**Mastery Loadouts**
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Comments
I understand why it's hard to believe that Guillotine won. Anecdotally most people I know, alliance members, content creators, etc, were voting for Ant-Man. Ant-Man won the forum poll by a pretty large margin. Yes there were more champs to choose from the first round. 37% of the vote went to champs other than Ant-Man and Guillotine. Only having Ant-Man and Guillotine to choose from, that 30% of those people would vote for Guillotine over Ant-Man is improbable with a sample size total as large as 9,536.
Of course it wasn't another forum poll that decided the winner between Ant-Man and Guillotine, it was votes cast by hitting milestones in an arena. The people willing to do that grind and the people that voted in the forums will certainly vary, but it's reasonable that results would still be similar. One issue with the interface for voting was that *Guillotine was selected by default*! So I imagine there were people (and potentially bots) grinding that arena that didn't care who won and left the vote option as is, so the arena was slanted in Guillotine's favor. There should have been no default choice, or a third choice of "don't care" so that it was fairer.
*this is a joke ik it was probably close
Hoping Guilly gets maybe like an Angela level buff (at least)
2. I don't see how you can argue that it is unlikely that most of the 3740 people who did not vote for either of the top choices would vote for the second option over the first due to "sample size." The poll explicitly tells you that those people had a different first choice than the top two options. It tells you nothing about the relative preferences between them. If the poll sampled a million people instead of ten thousand people, that larger sample size still wouldn't tell you anything about the relative preferences of the people who did not vote for either top choice. I'm not sure why you would think that, but that's not how polls or humans work.
3. It is not remotely reasonable to assume that the arena driven votes would mirror the forum poll. First of all, both forum readers and arena grinders are non-representative samples of the playerbase as a whole. The odds of them happening to have the same preferences is therefore low. Second, the arena choice wasn't the same choice as the forum poll, because the number of options was lower. So even if the arena grinders just happened to have identical preferences to the forum voters, that would *still* not tell you anything about how the run off would work out.
If this was an election and we had, say, one Republican running against five Democrats, the Republican could end with a higher vote total than any of their competition, and yet still be the obvious underdog in a run off, due to the presumption that the majority of the Democratic voters would coalesce around the remaining Democratic candidate. In this case, there isn't the same obvious partitioning of voters, but there *could* be, so that possibility cannot be dismissed. It is only reasonable to talk about the likelihood of the votes swinging in a particular direction when you have a reasonable basis to assume that all statistically analyzed options are independent and equally likely. In this case, there's an unquantified possibility for vote options to be correlated (most of the voters of one losing option migrating to one of the two run off candidates), so you cannot make a valid statistical statement about how votes might shift in this case.
Lastly, if this was an actual election the fact that there was a default choice would invalidate the election. But in this case, the effect of the default choice seems unlikely to be significant because there was little reason to run that particular arena except to vote. All of the other arenas contained better rewards at the time it was running, so it is unlikely that more than a few people entered and ran that arena without any actual preference over which champion to vote for.
A bot, meanwhile, would not have been programmed to collect the rewards that triggered the voting in the first place, unless the bot was specifically programmed with the intent to vote.
Hmm, my 5* Joe is happy.
The good thing is that they said they won’t change the winner’s animations. Now we can get a Giant-Man animation with an eventual AM rework. That’s kinda cool! I like Guilly’s sword chop animations