Is it possible to go 0/10 on featured 5*?

Find out tomorrow folks, when I open my TENTH (10th) featured 5* crystal!! Will I get blade, or will I quit playing the game all together? Only time will tell on the next episode of Dragon Ball Z!!!

Will post results tomorrow.

Comments

Voluntaris

yes, have an alliance mate that went 0/24

Viper1987

I’ve heard of 0/14 and 0/18.

Draco2199

Yes

Renegade_Doggy

Ally is 0/20

dkatryl

If you understand how statistics work, then you know the answer is:

Yes, it is very possible.

What is the % chance of getting the featured 5*? We don't know, but commonly assumed about 1%.
The chance that you will not pull a featured after 10 tries at 1% is : 0.90438207500880449001, or 90.4%

So, not only is it very possible, it is very likely!

MarzGroove

Of course

Chitlins

dkatryl wrote: »

If you understand how statistics work, then you know the answer is:

Yes, it is very possible.

What is the % chance of getting the featured 5*? We don't know, but commonly assumed about 1%.
The chance that you will not pull a featured after 10 tries at 1% is : 0.90438207500880449001, or 90.4%

So, not only is it very possible, it is very likely!

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%

LoPresti

Chitlins wrote: »

dkatryl wrote: »

If you understand how statistics work, then you know the answer is:

Yes, it is very possible.

What is the % chance of getting the featured 5*? We don't know, but commonly assumed about 1%.
The chance that you will not pull a featured after 10 tries at 1% is : 0.90438207500880449001, or 90.4%

So, not only is it very possible, it is very likely!

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%

Yet, no one knows for sure. So I'm not sure why this random number is being thrown around and people just accepting the fact that it is 20%.

Chitlins

LoPresti wrote: »

Chitlins wrote: »

dkatryl wrote: »

If you understand how statistics work, then you know the answer is:

Yes, it is very possible.

What is the % chance of getting the featured 5*? We don't know, but commonly assumed about 1%.
The chance that you will not pull a featured after 10 tries at 1% is : 0.90438207500880449001, or 90.4%

So, not only is it very possible, it is very likely!

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%

Yet, no one knows for sure. So I'm not sure why this random number is being thrown around and people just accepting the fact that it is 20%.

There's enough video evidence of openings to gather a pretty decent sample size. If you look at multiple Youtubers who have posted every 5* featured opening and add up the openings you can calculate the probability.

Fluffy

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%[/quote]

That's funny. If there were only 5 potential champs the odds would be 20% (1/5). There are more champs than that.

Sungj

LoPresti wrote: »

Yet, no one knows for sure. So I'm not sure why this random number is being thrown around and people just accepting the fact that it is 20%.

A modder a while back opened hundreds of featured 5* crystals and since that is the largest single piece of data the community has accepted the result of 22% featured champs vs regular champs, the community round it down to 20% for the sake of simplicity

Sungj

Fluffy wrote: »

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%

That's funny. If there were only 5 potential champs the odds would be 20% (1/5). There are more champs than that.[/quote]

That's not how probability works it doesn't matter how many champs are in there the odds of a featured will always be the same. Don't look at it as individual champions but rather as 3 pools of champions, 20% for featured, 78% for the basic and 2% for the subfeatured

AegonT

Fluffy wrote: »

IT's commonly assumed as being 20%

That's funny. If there were only 5 potential champs the odds would be 20% (1/5). There are more champs than that.[/quote]

But that's not how the crystals work. Your odds for a feature are set, they don't change each time they add a champ in there

dkatryl

Assuming a 20% chance at featured, the chances of not getting a featured after 10 tries does drop down to: 0.1073741824, or 10.7% chance, which is definitely much better odds.

However, the chance on this actual pull to not get a feature would still remain 80%.

(20% sounds more likely. I was stuck thinking of pulling a 4* from a PHC, which seems like 1%)

Badrose

Of course it's possibile, just like it was possible for me to find 3 Juggernaut in a row! Random they said... Gimme a break!

SpiritOfVengeance

Same I got juggs 3 times in a row after saving for each one and lost it my friend was there to witness my suffering.

SlyCat42

The chances of pulling featured are always something like 1 in 5 (20% or so) chance. Not sure on the exact numbers, but there have been people who ran the calculations.

So, yes it's possible to hit the non featured 80% chance multiple times. I am currently 1 out of 3 on featureds myself. Planning on trying for 1 more in November!

LeNoirFaineant

I'm 0-12. Probably be 0-14 after I go for Blade. Know people who pull them consistently at 50% or better. One would think regression to the mean would balance out the luck but it seems like the lucky keep getting lucky and the unlucky keep getting screwed. Almost as if the drop rate is not the same for every account. Maybe it is and I'm just jaded from **** pulls lol.

danielmath

dkatryl wrote: »

Assuming a 20% chance at featured, the chances of not getting a featured after 10 tries does drop down to: 0.1073741824, or 10.7% chance, which is definitely much better odds.

However, the chance on this actual pull to not get a feature would still remain 80%.

(20% sounds more likely. I was stuck thinking of pulling a 4* from a PHC, which seems like 1%)

This is correct, chances of being 0/10 is 10.7%. Certainly nothing unreasonable

unknown

This content has been removed.

DrZola

LeNoirFaineant wrote: »

I'm 0-12. Probably be 0-14 after I go for Blade. Know people who pull them consistently at 50% or better. One would think regression to the mean would balance out the luck but it seems like the lucky keep getting lucky and the unlucky keep getting screwed. Almost as if the drop rate is not the same for every account. Maybe it is and I'm just jaded from **** pulls lol.

Careful...it’s sacrilege to suggest we might not all have the same odds.

Dr. Zola

xNig

My ally went 6/9 for Mephisto collectively. It’s really rng

Lovingkid

dkatryl wrote: »

If you understand how statistics work, then you know the answer is:

Yes, it is very possible.

What is the % chance of getting the featured 5*? We don't know, but commonly assumed about 1%.
The chance that you will not pull a featured after 10 tries at 1% is : 0.90438207500880449001, or 90.4%

So, not only is it very possible, it is very likely!

It is wrong,we are not talking about premium crydtal here but a featured one and many top tier champions have confirmed after their countless crystal opening that featured chance is flat 25%.

Lovingkid

That also means that ur 0/10 is due to 75% ,which is methmatically very possible.

danielmath

LeNoirFaineant wrote: »

I'm 0-12. Probably be 0-14 after I go for Blade. Know people who pull them consistently at 50% or better. One would think regression to the mean would balance out the luck but it seems like the lucky keep getting lucky and the unlucky keep getting screwed. Almost as if the drop rate is not the same for every account. Maybe it is and I'm just jaded from **** pulls lol.

Regression to the mean would happen if you open a lot of crystals, not 10 or 20.

TheObiJuan

I’m 3/34. I had a very long old spell from getting Voodoo and GwenPool, my first two features to then missing dozens in a row. The real question is why we keep throwing shards away and trying.

Then they drag out Blade...

xNig

TheObiJuan wrote: »

I’m 3/34. I had a very long old spell from getting Voodoo and GwenPool, my first two features to then missing dozens in a row. The real question is why we keep throwing shards away and trying.

Then they drag out Blade...

Cause hope is a very scary thing

DalBot

I'm 0-12 here. About to be 0-13 tomorrow I'm sure

Meanwhile I have an ally mate who is 6/8. RNG though of course...

ContestOfNoobs

DalBot wrote: »

I'm 0-12 here. About to be 0-13 tomorrow I'm sure

Meanwhile I have an ally mate who is 6/8. RNG though of course...

get slap dude

BasicChamp

Ah, so depressing reading this thread. I'm about to 0/4 tomorrow. Anyway, no guts, no glory!