Crystal drop rate order of operations clarification
Time4ASpanking
Member Posts: 199 ★
If you have a 4% chance of a 4 star hero, and a .85% chance at a Sabertooth, does the crystal system do 2 picks, where first you got within the 4% for a 4 star hero, then in the second, it translates the .85% chance to a 21% chance out of the 4%? Or does it just do one pick and over all you have a .85% chance at a 4star sabertooth.
I'm inclined to believe the latter, but j just want to see if anyone has insight.
P.S. sorry for all the numbers
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To put it another way, these two implementations are indistinguishable to players:
Implementation A:
Roll once to see which rank champion is dropped: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. After you roll, if it is a 4*, roll again to see if featured: 21.25% chance for featured, 78.75% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to pick randomly from the general pool. If 3* roll again to see if featured: 10% chance for featured, 90% chance for anything else. If anything else, roll again to choose randomly from the general pool.
Implementation B:
Roll once to see if featured: 2.85% chance for featured, 97.15% chance for non-featured. If featured roll again: 0.85/2.85 chance for 4* (~29.82%) and 2.0/2.85 chance for 3*. If not featured roll again for tier: 4% chance for 4*, 20% chance for 3*, 76% chance for 2*. Roll once more to pick randomly from general pool for appropriate tier.
I think the former is more likely than the latter, but either generates the same results.
Of the 10000 options:
85 are 4* ST, 0.85%
200 are 3* St, 2%
315 evenly distributed amungst remaining 4* pool, 3.15%+0.85%ST= 4%
1800 evenly distributed amungst remaining 3* pool, 18%+2%= 20%
7600 evenly distributed amungst 2* pool, 76%
Or, once it is rolled a 4*, you have a 0.85% chance that it will be sabretooth.
0.0085 * 0.04 = 0.00034
Chance to receive a 4* Sabretooth = 0.034%
I don't believe Kabam has ever stated there is an even distribution amongst the remaining pools.
Miike has stated multiple times on this forum that odds are even for every champion on the remaining pools just like in the basic crystals. It’s just that people don’t want to believe in that and prefer to think the game is rigged
That would make the stated odds false, and also contradict player testing by several orders of magnitude.
More specifically @Kabam Miike and others have stated more than once that champions of equal reward tier have the same chance of dropping unless explicitly stated otherwise, very specifically in the case of featured champion crystals. And those are my words, "equal reward tier" they are not an attempt by Kabam to play word games. They've stated it with many different wordings at different times intended to clearly encapsulate the notion that when a crystal can drop a 4* champion (for example) all 4* champions that are in the crystal at all have the same chance of dropping, except when specifically stated otherwise in the case of featured crystals or special crystals that explicitly state that certain specific champions have a higher than normal chance of dropping.
That would not make the stated odds false, the OP is asking for the order of operations. It does not clearly state which operation happens first. People are assuming, the OP is asking for clarification which I believe is a good question.
Someone (I think Miike, but maybe Wolf) asked the team about this when the odds first came out. It's confirmed by the team that it's a 0.85% overall chance, not a 0.034%
No, he's never stated it in clear words. Nor has Kabam. The community has assumed this. Their wording is always intended to imply something that we the community then assume. Looking at the wording from a legal aspect, there is room left for interpretation.
The wording that I have seen was 'all champions in the crystal'. I would ask the question what crystal? The crystal that is sent to me that was assigned a subset of all possible champs?
Kabam could easily clear this up by giving the odds for each champ, but they have not done that. And I would wager a large amount of money that it is not a uniform distribution as you are assuming.
I believe this to be true as well, but do not have the link and wanted to clarify the OP with my response.
And for the record, I'm mostly ok with this. It allows the less active people in my alliance that open up a 5 star every 2 months to get good champs, instead of crummy ones more often than not. Which helps them contribute to war and AQ