5 Star Featured Odds
Gambl0r
Member Posts: 214 ★★
I saved up 30k 5 star shards and going for a double Blade featured crystal opening
Anyone have a proven grasp on the odds of catching him?
I heard a couple months back, people were predicting around 20%, but after watching numerous youtube videos on 5 star featured crystal openings as of late, I'm thinking maybe Kabam reduced the rate. Just saw a video of a guy opening 7 5-star ice-man featured crystals and got nothing but the crappiest base heroes in the game
Any one got any past openings that actually caught the featured?
Anyone have a proven grasp on the odds of catching him?
I heard a couple months back, people were predicting around 20%, but after watching numerous youtube videos on 5 star featured crystal openings as of late, I'm thinking maybe Kabam reduced the rate. Just saw a video of a guy opening 7 5-star ice-man featured crystals and got nothing but the crappiest base heroes in the game
Any one got any past openings that actually caught the featured?
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Comments
Went for Yondu and got SL and Strom
It is extremely unlikely this is true for a couple of reasons. First of all, the way MMOs are implemented in software there is almost always a huge Chinese wall between the parts of the software that handle purchases and the parts that run the more routine gameplay. Data tends to go one-way from the purchasing systems into the gameplay components that keep track of what you have. At the moment you spin a crystal your game client is connected to some server module up in their server cloud running the RNG to generate the result. It is unlikely that module has a way to look up who you are and check your purchasing record. There are huge security issues with this sort of thing.
Second of all, it would be illogical to do this and keep it a secret. If you are trying to encourage players to spend money the only way encouragement works is if the player knows what behavior is being encouraged. If you tell players that crystal results are better if you spend money, you can encourage them to spend. But if you keep it a secret, only players who suspect this is true might be encouraged. That seems counter-productive.
And third, if they wanted to do this there is an easy way to do it that they wouldn't have to keep secret and it is the way this is sometimes done in other games. They could simply sell better crystals. The only way to open a 5* featured is by accumulating 5* fragments, which all of us do in more or less the same ways, and the crystal we buy is basically the same (random) crystal. They could simply sell "special" 5* featured crystals for money and reward the big spenders that way. Those crystals could have better odds without tampering with the spinning algorithms, because they would literally be different crystals.
It isn't *impossible* that Kabam does this, but it is worth noting that pretty much every MMO that has lockbox-like random rewards is accused of being rigged, and none of them have been shown to be rigged (as far as I'm aware). If they all were rigged, you couldn't keep that kind of industry practice a secret for long. And if they aren't all rigged, you'd have to explain why even the ones that aren't rigged generate the same amount of suspicion from the players as the ones you suspect are rigged.
Atleast u got gwenpool man and drax isn't that bad either. Though those other ones are...very depressing.
I saved up shards for 9 months, and have had little interest in playing lately. And you can be sure I Really am uninterested in playing anymore. The amount of time and effort it takes to save up 135k 5* shards, to then not get the champ. Is an absolute motivation breaker.
That sucks dude. I had 5 tries saved up. I wasted 4 on trying for blade. Then wasted my other shards today trying to dupe my stark spidey. I really think the odds of getting the feature have been drastically reduced. I watched all the youtubers today try and fail. Its sad all those extra shards we could just be opening regular 10k crystals
The odds of going one out of twenty if the crystal has a 20% chance of pulling featured is 17.35 to one. It isn't likely, but it isn't astronomically unlikely either. In an alliance with thirty members, there's decent odds that two separate players could have this happen to them.
Probability is very hard to intuitively grasp, so lets try a simple thought experiment. Let's say one thousand players start opening crystals, and lets see what intuition says ought to happen. Everyone opens one crystal. If the odds are 20%, then we'd expect about (not exactly, but about) 200 of those players to pull featured, and 800 to miss. Now let's open another. Among the 200 lucky winners, we'd expect about 80% of them, or 160 players, to miss, and 40 of them to get two in a row. Among the 800 that missed the first time, we expect about 640 to miss again and 160 to pull the featured. So after two rounds we have 40 players that have two featureds, 320 players that have one featured, and 640 to have no featureds. After three pulls, this becomes 8 with three, 96 with two, 384 with one, and 512 with zero.
After three pulls, more than half of all the players still have yet to pull one. Perhaps more amazing, eight players have three featureds in a row. Notice quite a few have exactly one - 384 players. After four pulls, 20% of the ones with zero will finally pull one, which is about 104 players. 80% of the 384 that have one will fail to pull another, or about 307. So about 411 players still only have one. About 410 have zero. After five pulls that number drops to 329 + 82 = 411. Curiously the same number as before. 328 have zero. Then after six pulls it becomes 395. Notice how slowly this number is dropping. That's because there are still a lot of players that have yet to pull one, and 20% of them are going to pull one the next pull. Six rolls in and almost 40% still have exactly one. That's probably a lot more than you might guess would be true, but this is basic arithmetic calculating the results, not even real probability.
By the time we get to twenty rolls, the number is going to be around 57 or so. A small fraction of the original 1000 players, but still one in 17.
Five pulls in a row is very unlikely: one in 3125. But the question is how many players have pulled at least five featured crystals? If that number is, say 1% of all players, then that number is at least 15,000 people, I think. That means statistically speaking five people at least could have had that run (it could be more, because of the people who have pulled at least 5, many have pulled more than five and had more shots at the run). If they posted widely about this streak of luck, it is possible quite a few people have been in a position to have heard of a player that did this.
If the crystal openings are genuinely random (or pseudo-random enough) then it isn't true you would expect to see one out of five every time. That's actually not random. Every possible result, appropriately weighted, should happen about as often as statistics suggests. That means Hit Hit Hit has to happen sometimes (one out of 125 openings, approximately). Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Miss Hit has to happen, and according to the numbers it should happen once out of every 347 openings. But there are nineteen more ways to end up one out of twenty: the "Hit" can occur in any one of the twenty openings in that sequence. So the actual odds of this happening are twenty out of 347. Or about one out of 17. Not easy to do, but it is harder to roll a twenty on a twenty sided dice.
Please tell me the GP is a typo lmfao. Awesome pull.
There's probably a lot of players that pulled five crystals in April that would have loved that result.
My 5 star roster is now Ant-Man, Magneto, Loki, Colossus, Awakened Iron Patriot, and Civil Warrior
Put in so much blood sweat and tears, and kabam secretly nerfs the 5 star feature odds too, and increases the chances of getting useless base heroes, for 'diversity'
I will never ever open a featured crystal again, I'll just wait the 6 months until they're added to the normal 10k crystal