The Truth About 5* Drop Rates

This is not just another complaining thread I am hoping to shed light on why YOU SHOULD expect to pull a trashcan, and not just any trashcan, an original trashcan.

Wondering why you keep getting horrible champs?
Wondering why you keep getting old champs?
Maybe these simple probability calculations below will help you out.

The truth about 5* drop rates is that more than likely there is a higher chance to get trashcan old champs so do not be surprised when one does.

Practical example:

I have opened a total of 7 champions in the pool of at least 84 champions (may have counted wrong). 4 of these pulls were featureds but disregard this info for simplicity sake but this is mentioned to acknowledge that if anything this is an underestimate....

All 7 of the pulls were from the original 12 champions (and no not any of the non-transcans such as magik or SL)

So there was always at most a 12/84 chance during these 7 pulls (remember 4 pulls were featureds, and the last 3 were done when there were a total of 86 champs in the basic pool).

Ok so lets use the underestimated value of 12/84 chance to pull an original champ (less if u take out magik or SL for example of a commonly accepted good original champ)

Ok so pulling from the 12 original pool, 7 times in a row is a 1 in a million chance.... Thats right 1 IN A MILLION!

The odds of not pulling a single original pool 5* champ in ALL SEVEN PULLS is approx 34% compare that to 0.0001% chance (1 in a million)

So a 1 in a million chance in the assumption of a "fair" RNG is next to being stastically impossible to be apart of the actual population.

Just thought I should let people know how "fair" kabam's RNG is (some people might understand what "fair" means in stats, unbiased rolls). Also, do not be surprised when you keep pulling that juggs or rhino.

I will now go play the lottery.

Disclaimer: This post was written to amuse those who believed their accounts were hexed by the hood's sp2.

Comments

vinniegainz

I know it's a lot to digest but I felt it was time to do a write-up like this, because there are tin-foilers that believe that there are unequal odds to pull a trashcan vs. a good champ.

And remember such a small sample size cannot truly reflect the population with much validity so take it lightly.

GroundedWisdom

Lmao! You had me ready to dispute up until the last paragraph. It's true. The sheer number of Champs people consider trash versus the number of viable Champs they want makes it statistically probable to pull a Champ they don't want. Then they claim bias.

RedRooster

vinniegainz wrote: »

Ok so pulling from the 12 original pool, 7 times in a row is a 1 in a million chance.... Thats right 1 IN A MILLION!

The odds of not pulling a single original pool 5* champ in ALL SEVEN PULLS is approx 34% compare that to 0.0001% chance (1 in a million)

So a 1 in a million chance in the assumption of a "fair" RNG is next to being stastically impossible to be apart of the actual population.
I will now go play the lottery.

That's not 1 in a 1,000,000. That's 1 in 10,000.

Both of which are way better odds than the typical lottery.

Although I'm quite sure that the "value" of pulling a "god-tier" 5 star champ is inarguably lower than winning the lottery.

vinniegainz

RedRooster wrote: »

vinniegainz wrote: »

Ok so pulling from the 12 original pool, 7 times in a row is a 1 in a million chance.... Thats right 1 IN A MILLION!

The odds of not pulling a single original pool 5* champ in ALL SEVEN PULLS is approx 34% compare that to 0.0001% chance (1 in a million)

So a 1 in a million chance in the assumption of a "fair" RNG is next to being stastically impossible to be apart of the actual population.
I will now go play the lottery.

That's not 1 in a 1,000,000. That's 1 in 10,000.

Both of which are way better odds than the typical lottery.

Although I'm quite sure that the "value" of pulling a "god-tier" 5 star champ is inarguably lower than winning the lottery.

You sure? Its approx a 14% chance ^ 7 (pulls)

1% means 1 in 100
0.1% means 1 in 1000
0.01% means 1 in 10000
0.001% means 1 in 100000
0.0001% means 1 in 1mill (what we are dealing with)

GroundedWisdom

For me, the mathematics are much more simple than that. If you have a pool of 80 and you consider 8 useful and the rest ****, you have a 90% chance of pulling ****. Lol.

vinniegainz

Lol I just pop 4*s and 5*s because I do not even bother convincing myself the reel means anything (we know it doesn't, yet we still like to imagine it does) and I stopped caring what I got once I had a few awesome champs to beat content very easily.

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GroundedWisdom

vinniegainz wrote: »

Lol I just pop 4*s and 5*s because I do not even bother convincing myself the reel means anything (we know it doesn't, yet we still like to imagine it does) and I stopped caring what I got once I had a few awesome champs to beat content very easily.

Yeah for me I just let it go where it wants. I don't invest too much energy into judging my Roster. It all adds up to something. Still trying to Dup my Quake, but I'll take whatever comes.
4*s are a little different. It's mostly Dups now. I finally just pulled a SW from PHC. Almost fell over. Second 4* from PHC today. I'm currently making an appointment with the Proctologist to look for a horseshoe.

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GroundedWisdom

Forgot to mention, the first 4* I rolled from PHC today was a Quake Dup. XD
Forgive me, if you get as many plain rolls as I do, you get a little happy on the rare occasions things go well.

RedRooster

vinniegainz wrote: »

1% means 1 in 100
0.1% means 1 in 1000
0.01% means 1 in 10000
0.001% means 1 in 100000
0.0001% means 1 in 1mill (what we are dealing with)

Lol... yup you're right, I'm a dunce.

I'm still mulling over the 0/13 from Blade featured pulls, which I figured to be 5.5% chance of happening (given 20% drop rate.)

Rixob

My last 7 pulls are original characters in the game.

Storm
BPCW
Winter Soldier
KK
Agent Venom
Ronan
Spider Gwen

I dont think its a coincidence either.

Out of the 26 5* that i have, my newest character is Iceman and Rogue

BitterSteel

Rixob wrote: »

My last 7 pulls are original characters in the game.

Storm
BPCW
Winter Soldier
KK
Agent Venom
Ronan
Spider Gwen

I dont think its a coincidence either.

Out of the 26 5* that i have, my newest character is Iceman and Rogue

Of those; only storm, winter soldier and Ronan were originally in the game. The rest were added later on.

(Don’t quote me on spidergwen I can’t quite remember if she was there at the start but I’m pretty sure she wasn’t)

Stewman

SG def was not one of the original 18 or 24 (or whatever it was)

BitterSteel

Stewman wrote: »

SG def was not one of the original 18 or 24 (or whatever it was)

Yeah I think she was an early addition after the game launched

BrutalMira

I think kabam should make a thread for a 5* champion that will ask all player vote who we dont want to pull in a 5* champion and the result they will removed that champion in a 5* especialy this champions

Antman
SpiderGwen
Groot
Khamala khan

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vinniegainz

INTEGRAL wrote: »

I got 5 Ironman from my last 15 crystals

Ya a lot of alliance members always pull the same champ its quite funny... And not just within the same level crystal but across levels.

For example a month ago my alliance member was the dude that showed the team of 2*-6* RR on reddit it was pretty funny to see him get 5* rocket and 6* rocket so close together.

New_Noob168

I agree. I find it’s a lot easier to get older champs from the basic 5* than the newer ones that were just added.

I wish someone could audit what their randomness claims really are

vinniegainz

New_Noob168 wrote: »

I agree. I find it’s a lot easier to get older champs from the basic 5* than the newer ones that were just added.

I wish someone could audit what their randomness claims really are

The issue with that is probably the legalities of the patents attached to the codes they've written.

But I will say this, I am curious to see how they do add the new champions to the RNG because I have a decent understanding of some of the ways the RNGs are coded, so would be interesting to see how they write the new champs in. I won't pretend to know the exact type of coding kabam uses though, never really cared that much because it is just a game I play for fun anyways. However, I do know it is difficult (for me at least) to create code for an unbiased RNG after adding new champs (I would imagine I personally would have to rewrite the entire code).

vinniegainz

Lol @ the noobs flagging. Why dont you chime in and have some fun instead of improperly flagging something?

New_Noob168

vinniegainz wrote: »

New_Noob168 wrote: »

I agree. I find it’s a lot easier to get older champs from the basic 5* than the newer ones that were just added.

I wish someone could audit what their randomness claims really are

The issue with that is probably the legalities of the patents attached to the codes they've written.

But I will say this, I am curious to see how they do add the new champions to the RNG because I have a decent understanding of some of the ways the RNGs are coded, so would be interesting to see how they write the new champs in. I won't pretend to know the exact type of coding kabam uses though, never really cared that much because it is just a game I play for fun anyways. However, I do know it is difficult (for me at least) to create code for an unbiased RNG after adding new champs (I would imagine I personally would have to rewrite the entire code).

From a randomness standpoint. Isn’t it just a matter of knowing the number of available champs and dividing by that

But I agree. And knowing Kabam coders I have a feeling older champs drop more frequently. After all look at the bugs in all the other areas

RedRooster

vinniegainz wrote: »

New_Noob168 wrote: »

I agree. I find it’s a lot easier to get older champs from the basic 5* than the newer ones that were just added.

I wish someone could audit what their randomness claims really are

The issue with that is probably the legalities of the patents attached to the codes they've written.

But I will say this, I am curious to see how they do add the new champions to the RNG because I have a decent understanding of some of the ways the RNGs are coded, so would be interesting to see how they write the new champs in. I won't pretend to know the exact type of coding kabam uses though, never really cared that much because it is just a game I play for fun anyways. However, I do know it is difficult (for me at least) to create code for an unbiased RNG after adding new champs (I would imagine I personally would have to rewrite the entire code).

I fail to see how coding an unbiased RNG would be complicated. The only way it would be complicated if there is bias involved. Whether the bias is based on desirability, age of champ or if the user already has the champ is anyone's guess.

Blax4ever

@vinniegainz

Brilliant

DarkDrakeius

It's true though. Kabam put that BS "100% chance of getting a 5*" as the drop rate info in the 5* crystal to create a sort of loophole since they're obligated to put drop rates now. They know damn well that the original champions, especially the worse of the bunch are much more likely to be obtained from the crystal. They've even stated themselves that they have a personal tier-list. Gee, I wonder what they do with that personal tier-list of theirs.

IOSJasoN

I'm not one for conspiracies but.. I know my last 5* should have been Medusa.. I've opened a fair few 5* crystals never have I had one roll backwards.. Until last night that is.. I tapped the screen.. it started slowing I see Medusa coming up I think it's either going to land on her or just roll one past her.. it immediately slows and does a quarter roll on to her.. I'm thinking wow Medusa that's a great pull.. Then it instantly moves backwards and 5* Cyclops XS pops up.. I know exactly what I saw as I pay close attention when opening 5* crystals it had already began the roll onto her then jumped backwards..

BitterSteel

IOSJasoN wrote: »

I'm not one for conspiracies but.. I know my last 5* should have been Medusa.. I've opened a fair few 5* crystals never have I had one roll backwards.. Until last night that is.. I tapped the screen.. it started slowing I see Medusa coming up I think it's either going to land on her or just roll one past her.. it immediately slows and does a quarter roll on to her.. I'm thinking wow Medusa that's a great pull.. Then it instantly moves backwards and 5* Cyclops XS pops up.. I know exactly what I saw as I pay close attention when opening 5* crystals it had already began the roll onto her then jumped backwards..

Your result is chosen literally as soon as you tap the crystal on the oodium , or it begins slowing down. I’ve tested this when I had two accounts in the same alliance, the “an alliance member has pulled a 3* whatever” message came up on general when I tapped the crystal. what you saw was a glitch with the reel which doesn’t mean anything. You were going to get cyclops as soon as you tapped your crystal or let it spin out.

ContestOfNoobs

for some reason i cant seem to pull iceman or gr
but id pull alot of champs i already have and duped them or get some other new champion.

and i just think i am cursed. i really do want the champs i want to be in 5* arena tho.

LocoMotives

ContestOfNoobs wrote: »

for some reason i cant seem to pull iceman or gr
but id pull alot of champs i already have and duped them or get some other new champion.

and i just think i am cursed. i really do want the champs i want to be in 5* arena tho.

You have great luck, all of forum and reddit has heard about it over and over again. It’s a little insulting to many players when you say your account is “cursed”.

IOSJasoN

@BitterSteel
Yeah I put it down to a visual glitch.. A very cruel and frustrating visual glitch lol (nothing else I could put it down to I had the 5* Cyclops and that was that)... That's insightful.. I've often seen posts where players have claimed the champ is predetermined but never given the info on how they came to the conclusion.. So thanks for that mate.. Makes sense..