The Truth About 5* Drop Rates
vinniegainz
Member Posts: 902 ★★★
This is not just another complaining thread I am hoping to shed light on why YOU SHOULD expect to pull a trashcan, and not just any trashcan, an original trashcan.
Wondering why you keep getting horrible champs?
Wondering why you keep getting old champs?
Maybe these simple probability calculations below will help you out.
The truth about 5* drop rates is that more than likely there is a higher chance to get trashcan old champs so do not be surprised when one does.
Practical example:
I have opened a total of 7 champions in the pool of at least 84 champions (may have counted wrong). 4 of these pulls were featureds but disregard this info for simplicity sake but this is mentioned to acknowledge that if anything this is an underestimate....
All 7 of the pulls were from the original 12 champions (and no not any of the non-transcans such as magik or SL)
So there was always at most a 12/84 chance during these 7 pulls (remember 4 pulls were featureds, and the last 3 were done when there were a total of 86 champs in the basic pool).
Ok so lets use the underestimated value of 12/84 chance to pull an original champ (less if u take out magik or SL for example of a commonly accepted good original champ)
Ok so pulling from the 12 original pool, 7 times in a row is a 1 in a million chance.... Thats right 1 IN A MILLION!
The odds of not pulling a single original pool 5* champ in ALL SEVEN PULLS is approx 34% compare that to 0.0001% chance (1 in a million)
So a 1 in a million chance in the assumption of a "fair" RNG is next to being stastically impossible to be apart of the actual population.
Just thought I should let people know how "fair" kabam's RNG is (some people might understand what "fair" means in stats, unbiased rolls). Also, do not be surprised when you keep pulling that juggs or rhino.
I will now go play the lottery.
Disclaimer: This post was written to amuse those who believed their accounts were hexed by the hood's sp2.
Wondering why you keep getting horrible champs?
Wondering why you keep getting old champs?
Maybe these simple probability calculations below will help you out.
The truth about 5* drop rates is that more than likely there is a higher chance to get trashcan old champs so do not be surprised when one does.
Practical example:
I have opened a total of 7 champions in the pool of at least 84 champions (may have counted wrong). 4 of these pulls were featureds but disregard this info for simplicity sake but this is mentioned to acknowledge that if anything this is an underestimate....
All 7 of the pulls were from the original 12 champions (and no not any of the non-transcans such as magik or SL)
So there was always at most a 12/84 chance during these 7 pulls (remember 4 pulls were featureds, and the last 3 were done when there were a total of 86 champs in the basic pool).
Ok so lets use the underestimated value of 12/84 chance to pull an original champ (less if u take out magik or SL for example of a commonly accepted good original champ)
Ok so pulling from the 12 original pool, 7 times in a row is a 1 in a million chance.... Thats right 1 IN A MILLION!
The odds of not pulling a single original pool 5* champ in ALL SEVEN PULLS is approx 34% compare that to 0.0001% chance (1 in a million)
So a 1 in a million chance in the assumption of a "fair" RNG is next to being stastically impossible to be apart of the actual population.
Just thought I should let people know how "fair" kabam's RNG is (some people might understand what "fair" means in stats, unbiased rolls). Also, do not be surprised when you keep pulling that juggs or rhino.
I will now go play the lottery.
Disclaimer: This post was written to amuse those who believed their accounts were hexed by the hood's sp2.
0
Comments
And remember such a small sample size cannot truly reflect the population with much validity so take it lightly.
That's not 1 in a 1,000,000. That's 1 in 10,000.
Both of which are way better odds than the typical lottery.
Although I'm quite sure that the "value" of pulling a "god-tier" 5 star champ is inarguably lower than winning the lottery.
You sure? Its approx a 14% chance ^ 7 (pulls)
1% means 1 in 100
0.1% means 1 in 1000
0.01% means 1 in 10000
0.001% means 1 in 100000
0.0001% means 1 in 1mill (what we are dealing with)
Yeah for me I just let it go where it wants. I don't invest too much energy into judging my Roster. It all adds up to something. Still trying to Dup my Quake, but I'll take whatever comes.
4*s are a little different. It's mostly Dups now. I finally just pulled a SW from PHC. Almost fell over. Second 4* from PHC today. I'm currently making an appointment with the Proctologist to look for a horseshoe.
Forgive me, if you get as many plain rolls as I do, you get a little happy on the rare occasions things go well.
Lol... yup you're right, I'm a dunce.
I'm still mulling over the 0/13 from Blade featured pulls, which I figured to be 5.5% chance of happening (given 20% drop rate.)
Storm
BPCW
Winter Soldier
KK
Agent Venom
Ronan
Spider Gwen
I dont think its a coincidence either.
Out of the 26 5* that i have, my newest character is Iceman and Rogue
Of those; only storm, winter soldier and Ronan were originally in the game. The rest were added later on.
(Don’t quote me on spidergwen I can’t quite remember if she was there at the start but I’m pretty sure she wasn’t)
Yeah I think she was an early addition after the game launched
Antman
SpiderGwen
Groot
Khamala khan
Ya a lot of alliance members always pull the same champ its quite funny... And not just within the same level crystal but across levels.
For example a month ago my alliance member was the dude that showed the team of 2*-6* RR on reddit it was pretty funny to see him get 5* rocket and 6* rocket so close together.
I wish someone could audit what their randomness claims really are
The issue with that is probably the legalities of the patents attached to the codes they've written.
But I will say this, I am curious to see how they do add the new champions to the RNG because I have a decent understanding of some of the ways the RNGs are coded, so would be interesting to see how they write the new champs in. I won't pretend to know the exact type of coding kabam uses though, never really cared that much because it is just a game I play for fun anyways. However, I do know it is difficult (for me at least) to create code for an unbiased RNG after adding new champs (I would imagine I personally would have to rewrite the entire code).
From a randomness standpoint. Isn’t it just a matter of knowing the number of available champs and dividing by that
But I agree. And knowing Kabam coders I have a feeling older champs drop more frequently. After all look at the bugs in all the other areas
I fail to see how coding an unbiased RNG would be complicated. The only way it would be complicated if there is bias involved. Whether the bias is based on desirability, age of champ or if the user already has the champ is anyone's guess.
Brilliant
Your result is chosen literally as soon as you tap the crystal on the oodium , or it begins slowing down. I’ve tested this when I had two accounts in the same alliance, the “an alliance member has pulled a 3* whatever” message came up on general when I tapped the crystal. what you saw was a glitch with the reel which doesn’t mean anything. You were going to get cyclops as soon as you tapped your crystal or let it spin out.
but id pull alot of champs i already have and duped them or get some other new champion.
and i just think i am cursed. i really do want the champs i want to be in 5* arena tho.
You have great luck, all of forum and reddit has heard about it over and over again. It’s a little insulting to many players when you say your account is “cursed”.
Yeah I put it down to a visual glitch.. A very cruel and frustrating visual glitch lol (nothing else I could put it down to I had the 5* Cyclops and that was that)... That's insightful.. I've often seen posts where players have claimed the champ is predetermined but never given the info on how they came to the conclusion.. So thanks for that mate.. Makes sense..