7* drop rates

ViuhViuh Member Posts: 7 ★
in General Discussion
Are these accurate? I’ve opened over 160 paragon crystals with 0 7*’s, less than 8 6*’s. I have 150,000 points in our alliance event. I know it’s a roll of the dice but I’m questioning the accuracy of the displayed drop rates.

Comments

  • LiquidkoldLiquidkold Member Posts: 200 ★★
    I had to open 165 before I got 1 Seven Star. Unfortunately, that is RNG. We have bad luck.
  • ViuhViuh Member Posts: 7 ★
    Buttehrs said:

    I mean it literally says 1%. That's about as low as you can get.

    Yeah so out of 100 you’d typically expect 1. It’s not guaranteed because it’s 1% for each specific drop. But 0/160 seems a little far-fetched.
  • MigginslyMigginsly Member Posts: 57 ★
    That’s not how odds works. You’re opening 1 at a time with a 1% chance
  • BeastDadBeastDad Member Posts: 1,894 ★★★★★
    Viuh said:

    Buttehrs said:

    I mean it literally says 1%. That's about as low as you can get.

    But 0/160 seems a little far-fetched.
    It sure does.
  • JeancrbJeancrb Member Posts: 227 ★★
    I opened a bit more than 30 and I didn't get a single 6 stars or 7 stars. While an alliance mate got 2 7 stars and numerous 6 stars opening the same amount :neutral:
  • ViuhViuh Member Posts: 7 ★
    Migginsly said:

    That’s not how odds works. You’re opening 1 at a time with a 1% chance

    That’s why I said it’s 1% chance for each specific drop. I know it’s not guaranteed, I’m just saying that after 160 it’s pretty crazy people aren’t getting them.
  • bm3eppsbm3epps Member Posts: 1,157 ★★★
    🧐some folks said they spent thousands and didn't even get one 7*
  • ViuhViuh Member Posts: 7 ★
    bm3epps said:

    🧐some folks said they spent thousands and didn't even get one 7*

    I guess that makes me feel a little better but that’s ridiculous
  • SummonerNRSummonerNR Member, Guardian Posts: 12,795 Guardian
    Viuh said:

    Migginsly said:

    That’s not how odds works. You’re opening 1 at a time with a 1% chance

    That’s why I said it’s 1% chance for each specific drop. I know it’s not guaranteed, I’m just saying that after 160 it’s pretty crazy people aren’t getting them.
    Let's for a moment just imagine that “by grouping” *IS* indeed how odds work.
    And that opening a set of 100, which should (in this alternate world) yield just 1 hit. (note, you haven’t yet reached another 2nd set of 100, you’ve only done 160 total).

    Now you’re saying, that it is inconceivable that particular SINGLE hit could have gone the other way instead. That single hit that you would expect as a 7* instead goes as a lower champ instead.

    Is it that farfetched ? To imagine that you are only talking about just ONE 7* potential that ended up NOT being a 7*.

    Come back after several more hundreds, and then if you still haven’t pulled a 7*, then you'd have a claim to call it crazy. (still not impossible, but much more unlikely of no 7*)
  • Chris_118Chris_118 Member Posts: 28 ★
    Some quick maths… given its 99% chance to get something other than a 7 star, the probability of not getting a 7 star 160 times in a row is 0.99^160 which is roughly equal to 20%. So while you are unlucky you won’t be the only one
  • NearJrNearJr Member Posts: 158 ★★
    Who would've thought that RNG is random
  • IvarTheBonelessIvarTheBoneless Member Posts: 1,276 ★★★★
    Just to weigh in on your only 8 6 stars, I got 3 6 stars in my only 8 crystals openened. So it's all RNG.
  • IKONIKON Member Posts: 1,356 ★★★★★
    Odds of at least one 7* in 160 pulls is 80%, meaning you land in the 20% category, which isn't that unlikely. Feel free to calculate below.

    https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-calculator/

  • Crow9074Crow9074 Member Posts: 87 ★
    After awhile they eventually buffed the 6* drop rate for cavaliers. They may do the same with these... in a couple years. I rarely do cavaliers because they aren't worth the units. Maybe pop 1 (excluding the monthly event) every couple of months. Once I get Paragon I'll probably avoid these ones also... unless they're obtained for free.
  • JollyHawkJollyHawk Member Posts: 611 ★★★
    Crow9074 said:

    After awhile they eventually buffed the 6* drop rate for cavaliers. They may do the same with these... in a couple years. I rarely do cavaliers because they aren't worth the units. Maybe pop 1 (excluding the monthly event) every couple of months. Once I get Paragon I'll probably avoid these ones also... unless they're obtained for free.

    At least with this crystal you're definitely getting a decent amount of iso.

    Might pop them when I'm low on iso.
  • noclutchnoclutch Member Posts: 186 ★★
    Well I wont call it a roll of dice.
    Roll of dice can be calculated based of its orientation and physics of a throw.

    The crystal drop rate is computer generated based on some equation/algorithm that they have set up.
    Its not likely to reflect the displayed odds of the info screen,
    however on every opening, the values will come closer to the displayed rates.
  • o_oo_o Member Posts: 835 ★★★★
    IKON said:

    Odds of at least one 7* in 160 pulls is 80%, meaning you land in the 20% category, which isn't that unlikely. Feel free to calculate below.

    https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-calculator/

    ⬆️ A lot of wacky maths in this thread but this is the correct way to calculate the odds of getting a 7* champ from a given number of paragon crystals
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