If you had 50 million Battlechips …

…which Arena Crystal would you buy?

Crystal for 2000 BC
Crystal for 10.000 BC
Crystal for 50.000 BC

I hoarded for so long and want to convert them to units.

What would you do? And what to expect ?

Thanks !

Comments

Syndicated

I hope you will get the 50k ones

Fit_Fun9329

@DNA3000 thanks a lot for your help. So, in your opinion, 50 million / 100k = 500 crystals are enough to even out the drop rates? I am so torn 😅

Chapman

@Fit_Fun9329 whatever you decide, this whole thread is people waiting to see what you got from your hoard of BC!!!

Please do share the results when they are in.

P.S. if you're still torn, maybe try putting it out as an actual poll and see how it goes in a vote.

Fit_Fun9329

Update: I think I decided to go with TB ones. I probably will open those 1000 crystals (not 500 ; is did a miscalculation) by today evening (CET). Quite nervous and sorry for building up the tension

Halley

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2905693#Comment_2905693

And so, how many units?

You made us nervous 😂

Fit_Fun9329

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2905710#Comment_2905710

Still a few hours to go. I will update this thread accordingly

Fit_Fun9329

Gentleman, i present to you: madness

Outcome of 1006 TB Arena Crystals are (for me) 84k units, 131 mio gold and ONE 6* punisher. 😊

Thanks to all who participated in this thread!

Now back to arena …

TikkaMasala

Dear Lord! Congrats! Wonder how many BC’s I’ve collected over the last 11 years…

HuskerCool

Congratulations

And thank you for posting the results

DNA3000

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2905779#Comment_2905779

Congrats: your unit haul was slightly lower than the statistical average, but the 6* Punisher makes up for it (if you care) as he's a very long shot (I have yet to pull him myself).

To answer your (now moot) question, if you want a very, very rough rule of thumb as to how much variance you'd expect to see from something like this, in other words, how likely are things going to "average out" here's the quick sketch way of doing that. There's a 15% chance for arena crystals to drop units (there are two different drops, the big and little one, but we'll ignore that for now to simplify things). So out of 1000 crystals, you'd expect 150 unit drops on average. But you're unlikely to hit the bullseye exactly. What's the likely range you'd expect to see. Well, without getting too deep in the weeds, take the square root of that expected value. SQRT(150) ~= 12. So you're likely to see 150 +- 12. 12/150 = 0.08, so you're likely to see the statistical average, plus or minus 8%.

As I said, this ignores things like there's actually two different unit drops, and it glosses over what "likely" means, so its a very rough estimate. But the statistical average would have been about 50 x 1840 = 92k and you actually got 84k, which is 84/92 ~= 0.913 or 91.3%. So within 8.7% of the statistical average. That's more or less within the range you'd expect.

If you had opened about 5000 UC crystals instead, the likely margin would have been closer to 4%, narrowing the expected range by about half. Same average, less variability. 25,000 regular crystals would have (likely) landed within about 2% of the average, a much narrower range.

WhatsGoodEnglish

With 50 million you definitely want to open the big ones. Anything under 20 million and you’re better off with uncollected or regular ones

Fit_Fun9329

@DNA3000 really appreciate the insights!

Little lower than average is fine. You win some, you lose some.

Regarding 6* punisher - I am very happy that I got him and hope you’ll get him soon, too. The drop rate is crazy low.

Chapman

Congratulations, that is a nice stack of units going into banquet!

Next target - 100Mil BC?

Fit_Fun9329

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2906021#Comment_2906021

This is something I will not achieve, servers will be shut down beforehand 😅

SirGamesBond

And here's me with no regards of big or small, open 2 crystals as soon as I hit 100k lmao. I saw the bcs as bonus, expected 0 and took whatever I got. In the end units drop comes closer to it's average.

GGs on your 50mill record.