote: »

315 evenly distributed amungst remaining 4* pool, 3.15%+0.85%ST= 4%
1800 evenly distributed amungst remaining 3* pool, 18%+2%= 20%
7600 evenly distributed amungst 2* pool, 76%

I don't believe Kabam has ever stated there is an even distribution amongst the remaining pools.

Miike has stated multiple times on this forum that odds are even for every champion on the remaining pools just like in the basic crystals. It’s just that people don’t want to believe in that and prefer to think the game is rigged

DNA3000

MasterFlint wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

That would make the stated odds false, and also contradict player testing by several orders of magnitude.

DNA3000

Tomichiwar wrote: »

MasterFlint wrote: »

djr17 wrote: »

315 evenly distributed amungst remaining 4* pool, 3.15%+0.85%ST= 4%
1800 evenly distributed amungst remaining 3* pool, 18%+2%= 20%
7600 evenly distributed amungst 2* pool, 76%

I don't believe Kabam has ever stated there is an even distribution amongst the remaining pools.

Miike has stated multiple times on this forum that odds are even for every champion on the remaining pools just like in the basic crystals. It’s just that people don’t want to believe in that and prefer to think the game is rigged

More specifically @Kabam Miike and others have stated more than once that champions of equal reward tier have the same chance of dropping unless explicitly stated otherwise, very specifically in the case of featured champion crystals. And those are my words, "equal reward tier" they are not an attempt by Kabam to play word games. They've stated it with many different wordings at different times intended to clearly encapsulate the notion that when a crystal can drop a 4* champion (for example) all 4* champions that are in the crystal at all have the same chance of dropping, except when specifically stated otherwise in the case of featured crystals or special crystals that explicitly state that certain specific champions have a higher than normal chance of dropping.

Codornas

I only see as a 99% chance of a 3*

MasterFlint

DNA3000 wrote: »

MasterFlint wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

That would make the stated odds false, and also contradict player testing by several orders of magnitude.

That would not make the stated odds false, the OP is asking for the order of operations. It does not clearly state which operation happens first. People are assuming, the OP is asking for clarification which I believe is a good question.

Gwendoline

MasterFlint wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

Someone (I think Miike, but maybe Wolf) asked the team about this when the odds first came out. It's confirmed by the team that it's a 0.85% overall chance, not a 0.034%

MasterFlint

DNA3000 wrote: »

More specifically @Kabam Miike and others have stated more than once that champions of equal reward tier have the same chance of dropping unless explicitly stated otherwise, very specifically in the case of featured champion crystals. And those are my words, "equal reward tier" they are not an attempt by Kabam to play word games. They've stated it with many different wordings at different times intended to clearly encapsulate the notion that when a crystal can drop a 4* champion (for example) all 4* champions that are in the crystal at all have the same chance of dropping, except when specifically stated otherwise in the case of featured crystals or special crystals that explicitly state that certain specific champions have a higher than normal chance of dropping.

No, he's never stated it in clear words. Nor has Kabam. The community has assumed this. Their wording is always intended to imply something that we the community then assume. Looking at the wording from a legal aspect, there is room left for interpretation.

The wording that I have seen was 'all champions in the crystal'. I would ask the question what crystal? The crystal that is sent to me that was assigned a subset of all possible champs?

Kabam could easily clear this up by giving the odds for each champ, but they have not done that. And I would wager a large amount of money that it is not a uniform distribution as you are assuming.

MasterFlint

Gwendoline wrote: »

MasterFlint wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.

Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034

Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%

Someone (I think Miike, but maybe Wolf) asked the team about this when the odds first came out. It's confirmed by the team that it's a 0.85% overall chance, not a 0.034%

I believe this to be true as well, but do not have the link and wanted to clarify the OP with my response.

McocBlade

opened 7 crystal and got only one 3 star other 2 stars , i should have read this earlier

MasterFlint

MasterFlint wrote: »

Kabam could easily clear this up by giving the odds for each champ, but they have not done that. And I would wager a large amount of money that it is not a uniform distribution as you are assuming.

And for the record, I'm mostly ok with this. It allows the less active people in my alliance that open up a 5 star every 2 months to get good champs, instead of crummy ones more often than not. Which helps them contribute to war and AQ