On the 180th day of Thronebreaker my Daily Crystal Gave to Me

March 30th marked 180 days of Thronebreaker Daily Crystals existing (at least according to Excel). Ten days after I started opening TB daily crystals I decided to start tracking them regularly. Although I remembered the previous crystals I decided not to record them from memory and start collecting data from that point. So actually, I have 170 days of daily crystals.

I don't, however, have 170 crystals because of how daily crystals work. For those that aren't aware, daily crystals are not awarded daily, instead there's a 24 hour timer that starts when you claim the current one. If you don't claim exactly when it becomes available the 24 hour timer starts later and later, and eventually you go to sleep before the next one appears and have to open it in the morning. So unless you're very diligent or set alarms, you won't actually get one crystal every day. I am not setting an alarm for a daily crystal.

So I actually have 147 daily crystal openings out of 170 days, which is about an 86% collection rate. I clearly suck at this. But for those interested, here's my accumulated data for those 147 crystals:

I have not yet pulled the 6* shard jackpot, but I believe I have pulled all the other possibilities at least once. How much rewards is this in total, if I add up all the catalysts and fragments and such?

That's the actual totals over the past 170 days, and what my average haul would be for 30 days (about a month) if I actually opened 30 crystals every month by setting alarms and reminders like a crazy person.

Overall, it is not a bad bunch of stuff. About seven T4B and five T4CC a month for free. The two T2A per month is also pretty good. 6% of a T5CC is also pretty good for free given how much you get from things like EQ, although that reward is sufficiently rare that there's not enough data to know what the long term average is. Ditto 5* shards and units, and of course 6* shards.

I would say I'm pretty confident that the true average amount of stuff that drops from the daily TB is pretty close to my numbers for T4B, T4CC, and T2A. I think T5B is in the ballpark. I wouldn't assume the true rewards for the other stuff is necessarily close to my current calculated rates yet.

I would say that if you aren't Thronebreaker yet, missing out on these rewards is not the end of the world. But if you can achieve TB without excessive pain and cost, these rewards are one good incentive to push for it. These rewards are high enough to be progressionally significant for most Thronebreaker players (they are relevant to the kinds of rank ups TB players are likely to be doing) and they drop at relatively "nice" ratios comparable to the rate at which they are used. For example, the T2A to T5B ratio is about 3.4 to 1. That's in the ballpark of the actual ratio those two get used at for 6* rank ups, and lean slightly towards T2A which tends to be the stronger bottleneck for TB players.

So far, I think the Daily Crystal strikes a reasonable balance between the rewards being too good for a free crystal and too much of an incentive to push for Thronebreaker before a player is ready to get there, and too weak to be meaningful or interesting for players of that level of progress. I find I like opening them, but I don't feel bad when I miss one. I think that's just about where a free daily crystal should land in terms of value. YMMV.

Comments

Crcrcrc

You also haven't pulled a 5* champ in addition to the jackpot it seems

Squirrelguy

I always meant to ask on forums what the actual number of units you could get were. I was kinda hoping for more than 40 but I’d take that for free any day.

DNA3000

You also haven't pulled a 5* champ in addition to the jackpot it seems

At this point I'm pretty sure those champs are in the wheel just to taunt me. I know the wheel doesn't actually matter to the rng drop, and I even have a pretty good idea why it ends up being 90% 5* champs and 10% everything else, but honestly I think it would make more sense to make the drop a 5* basic crystal instead of a 5* champ just to make the spinner more sane.

ItsDamien

You also haven't pulled a 5* champ in addition to the jackpot it seems
At this point I'm pretty sure those champs are in the wheel just to taunt me. I know the wheel doesn't actually matter to the rng drop, and I even have a pretty good idea why it ends up being 90% 5* champs and 10% everything else, but honestly I think it would make more sense to make the drop a 5* basic crystal instead of a 5* champ just to make the spinner more sane.

I pulled 5* Prox from mine yesterday. All I've had is T4B/C in some fashion for the most part.

DNA3000

You also haven't pulled a 5* champ in addition to the jackpot it seems
At this point I'm pretty sure those champs are in the wheel just to taunt me. I know the wheel doesn't actually matter to the rng drop, and I even have a pretty good idea why it ends up being 90% 5* champs and 10% everything else, but honestly I think it would make more sense to make the drop a 5* basic crystal instead of a 5* champ just to make the spinner more sane.

I pulled 5* Prox from mine yesterday. All I've had is T4B/C in some fashion for the most part.

Congratz, although ironically I suspect that although the 5* champion drop is (apparently) a very rare drop, it is probably less valuable to most Thronebreakers than the rank up catalysts. If I had to pick between a fully formed T2A and a 5* basic crystal I would take the T2A every time. I would probably even pick the 18k T2A fragment reward over a random 5* champ. I'm not even sure I would take the 5* basic over one T4B.

I *would* take 10k 5* shards, but that's in part because I can trade them for 6* shards in the sigil store, and in part because I can use them to target new champs in featured crystals. But a random 5* champ from the basic pool (which I assume the TB contains) is less valuable to me these days.

DrZola

That’s useful. I think I’m not dissimilar over a little less than 80 days (I’ve been tracking missed days and using them to calculate my monthly projected averages), although my weight leans heavier towards T5b than T2a and I haven’t seen any of the rarest drops (T5c, 6*, units).

Here’s my current take on expected monthly haul based on ~2.5 months of recorded pulls:

Obviously, you can’t get a fraction of the 5K 5* shards, so the final item just represents 5K 5* shards pulled twice over the period.

Not bad. Is it worth ranking a “bad” champ to R3? I still think not, especially with the flow of 6* shards now. But it does help with rankups.

Dr. Zola

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DNA3000

@DNA3000 I became TB yesterday and I will keep data too to see the odds.

One question, do you open crystal each day 1 by 1 or you do open in batch ?

I tend to open them every day and record the opening at the time. Opening in batches has issues when it comes to things like multiple crystals opening similar things and having the reward screen combine them, which I try to avoid whenever I collect crystal data for anything I want to see individual drop odds.

Sometimes I collect them but then forget to open them (because I only open when I can immediately record the result) and then I have two or three of them, but I always spin them out individually.

It is all in an Excel sheet I can just switch to in my phone and enter the result into, and the sheet then automatically calculates summaries and totals so I can see running values.

DNA3000

That’s useful. I think I’m not dissimilar over a little less than 80 days (I’ve been tracking missed days and using them to calculate my monthly projected averages), although my weight leans heavier towards T5b than T2a and I haven’t seen any of the rarest drops (T5c, 6*, units).

Given your numbers include missed days, it looks like your numbers are in reasonably close agreement to mine, except for T5B. Let me guess, in 80 days you got two fully formed T5B?

IKON

I'll trade you my 2 5* for those t5cc pulls.

Also, really illustrates how incredibly valuable being TB is, these daily crystals giving 13.5K t5cc, 10 T2A and 3 T5B, just for claiming 147 crystals, not to mention all the other stuff.

DNA3000

I'll trade you my 2 5* for those t5cc pulls.

Also, really illustrates how incredibly valuable being TB is, these daily crystals giving 13.5K t5cc, 10 T2A and 3 T5B, just for claiming 147 crystals, not to mention all the other stuff.

I think the best way to look at these rewards is to compare them to what Cavalier and TB players are already getting from the game to see how much of an extra boost this is. For example, if you're doing all the monthly content you're getting about 20% of a T5CC per month, depending? An extra 6% per month is significant, but not extraordinary. And this does not include the Glory store, which is going to get better come April 10.

In terms of what you can get total, the TBDs are, very roughly, like TB players have half a side quest more than Cavalier players. I wouldn't call that incredible value, but I can see that other players might. I would call that significant value.

Colinwhitworth69

My first month of TB has been really good for T5b. Pulled two full and five 10 percenters. I know this is above average RNG, so not expecting the next month to be so kind.

DrZola

That’s useful. I think I’m not dissimilar over a little less than 80 days (I’ve been tracking missed days and using them to calculate my monthly projected averages), although my weight leans heavier towards T5b than T2a and I haven’t seen any of the rarest drops (T5c, 6*, units).
Given your numbers include missed days, it looks like your numbers are in reasonably close agreement to mine, except for T5B. Let me guess, in 80 days you got two fully formed T5B?

Bingo. Today was also my first full T2a—I went weeks with a single 9K T2a pull before I started getting 9K about once every 10 tries.

My gut tells me the 6* shards are probably a half percent or less chance and T5c shards are a similar likelihood, maybe a slight bit more. Percent chance for things like 5* shards and units are likely low single digits (if that). Happy to share all my data if that is useful—I record daily as well and keep it in Excel, although I have not kept a chronological tally of pulls.

These are my percentages by item:

Dr. Zola

DNA3000

That’s useful. I think I’m not dissimilar over a little less than 80 days (I’ve been tracking missed days and using them to calculate my monthly projected averages), although my weight leans heavier towards T5b than T2a and I haven’t seen any of the rarest drops (T5c, 6*, units).
Given your numbers include missed days, it looks like your numbers are in reasonably close agreement to mine, except for T5B. Let me guess, in 80 days you got two fully formed T5B?
Bingo. Today was also my first full T2a—I went weeks with a single 9K T2a pull before I started getting 9K about once every 10 tries.

Dr. Zola

That's the uncertainty in those rewards showing. Because I got one and you got two the averages will be radically different, but of course I can't get one and a half. Until we collect enough data that a difference of one or two pulls doesn't change the average much, we won't know what the true average is.

That's something I think most people who try to figure out the average return on random crystals (and doesn't have a statistics background) doesn't always appreciate. It isn't the number of crystals that matters. What matters is how many you expect to get. If you open a hundred crystals and you expect to pull 30, the odds are good that you're within maybe five or ten percent of the actual drop odds. But if you open two hundred crystals and you pull two, you could be off by a hundred percent because a single drop radically changes the measured rate.

DrZola

That’s useful. I think I’m not dissimilar over a little less than 80 days (I’ve been tracking missed days and using them to calculate my monthly projected averages), although my weight leans heavier towards T5b than T2a and I haven’t seen any of the rarest drops (T5c, 6*, units).
Given your numbers include missed days, it looks like your numbers are in reasonably close agreement to mine, except for T5B. Let me guess, in 80 days you got two fully formed T5B?
Bingo. Today was also my first full T2a—I went weeks with a single 9K T2a pull before I started getting 9K about once every 10 tries.

Dr. Zola
That's the uncertainty in those rewards showing. Because I got one and you got two the averages will be radically different, but of course I can't get one and a half. Until we collect enough data that a difference of one or two pulls doesn't change the average much, we won't know what the true average is.

That's something I think most people who try to figure out the average return on random crystals (and doesn't have a statistics background) doesn't always appreciate. It isn't the number of crystals that matters. What matters is how many you expect to get. If you open a hundred crystals and you expect to pull 30, the odds are good that you're within maybe five or ten percent of the actual drop odds. But if you open two hundred crystals and you pull two, you could be off by a hundred percent because a single drop radically changes the measured rate.

Correct. The only thing I am sure of is that (a) 6* shards are super duper rare and (b) half a T4b/T4c is very very common. I’m only directionally able to get at quantification today for those and other pulls.

Dr. Zola

DrZola

Beginning to think I’m on the 5* track with my dailies. This is today’s drop.

Third time in less than 2 months. Has to be a “rare drop,” but I’d love one of the other rare drops instead. Or just convert the 5* shards to a smaller number of 6* shards (~125? 250?) since this will invariably become a dupe or convert to 6* shards in the Sigil store.

Dr. Zola

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DrZola

I find TB daily rewards to be more game changing for my mini account. I get all my t4cc/t4b requirements from there plus t2a and t5b are always welcome.

I took unduped Venom to r3 to get to TB and it was totally worth it as I was underestimating Venom, he is a beast.

He is as he should be. Just a terrific cosmic that gets missed a little among all the great cosmics.

Dr. Zola