I blame @Karatemike415, a) because it is Spider Gwen and b) because I blame him for everything anyway. Also I saw his opening and I'm pretty sure he stole all my featured drops.
Wouldn't mind any of the featureds, and Korg, Elsa, and Jubliee would be new pulls, but I'm specifically hunting for Omega this round. The moment I pull her, I will probably start saving for the next one. Already there are only seven new champs and 6 possible awakenings in this crystal for me, which is already a low amount. The instant I pull OS, only 50% of the crystal will contain new pulls or first time awakenings. I wouldn't mind getting Hulkling, Jubilee, Korg, and Elsa, but not enough to continue pulling into this crystal.
Marvel Trucos usually puts out a 6-Star Feature image but is on a 'break' so I figured I continue it.
Hopefully you guys have better starting luck than me...
No 'new' feature champs for me but Mephisto and Korg were awakened & more sigs on NC/Jubilee/Corvus... Hoping for some better luck with AW Season rewards next week 🤞🏼
I opened 15 - I was fortunate enough to get and awaken Hulkling from his preview package so I didn't need him from this.
Havok x2 (New and Awakening) Howard x2 (New and Awakening) Guardian (New) Black Cat (New) Wong (New) Rintrah (New) Thing (New) Korg x2 (+40) Nightcrawler (+20) Dormamu (+20) MODOK (+20) Drax (+20)
Not horrible at all, but I would have absolutely loved an Omega Sentinel or Scorpion but I'm actually thrilled for the Guardian and Wong.
One and done for me, was looking for Omega sentinel but I’m hyped on Hulkling, let’s see how good he is!
Onto saving for Valkyrie in 98 days time now, see you then
Decided to R3 him for fun and for battlegrounds defence/Peni counter. I haven’t used him at all really. I’ve got the basic playstyle down, use sp1 to speed up buff gain, use sp2 while unblockable for big fury. Is there anything else to his playstyle? Small tips you can give if you know how to use him?
The fact that Kabam can claim that all champs have equal drop rate and get away with it is an absolute joke. Tell that to the 4 Nightcrawlers I pulled but only 1 featured champ out of 17 crystals. Another guy in my alliance also pulled 1 feature champ out of 11 crystals but 4 Modoks.
The fact that Kabam can claim that all champs have equal drop rate and get away with it is an absolute joke. Tell that to the 4 Nightcrawlers I pulled but only 1 featured champ out of 17 crystals. Another guy in my alliance also pulled 1 feature champ out of 11 crystals but 4 Modoks.
All of this is really not as unlikely as you think. I know it sucks, and I feel for you, but this is well within what is possible statistically.
I blame @Karatemike415, a) because it is Spider Gwen and b) because I blame him for everything anyway. Also I saw his opening and I'm pretty sure he stole all my featured drops.
Wouldn't mind any of the featureds, and Korg, Elsa, and Jubliee would be new pulls, but I'm specifically hunting for Omega this round. The moment I pull her, I will probably start saving for the next one. Already there are only seven new champs and 6 possible awakenings in this crystal for me, which is already a low amount. The instant I pull OS, only 50% of the crystal will contain new pulls or first time awakenings. I wouldn't mind getting Hulkling, Jubilee, Korg, and Elsa, but not enough to continue pulling into this crystal.
I took the lazy way out and pulled OS from one of her featured Cavs. That leaves a few I might want (Thing dupe, Scorpion, maybe Black Cat) from this featured, but probably not enough to try more than a couple.
And I agree @Karatemike415 should take the blame. In fact, I’m going to start blaming him for all of my bad pulls.
The fact that Kabam can claim that all champs have equal drop rate and get away with it is an absolute joke. Tell that to the 4 Nightcrawlers I pulled but only 1 featured champ out of 17 crystals. Another guy in my alliance also pulled 1 feature champ out of 11 crystals but 4 Modoks.
I pulled three Spider Gwens. So are you saying the crystal is rigged to drop some champions more than others and every player is rigged towards different champs? What possible reason could Kabam have for doing that?
Or are you saying that the crystal is rigged away from featured champs? Because I've seen openings with a higher percentage of featureds than average. Last featured I pulled one featured out of nine openings. That's below average. The featured before that I pulled seven out of 23, which is above average. This crystal I have pulled two featureds out of ten openings, which is above average. Across all three combined that''s ten out of 42, which is basically the predicted statistical average (one out of four).
If you think the crystals are rigged, and that's the only explanation for your results, then you have to assume that all these other openings are not rigged, and thus Kabam rigs your crystals because they don't like you, but doesn't rig everyone else's crystals because they like everyone else more than you.
That, or it is just random chance. Random chance will generate some lucky players and some unlucky ones. It will generate some openings with more featureds than average and some with less. And it will generate a lot of duplicates, because while it seems counter-intuitive that random chance would generate a lot of dups, the odds against every single opening just happening to never dup a previous one is low, and gets increasingly lower with more openings.
The odds of pulling four Nightcrawlers out of 17 crystals is 242 to one. That's not astronomically low. Moreover, the odds of pulling four of any champ out of 17 openings is much higher: closer to ten to one against. That's not ridiculously bad odds.
Let's try an experiment. Let's just have a computer program open seventeen crystals randomly, and note how many of each drop we get. We will assume 24 possibilities equally likely, and we'll record the maximum number of duplicate drops out of each set of 17 drops.
For those that speak Python:
Clearly, no rigging going on in there. What do we get out of 100,000 runs, sort of the equivalent of 100,000 players all trying this simultaneously?
So out of 100,000 runs, only 36 has a max of 1. This means in this experiment, only 36 out of 100,000 players got all unique drops with no duplicates. In other words, this is extremely rare. Four of the same champ? That happens 9687 times out of 100,000. Basically, about ten percent of the time. This is a relatively common occurrence. In fact, three of the same champ happens almost half the time. You are in fact three times more likely to draw six of the same champ as you are to draw all seventeen differently with no dups.
Probability is often counter-intuitive, unless you work with it rigorously and continuously. Even I wasn't sure which was more likely, six of one or all different, before I ran the program.
The fact that Kabam can claim that all champs have equal drop rate and get away with it is an absolute joke. Tell that to the 4 Nightcrawlers I pulled but only 1 featured champ out of 17 crystals. Another guy in my alliance also pulled 1 feature champ out of 11 crystals but 4 Modoks.
Bad days happen with RNG. I didn’t have a great one myself - there are 8 champs in this crystal that are top targets for me. There are 6 that I don’t want to pull (already duped/don’t benefit from sig/not going to rank them anyway). 10 in the middle.
Today I opened 9, pulled 1 from my top 8 group, 2 from bottom 6, and 6 from my middle 10. So, probably 1-2 below what my likelihood of pulling from my top 8 should have been on average, and probably 1 above what I would expect to pulled on average from my bottom tier. So, now just hoping the 7 or so I’ll be pulling every two weeks from now on have better results and provide some statistical balance. But, they may not, and that’s just the way the game works. I had better than average luck on the Kitty/Knull/Hyperion crystal and hardly opened any of the last one, so probably due for some bad featured luck.
I will say I’m happy the 1 I did pull from my top tier was my top overall target champ (OS) so even though I didn’t have a stastically average or above average day, I’m still overall fine. She does a lot more for my roster than the other 7 in my top target group.
Comments
Duped Dormammu, Yay
710,000 shards, 47 Featured Crystals…
ONE OPENING!!
Decided to open 2 even though I knew it was a bad idea 🤦♂️
Dr. Zola
1. Scorpion (new)
2. Spider Gwen (sigs)
3. Black Cat (new)
4. Thing (awaken)
5. Drax (new)
6. Black Panther (sigs)
7. Havok (awaken)
8. Spider Gwen (sigs)
9. Spider Gwen (sigs)
10. Proxima Midnight (awaken)
I blame @Karatemike415, a) because it is Spider Gwen and b) because I blame him for everything anyway. Also I saw his opening and I'm pretty sure he stole all my featured drops.
Wouldn't mind any of the featureds, and Korg, Elsa, and Jubliee would be new pulls, but I'm specifically hunting for Omega this round. The moment I pull her, I will probably start saving for the next one. Already there are only seven new champs and 6 possible awakenings in this crystal for me, which is already a low amount. The instant I pull OS, only 50% of the crystal will contain new pulls or first time awakenings. I wouldn't mind getting Hulkling, Jubilee, Korg, and Elsa, but not enough to continue pulling into this crystal.
Hopefully you guys have better starting luck than me...
No 'new' feature champs for me but Mephisto and Korg were awakened & more sigs on NC/Jubilee/Corvus... Hoping for some better luck with AW Season rewards next week 🤞🏼
Havok x2 (New and Awakening)
Howard x2 (New and Awakening)
Guardian (New)
Black Cat (New)
Wong (New)
Rintrah (New)
Thing (New)
Korg x2 (+40)
Nightcrawler (+20)
Dormamu (+20)
MODOK (+20)
Drax (+20)
Not horrible at all, but I would have absolutely loved an Omega Sentinel or Scorpion but I'm actually thrilled for the Guardian and Wong.
Decided to R3 him for fun and for battlegrounds defence/Peni counter. I haven’t used him at all really. I’ve got the basic playstyle down, use sp1 to speed up buff gain, use sp2 while unblockable for big fury. Is there anything else to his playstyle? Small tips you can give if you know how to use him?
He seems a lot of fun!
Kinda hoping Juggernaut's buff pulls some elements from Rintrah's kit and ramps them up to 11.
And I agree @Karatemike415 should take the blame. In fact, I’m going to start blaming him for all of my bad pulls.
Dr. Zola
Or are you saying that the crystal is rigged away from featured champs? Because I've seen openings with a higher percentage of featureds than average. Last featured I pulled one featured out of nine openings. That's below average. The featured before that I pulled seven out of 23, which is above average. This crystal I have pulled two featureds out of ten openings, which is above average. Across all three combined that''s ten out of 42, which is basically the predicted statistical average (one out of four).
If you think the crystals are rigged, and that's the only explanation for your results, then you have to assume that all these other openings are not rigged, and thus Kabam rigs your crystals because they don't like you, but doesn't rig everyone else's crystals because they like everyone else more than you.
That, or it is just random chance. Random chance will generate some lucky players and some unlucky ones. It will generate some openings with more featureds than average and some with less. And it will generate a lot of duplicates, because while it seems counter-intuitive that random chance would generate a lot of dups, the odds against every single opening just happening to never dup a previous one is low, and gets increasingly lower with more openings.
The odds of pulling four Nightcrawlers out of 17 crystals is 242 to one. That's not astronomically low. Moreover, the odds of pulling four of any champ out of 17 openings is much higher: closer to ten to one against. That's not ridiculously bad odds.
Let's try an experiment. Let's just have a computer program open seventeen crystals randomly, and note how many of each drop we get. We will assume 24 possibilities equally likely, and we'll record the maximum number of duplicate drops out of each set of 17 drops.
For those that speak Python:
Clearly, no rigging going on in there. What do we get out of 100,000 runs, sort of the equivalent of 100,000 players all trying this simultaneously?
So out of 100,000 runs, only 36 has a max of 1. This means in this experiment, only 36 out of 100,000 players got all unique drops with no duplicates. In other words, this is extremely rare. Four of the same champ? That happens 9687 times out of 100,000. Basically, about ten percent of the time. This is a relatively common occurrence. In fact, three of the same champ happens almost half the time. You are in fact three times more likely to draw six of the same champ as you are to draw all seventeen differently with no dups.
Probability is often counter-intuitive, unless you work with it rigorously and continuously. Even I wasn't sure which was more likely, six of one or all different, before I ran the program.
Today I opened 9, pulled 1 from my top 8 group, 2 from bottom 6, and 6 from my middle 10. So, probably 1-2 below what my likelihood of pulling from my top 8 should have been on average, and probably 1 above what I would expect to pulled on average from my bottom tier. So, now just hoping the 7 or so I’ll be pulling every two weeks from now on have better results and provide some statistical balance. But, they may not, and that’s just the way the game works. I had better than average luck on the Kitty/Knull/Hyperion crystal and hardly opened any of the last one, so probably due for some bad featured luck.
I will say I’m happy the 1 I did pull from my top tier was my top overall target champ (OS) so even though I didn’t have a stastically average or above average day, I’m still overall fine. She does a lot more for my roster than the other 7 in my top target group.