3 4* skill awakening gems from 3 crystals

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Comments

  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    Ugh. No.

    It doesn't accumulate.

    If you roll a 6 sided die 6 times, your chances for rolling a 6 don't go up or down the more you roll it. It will always be 1 in 6.
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    Ugh. No.

    It doesn't accumulate.

    If you roll a 6 sided die 6 times, your chances for rolling a 6 don't go up or down the more you roll it. It will always be 1 in 6.

    Arg. I don't think you read what I said. The chances of rolling a six 6 times in a row is not 1/6. The chances of rolling a six after five consecutive sixes is 1/6.

    Take another look at my post. The 1/216 are the odds of rolling 3 sixes in 3 opportunities
  • FrostyFrosty Posts: 473 ★★★
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Zarakik wrote: »
    Dropfaith wrote: »
    1/6
    1/6
    1/6
    Really isn't that unlikely

    For 3 crystals overall chance is 1/216 so its very unlikely but in game it hapens all the time and its considered normal ?

    *facepalm*

    That's not how it works... you can't just add them together.

    If you roll a 6 sided die, you have a 1/6 chance to land on 6. No matter how many times you roll it. It will always be 1 in 6. Every. Single. Time.

    My god... what are they teaching in math nowadays?

    You can't just say you have a 1/6 chance when there are more variables. I agree that each time you do in fact have a 1/6 chance or rolling a 6 or in this case a skill gem.

    If the player from the start asked what are the odds of pulling 3 skill gems then it is in fact a 1/216 chance. If he asked what are the odds of pulling 3 gems of the same class then you cam ignore the first roll as it doesn't matter what it is but it now a 1/36 chance to repeat the initial roll. If he asked what are the odds of pulling a skill gem then it would he 1/6 every single time.

    It's true the odds will always be 1/6 every roll but the odds will be different to consider change when you consider multiple rolls. It's like flipping a coin will always be 50/50 but you can't say it a 50/50 chance to land on heads 10 times in a row
  • ZzyzxGuyZzyzxGuy Posts: 1,292 ★★★
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    ZzyzxGuy wrote: »
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    Ugh. No.

    It doesn't accumulate.

    If you roll a 6 sided die 6 times, your chances for rolling a 6 don't go up or down the more you roll it. It will always be 1 in 6.

    Arg. I don't think you read what I said. The chances of rolling a six 6 times in a row is not 1/6. The chances of rolling a six after five consecutive sixes is 1/6.

    Take another look at my post. The 1/216 are the odds of rolling 3 sixes in 3 opportunities

    My bad.

    I looked at it again after I replied. You're right.

    However, that's not applicable to the situation as the odds for him pulling 3 skill gems is still 1 in 6 3 times.
  • Thebgj01Thebgj01 Posts: 269
    My past 3 gems have been mutant and 2 science in a row
  • VulcanMVulcanM Posts: 664 ★★
    Zarakik wrote: »
    Dropfaith wrote: »
    1/6
    1/6
    1/6
    Really isn't that unlikely

    For 3 crystals overall chance is 1/216 so its very unlikely but in game it hapens all the time and its considered normal ?

    its not really that uncommon, getting three of the same champs in a row is however but if you really stop to think about it 1/216 isnt really that bad man. i can understand how you would feel if you already had the good skill champs duped, but again, its not a big deal
  • VulcanMVulcanM Posts: 664 ★★
    Dropfaith wrote: »
    ll3k3zvn1dor.png
    There's something far more rare statistically

    exactly man, i can still even see that as not that high as a statistic,given that theres not as many champs teo star champs as 3 and 4 stars, but thats a great example
  • TheOneAndOnlyTheOneAndOnly Posts: 690 ★★★
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    I think your choice of words is what is confusing. You should say probability, not chance.
    0yebbhcnqmuh.png
    The probability of rolling a dice three times and getting the same result (let's just say the number 3) is 1 in 216. Why? Because there are 215 other possible outcomes. For instance you could roll a 3, then roll a 3, and then roll a 5. Or you could roll a 1, then roll a 2, and then roll a 5. Either way the probability of rolling the same number on three rolls of the dice is 1/216.
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 6,554 ★★★★★
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    No you misunderstand me. To have opened 3 crystals and get the same skill class each time it is 1/216. Because the first crystal has 1/6, then the next has 1/6 and the next has 1/6. Probability of every one of them being skill is 1/216, because that’s how statistics works. 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6= 1/216

    However you are talking about something else. Clearly the chance of a particular crystal being skill is 1/6. That much is obvious and I understood that aged 8. But for each to be skill it’s much more unlikely because there are 216 different outcomes of the crystal each one of them being equally likely. Eg
    Skill, skill, skill
    Skill skill science
    Skill skill mystic
    Skill skill Tech
    Etc etc
  • IAmNotUrMomIAmNotUrMom Posts: 648 ★★★
    edited January 2018
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    No you misunderstand me. To have opened 3 crystals and get the same skill class each time it is 1/216. Because the first crystal has 1/6, then the next has 1/6 and the next has 1/6. Probability of every one of them being skill is 1/216, because that’s how statistics works. 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6= 1/216

    However you are talking about something else. Clearly the chance of a particular crystal being skill is 1/6. That much is obvious and I understood that aged 8. But for each to be skill it’s much more unlikely because there are 216 different outcomes of the crystal each one of them being equally likely. Eg
    Skill, skill, skill
    Skill skill science
    Skill skill mystic
    Skill skill Tech
    Etc etc

    I believe the example used by Hubris is called probability without replacement. If I am wrong though please remember I have not had a math class since my senior year of high school. I tested out of everything I needed for college. :)
  • LordNegrotronLordNegrotron Posts: 259
    LMAO this discussion has solely become about math and statistics rather than the actual issue. Guys, all in all, we’re all gonna get garbage pulls while Kabam continues to get paid. Both sides are right but refuse to mix each other’s answers in most cases. Yes, rolling skill 3 times would present a 1/6 chance individually per roll because each roll doesn’t influence the others. But on the grand spectrum, the odds of receiving the combination of the 3 skill when compared to all the other options of 3 results (i.e. 1 skill 1 science 1 tech, 2 mystic 1 mutant, 3 cosmic, 4 slaps to the face), the chances are significantly lower, but that low chance is the same for any 3 pulls you’d get because they’d all be equal. All the chances for anything are equal.
  • LordNegrotronLordNegrotron Posts: 259
    Now if you wanna talk true probability, what are the chances of any alliance not spending more than $8000 a month per person on this game reaching the top war tier?
  • BitterSteelBitterSteel Posts: 6,554 ★★★★★
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    No you misunderstand me. To have opened 3 crystals and get the same skill class each time it is 1/216. Because the first crystal has 1/6, then the next has 1/6 and the next has 1/6. Probability of every one of them being skill is 1/216, because that’s how statistics works. 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6= 1/216

    However you are talking about something else. Clearly the chance of a particular crystal being skill is 1/6. That much is obvious and I understood that aged 8. But for each to be skill it’s much more unlikely because there are 216 different outcomes of the crystal each one of them being equally likely. Eg
    Skill, skill, skill
    Skill skill science
    Skill skill mystic
    Skill skill Tech
    Etc etc

    I believe the example used by Hubris is called probability without replacement. If I am wrong though please remember I have not had a math class since my senior year of high school. I tested out of everything I needed for college. :)

    We're talking about different things hubris and I. He’s talking about a specific crystal and I’m talking about the probability of the event that all crystals give the same class. Probability without replacement is for example a bag of red and blue balls. Say there are 5 blue and 5 red. There’s a 5/10 chance to pull either a red or blue ball out of the bag, (1/2 but for the example it’s easier to say 5/10) if I pull a red ball out and don’t replace it i.e. leave it on the side, then in the next pull there is a 4/9 chance to get a red ball and a 5/9 chance to get a blue one.

    This isn’t how crystals work, it’s as if I put the ball back in. So 5/10 chance for a blue, I pick a red one and put it back. Next pull it is still a 5/10.

    Hope this explains it
  • KestrelleKestrelle Posts: 441 ★★
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    I think your choice of words is what is confusing. You should say probability, not chance.
    0yebbhcnqmuh.png
    The probability of rolling a dice three times and getting the same result (let's just say the number 3) is 1 in 216. Why? Because there are 215 other possible outcomes. For instance you could roll a 3, then roll a 3, and then roll a 5. Or you could roll a 1, then roll a 2, and then roll a 5. Either way the probability of rolling the same number on three rolls of the dice is 1/216.

    I hope you realize how ridiculous your semantics correction is. You write a lengthy post for why I should have said probability rather than chance, and even include a screenshot of the definition. Did you see the synonyms......."chance"
  • VulcanMVulcanM Posts: 664 ★★
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    Kestrelle wrote: »
    1/216 chance. Not that unlikely in the grand scheme of things.

    No, its always just 1 chance in 6. One pull never effects the next pull, so always the same odds

    It's all in the wording. Chances of pulling three in a row is 1/216. Chances of pulling a skill after two consecutive skill pulls is 1/6.

    I think your choice of words is what is confusing. You should say probability, not chance.
    0yebbhcnqmuh.png
    The probability of rolling a dice three times and getting the same result (let's just say the number 3) is 1 in 216. Why? Because there are 215 other possible outcomes. For instance you could roll a 3, then roll a 3, and then roll a 5. Or you could roll a 1, then roll a 2, and then roll a 5. Either way the probability of rolling the same number on three rolls of the dice is 1/216.

    I hope you realize how ridiculous your semantics correction is. You write a lengthy post for why I should have said probability rather than chance, and even include a screenshot of the definition. Did you see the synonyms......."chance"

    i think it was supposed to be slightly sarcastic and your'e over exaggerating
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