Vision Offer [Merged Threads]

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  • MattManMattMan Posts: 426 ★★★
    Seems Kabam has a leak problem
  • TyphoonTyphoon Posts: 436 ★★★
    fake news
  • LBN1LBN1 Posts: 30
    These offers by Kabam are a joke! Way to alienate many players...
  • RenaxqqRenaxqq Posts: 596 ★★★
    I grinded only for him but now nothing. Hopefully 4th July deals are going to be good😅
  • ChiliDogChiliDog Posts: 81
    It was 1500 for 5* og Vision and a small tech rank up. It was like 10000 for a 6*. I only am getting a 6000 offer for both a 5 and 6*. I only want the 5*.
  • RenaxqqRenaxqq Posts: 596 ★★★
    @Kabam Miike so no more separate 5* Vision offers?
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,235 ★★★★★
    I always wonder what the expectation is when people say these Offers are terrible. A 6* version of a Champ that comes out once or twice a year is not going to be 100 Units.
  • ChiliDogChiliDog Posts: 81
    I had saved for 1000 offer, 4000 offer and him...this is very disappointing. I've not worked on content saving the units for this.
  • LordPSNLordPSN Posts: 514 ★★★
    Well looks like Uncollected players will not get a good deal on July 4!
  • winterthurwinterthur Posts: 6,021 ★★★★★

    This is for Uncollected

    We should expect terrible deals come july 4th.

    Can you help to post the IG message?
  • winterthurwinterthur Posts: 6,021 ★★★★★
    edited June 30

    Wondering if anyone actually bought this deal?

    Currently, 50% chance of getting it. Problem is, it will push the 5-Star sig higher.
    What is the reasonable units cost to get a class AG (no selector)?

  • ChiliDogChiliDog Posts: 81
    Oh wow 3000 instead of 1500 just for unduped. Wouldn't buy it now. What a scam. July 4 better be a step up or I have no reason to purchase even the $5 monthly unit deals. I used those to put me over the top on these...ftp sounds better anyway.
  • Cinemayzer417Cinemayzer417 Posts: 2
    Well that sucks... I had hoped I could get the five star by itself. I have a lot of champs that can boost him up good but I guess I’m going to have to pass. That 6k Bundle is way overpriced and I had saved up units to get a 5 star.

    Hopefully they give us another chance on 4th of July, but I’m not sure if they would. Vision only comes once a year.
  • DNA3000DNA3000 Posts: 13,181 Guardian
    Greekhit said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Greekhit said:

    A good offer would have been 5* Vision for 1200 units and 6* Vision for 3000 units.

    That would be ridiculously good for a 6* Vision, which is to say, almost broken. It would specifically be wildly out of sync with the rest of the game. The current game economy values 6* champions somewhere around 5-6k units. A *targeted* 6* unit offer for 3k units would be practically giving it away.
    I’m not really sure the current game economy values a 6* around 5-6k units, at least for TB level players.
    There's a couple ways to bracket around the effective value of 6* champs in terms of unit cost, which is what the Vision offer is valued in (values are different when it comes to spending cash). One way to look at it is to ask how much units you would need to spend on average to get a 6* champ from the crystals you can buy with units. There's two options there: the standard Cav which costs TBs 175 units, and the featured Cavs which costs everyone 300 units.

    The featured Cav has a 4.5% chance to drop a 6* champ, which means on average you'll get a 6* champ every 6667 units spent. But the Cav has slightly better return than that, because it also has a 24% chance to drop a 5* champ. If we assume every 5* drop generates 275 6* shards (from dups) then the actual unit cost per 6* champ drops to 5814 units per 6* champ. In the best case scenario of every 5* drop generating a max sig crystal and that crystal dropping shards, the effective unit cost per 6* champion becomes 5155 units per 6* champ.

    The standard Cav does better because of the TB discount. Here we get a 3% chance for 6* champ and 16% chance for 5* champ which equates to 5087 units per 6* champ assuming 275 shards per 5* drop, or 4510 units per 6* champ in the extreme case of every 5* champ ultimately generating 550 6* shards. Between the two crystals we have a range of 4500 to 5800 units per 6* champ, with the vast majority of players ending up mostly between 5k and 6k (even the 5800 unit number requires every drop to be a dup).

    There's one other direct unit offer place to check: the Cav completion bundle. You can get that bundle for 2975 units. It includes, among other things, 5k 6* shards, 15k 5* shards, and 5 Cavalier crystals. If we just look at the 6* value contained in those crystals and shards, we get an average cost of about 4171 units per 6* champ. This offer is "fuzzier" for two reasons: first it contains other stuff which is difficult to factor out of the cost, and conversely it is a much more limited offer (you can only get it once per month).

    Generally we expect bundles of stuff to be offered at significant discount to its components, and we expect limited quantity offers to have more value than infinitely repeatable ones. So I think the Cavalier crystals are closer to the intrinsic value of 6* crystals in terms of the in-game unit economy, and the Cav bundle is a significant discounted offer relative to that.

    One more place to cross check the thinking. If 6* champs were valued somewhere around 5k-6k in units, we'd expect them to cost a little less than that in terms of cash. Cash is worth more than (an equivalent amount of) units, and cash generally buys more than an equivalent amount of units (because you can acquire units without spending). The daily $5 (USD) special is buying (among other things) a Cavalier crystal. It used to be a regular Cav, which would be an effective value of about 3378 units per 6* champion (converted from cash). With featured Cavs in there, it is closer to 2435 units per 6* champion (this by the way includes the 100 6* shards in there). And as these are limited offers (one per day) they probably represent higher value than the intrinsic value for cash. So cash seems to be valuing 6* champions somewhere in the vicinity of an equivalent of 3k-4k units (slightly higher than the daily specials). Even if we were to attempt to reduce that by the value of the stuff outside the crystal the value would still likely be approximately in that vicinity (depending on how you valued that stuff). So that seems to be a reasonable place for a daily cash offer to land, if 6* champions were valued at something like 5-6k of units.

    It is also worth noting that if we do these calculations for the Cavalier crystals before their odds were updated we get numbers closer to 15000 units per 6* champ. So it is likely that such a dramatic change in crystal odds represents an actual lowering of the relative value of 6* champs to units, and not something that happened without specific targets in mind. So those numbers likely represent some actual real (explicit or implicit) valuation target for 6* champs.
  • GroundedWisdomGroundedWisdom Posts: 28,235 ★★★★★
    Greekhit said:

    DNA3000 said:

    Greekhit said:

    A good offer would have been 5* Vision for 1200 units and 6* Vision for 3000 units.

    That would be ridiculously good for a 6* Vision, which is to say, almost broken. It would specifically be wildly out of sync with the rest of the game. The current game economy values 6* champions somewhere around 5-6k units. A *targeted* 6* unit offer for 3k units would be practically giving it away.
    I’m not really sure the current game economy values a 6* around 5-6k units, at least for TB level players.
    I would personally not buy a regular 6* for even 3k units to be honest. Maybe I would buy a Nexus for that price, but then maybe, especially with the 4th July unit offers round the corner.
    That being said I think 3k for a 6* Vision, few days before 4th July offers, is more than reasonable if you want a huge margin of players to actually drop that units and drain them out.
    That would be smart business. Now, they just made most players to keep their units.
    Let’s hope 4th July offers aren’t so bad, because this time players will keep their money 🤣

    As long as I can remember, people have been undervaluing Offers based on how they personally feel Items are worth. Which is entirely subjective. I can go into Wal-Mart and determine if their merchandise feels worth the price they're asking. However, the in-game value is something different. Quite plainly, that value is set by Kabam. Although it's not some arbitrary number they set. It has to do with rarity, the current in-game value, the demographic they're targeting, a number of factors. Simply put, we all have an idea of what we think it SHOULD cost. That's rarely realistic.
    If memory serves, the last time a 6* Vision was offered, it was 15k Units. Correct me if I'm wrong.
  • BadroseBadrose Posts: 746 ★★★
    Vision is good, I like it a lot but not that great. Vision also needs to be duped and a lot of stones or it's totally useless so the value here is way more than 12k. And why in the hell do you put the 5* version in the same offer? You think it gives more value? Sorry Kabam, you are out of mind...
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