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Due to issues related to the release of Mastery Loadouts, the "free swap" period will be extended.
The new end date will be May 1st.
Champions’ probability in crystal pools intentionally different?
Kaalen
Posts: 8 ★
Here’s an information I wanted to have. Recently in my alliance’s chat we entered a discussion in which a friend said Kabam has already stated each champion has a different chance of appearing when opening a crystal. I tried looking for this statement, but couldn’t find it. So I was hoping maybe someone can point me to it.
I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.
But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?
I always thought Kabam said every champion has the same probability (say there are 200 champions in the game, so each one has a 0.5% chance of appearing), even though in my experience that is clearly not the case.
It’s pretty obvious to me Kabam classifies champions in tiers, and those at the lowest tier appear much more often when opening crystals.
But, is that public knowledge then? And I was the one thinking “in theory” I could get any champion equally?
5
Comments
Every Champion has the same chance of dropping from a crystal unless otherwise stated (Eg. the Pym Envy Crystal that is currently available has an increased chance at Yellowjacket).
If you read my question you’ll see I wanted to know if it was an open thing. I didn’t ask whether it was a thing or not.
It’s quite easy to notice really. I have pulled more Starlords than all 6 of the current featured champions in the pool combined. How is that an even probability chance?
Before that? I got Jubilee half a dozen times, zero times OS, Hulkling, Scorpion, Rintrah, Black Cat.
Every crystal that shows up is the same story. For me, and a ton of people I talk with.
Trust me, I am not making this up (I wish I were actually). Simple data.
But some guy up there is right, I shouldn’t have come here, since there is nothing I stand to gain from this. I’m out
There's no real conspiracy with crystals giving lesser valued champions over any of your wanted champions.
Literally a percentage to pull any champion in the pool is equal in value.
That and a whole lot of negativity bias is the only "evidence"
/S but the point stands
cf: https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/323385/gatcha-math-and-the-featured-6-crystal-not-a-cry-for-help-probably
As to how someone could pull more Starlords than all the other featureds combined, that's random chance. My six lowest quantity pulls were Rocket (0), Thor (1), Mr. Negative (1), SW (1), Valkyrie (1), and Man-Thing, which I collectively pulled five times. There were two champs I pulled more than that: Quicksilver (6) and Titania (6). Such distributions are normal for random pulls.
I pulled featured champs 22 times out of 69 pulls, which is 32% of my pulls. That's actually significantly higher than random chance would predict (25%) but not so high so as to be unusually high.
It should be noted that had I gotten just two or three of every champ in the crystal in an even way, that would be very strong evidence that the crystal was rigged to do so and not random. Such an even distribution happening by random chance is extremely unlikely.
Whenever someone claims to have evidence of problems with the random distribution of the crystals, they either refer vaguely to "you know, everyone sees it" or a relatively tiny amount of data. When you look at hundreds to thousands of crystals, and you also properly calculate what the random distributions will generally look like, those biases tend to disappear.
Notably, and I do enjoy pointing this out, when the cinematic crystal came out, someone posted on the forums that the pulls people were posting in that thread *proved* the crystal was biased. However, not only would it not do so - because a forum thread is not a statistically unbiased sampling - but what I find more important is that this person *saw* bias in the thread, when a careful counting of the posts showed no such bias. Proving that people only see what they want to see, even when all it takes is just counting posts to prove what they see is a complete illusion in their own minds. No complex statistical math, just counting.
It has passed into the collective tin foil hat collective unconscious, along with the reliable method to get 4* champs from PHCs and various things having to do with patents.