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Actual Crystal Odds
Zuko_ILC
Member Posts: 1,546 ★★★★★
For those wondering what your actual chance per dollar to get 1 featured champ I did a little Math for everyone.
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It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.
The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.
For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.
Not really. It's far worse than the OP suggests. To get over a 90% probability of pulling feature 5* you would have to buy 600 crystals which (by the OPs math) would be $9600.
Roll a die. You have a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6. Roll it again. Same chance to roll a 6. No matter how many times you roll it, it's still a 1 in 6 chance.
Thank you for this. If only everyone could be required to calculate the odds correctly before they (1) purchased a FGMC and (2) made a forums post about it.
Dr. Zola
#fakenews
#timenotwellspent
Prove it show us a graph
You're not the brightest bulb are you? He just showed you the math. No need for a graph
Make a graph, I just did a simple spreadsheet showing if all odds were the same the unit costs to $ amount. I didn't include probability it was just for fun. To show that in Kabams mind if probability was removed a champ should cost $2419. It was really just to show people how ridiculously over priced crystals are in a simple form. It's okay to be angry at the world. We forgive you.
Helpful. And math can be fun.
Dr. Zola
Yabut, probability =/= percentage.
It does not increase the drop rate if you buy 1 crystal or 1000 crystals. The percentage of drop is still the same.
Edit: you have a higher probability of hitting the low percentage drop with more "rolls".
When we introduce probability then the outcome can actually be 1 out of 100,000,000 as it is per crystal and that probability can happen even as unlikely as it is. My simple chart shows that if probability is removed and you have a 0.4% chance it would cost you $2419 just for 1 champ. Again its just a simple exercise so people can see what the costs could be.
No idea what this proves but I'm bored at work so here you go:
It proves your math is wrong
35% of households have cats so this chart is clearly wrong, unless 7% of people prefer TP all over the bathroom floor.
Sorry OP, but I am gonna shut this down now.