Actual Crystal Odds

Zuko_ILC

For those wondering what your actual chance per dollar to get 1 featured champ I did a little Math for everyone.

Comments

Shrimkins

Sorry but your math is all wrong

GroundedWisdom

Animejay70

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

Raganator

Yeah. No.

Shrimkins

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Mitchell35

Although it illustrates the point well.

Shrimkins

Mitchell35 wrote: »

Although it illustrates the point well.

Not really. It's far worse than the OP suggests. To get over a 90% probability of pulling feature 5* you would have to buy 600 crystals which (by the OPs math) would be $9600.

ZzyzxGuy

OMG... Are people still convinced percentages are cumulative?

Roll a die. You have a 1 in 6 chance to roll a 6. Roll it again. Same chance to roll a 6. No matter how many times you roll it, it's still a 1 in 6 chance.

DrZola

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Thank you for this. If only everyone could be required to calculate the odds correctly before they (1) purchased a FGMC and (2) made a forums post about it.

Dr. Zola

Demonzfyre

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

For those wondering what your actual chance per dollar to get 1 featured champ I did a little Math for everyone.

#fakenews
#timenotwellspent

Zuko_ILC

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Prove it show us a graph

Appleisgod

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Prove it show us a graph

You're not the brightest bulb are you? He just showed you the math. No need for a graph

Zuko_ILC

Appleisgod wrote: »

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Prove it show us a graph

You're not the brightest bulb are you? He just showed you the math. No need for a graph

Make a graph, I just did a simple spreadsheet showing if all odds were the same the unit costs to $ amount. I didn't include probability it was just for fun. To show that in Kabams mind if probability was removed a champ should cost $2419. It was really just to show people how ridiculously over priced crystals are in a simple form. It's okay to be angry at the world. We forgive you.

DrZola

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

Helpful. And math can be fun.

Dr. Zola

ZzyzxGuy

DrZola wrote: »

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

Helpful. And math can be fun.

Dr. Zola

Yabut, probability =/= percentage.

It does not increase the drop rate if you buy 1 crystal or 1000 crystals. The percentage of drop is still the same.

Edit: you have a higher probability of hitting the low percentage drop with more "rolls".

Zuko_ILC

DrZola wrote: »

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

Helpful. And math can be fun.

Dr. Zola

When we introduce probability then the outcome can actually be 1 out of 100,000,000 as it is per crystal and that probability can happen even as unlikely as it is. My simple chart shows that if probability is removed and you have a 0.4% chance it would cost you $2419 just for 1 champ. Again its just a simple exercise so people can see what the costs could be.

Shrimkins

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Prove it show us a graph

No idea what this proves but I'm bored at work so here you go:

Zuko_ILC

Shrimkins wrote: »

Zuko_ILC wrote: »

Shrimkins wrote: »

Animejay70 wrote: »

Each crystal is its own chance. it's not dependent on any other crystal. So multiplying is meaningless.

It is possible to calculate probability of recurring events but the OP just did it wrong.

The correct way would be to take the chance to NOT pull a feature 5* (0.996) and then take that to the power of however many crystals you buy and subtract that from 1.

For instance: if I bought 250 crystals it would be 1-(0.996^250) = 0.633 or a 63.3% chance that I would pull at least 1 5* feature.

Prove it show us a graph

No idea what this proves but I'm bored at work so here you go:

It proves your math is wrong

John757

@Kabam Miike @Kabam Wolf @Kabam Vydious @Kabam Lyra can someone take this down. It’s completely incorrect information and will confuse people that don’t have a knowledge of probability

DarthPhal

35% of households have cats so this chart is clearly wrong, unless 7% of people prefer TP all over the bathroom floor.

Kabam Miike

Yeah, this is kind of misleading. Your "odds" don't change. The Odds are clearly stated in game, and probability isn't always easy to understand. You can get the featured Champion from 1 crystal, or you could not get them from 10.

Sorry OP, but I am gonna shut this down now.