Titan Crystal Luck

I know crystals are random and there's no conspiracy. This is just a rant about (very) bad statistical luck.

I've opened 5 titans over the past month or so. A Hit Monkey, and then 4 dupes of Hit Monkey.

Kinda sucks

Comments

ahmynuts

Be grateful you ducked rhulk and falcon

Mofugger

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864865#Comment_2864865

There's always a silver lining, thanks for helping me find the one here lol.

Joker1976

nah,..after the hit monkey dupe any champ in the titan is better then 3 more dupes on him.

BringPopcorn

I see Drax on that crystal screenshot, didn't know he was in the Titan

Mofugger

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864896#Comment_2864896

I just spent about 70 seconds looking. Then I gave up.

I'll bite…where's Drax?

Furrymoosen

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864907#Comment_2864907

He's right there, standing perfectly still.

Searmenis

At 10 dupes, you get the 6* version for free.

Mofugger

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864913#Comment_2864913

dammit…lol

BringPopcorn

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864917#Comment_2864917

Mofugger

Ok now I'm a little pissed.

@DNA3000 you're the stats expert. Where are the chances of 6 hit monkeys in 6 Titan crystals

Anotherconcernplayer

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866520#Comment_2866520

My condolences, that ia painful. There is only 15 days until the change maybe best to hold back until then.

Wishing all the best of luck with your next Titan opening

OldManHop

Meanwhile, I can't seem to get one Hit Monkey. Such is life.

HungaryHippo

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866520#Comment_2866520

Not going to tell you anything useful. If the vast majority of people think these crystals are weighted against the top prizes, they probably are.

Sean0333

Why don't you just hold your titans until the pools changes? hit monkey is leaving in a few weeks

DNA3000

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866520#Comment_2866520

Extremely low. One in 34,012,224. However, the odds of six in a row of any champ is one in 1,889,568, and that's usually the more relevant odds in this situations.

It is still extremely unlikely: I would expect only a few players of the game will ever see this happen, but it isn't impossible. It is just incredibly unlikely it would be any one particular person.

I should point out here a bit of technicality that some people fall into. Not to deflect from the very unlikely odds of this happening, but some people jump to the conclusion that if the odds are, say, one in two million, it would then take twelve million crystals to see this on average - two million times six crystals. That's not how this works, because say you pull a champ and the five of a different champ in a row. That's not six in a row, but one more crystal could complete the streak. The odds of any six in a row out of a long string of crystals is not Odds x Streak length. Its a bit more complicated than that.

Mofugger

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866602#Comment_2866602

That's what I had mathed (18/18 x 1/18 [five times]). But I always feel like you present a nuance to those numbers that I wasn't considering in my monkey rage.

This is colossally bad luck, not a conspiracy. A previous comment mentioned weighting against top tier. I imagine even if that were true the likelihood of six monkeys in a row is low.

I'm not opposed to pondering a seeding issue in prng. I was also on the receiving end of the "always pick first" several seasons ago in battlegrounds. Not, "pick first a lot", but tracked over the course of 100+ rounds

CosmicZen

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866540#Comment_2866540

I mean... You dont see people complaining about pulling the chase champ multiple times but would expect to see it happen aswell right? All we see are rhulk, hmonkey, ssupreme and torres mega dupes. I imagine someone pulling bastion for the nth time would be vocal about the RNG too...but i don't see that.

Asyalol

It is crystals are surely made so as not to give a new character.
The last 10 crystal titan that I opened since the start of this crystal, I have 8x Dazler and 2 x Hulk red.
But I must say thank you to Kabam, because of their completely fake system, I started playing much less and especially not to spend anything in the games.
Thank you Kabam

Cuber2906

in my last 10 titans , i got green falcon and double duped him , got jack duped 3 times , got dazzler sigs 3 times , and new bastion , and i dont even like bastion a lot .

doctorb

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2864896#Comment_2864896

Took me while to figure it out also 🤣

ERROR_00

Thought it Was only me lol.....I've been getting HM so much that I don't like him anymore 😂😂

captain_rogers

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2866538#Comment_2866538

one man's trash is another man's treasure ahh