Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

Zuko_ILC

MattScott wrote: »

Well the specifically offered crystals, for money tofay. No units, 19.99$. So anyone trying to say that’s a loophole. THIS IS A DIRECT, PAY WITH CASH, LOOTBOX

I'm sure you can reach out to Apple and ask not sure where that would get you though but it's still an option for those who want to.

GroundedWisdom

I'm sure Apple is completely aware of what they're doing. Considering they stated they were in talks with Apple in December.

DNA3000

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

I'm sure Apple is completely aware of what they're doing. Considering they stated they were in talks with Apple in December.

I think you are generally too certain about things you can't know with certainty. But the point to providing feedback to Apple is not just to inform them of what Kabam is doing, it is to inform them of your opinion of the situation. Apple cannot know how I or any other player of the game feels about Kabam avoiding or delaying publishing lootbox odds. As Apple is very likely to have made this change in order to be seen as benefiting their app store customers in the first place, voicing dissatisfaction directly at Apple isn't entirely meaningless.

Thatweirdguy

DNA3000 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

I'm sure Apple is completely aware of what they're doing. Considering they stated they were in talks with Apple in December.

I think you are generally too certain about things you can't know with certainty. But the point to providing feedback to Apple is not just to inform them of what Kabam is doing, it is to inform them of your opinion of the situation. Apple cannot know how I or any other player of the game feels about Kabam avoiding or delaying publishing lootbox odds. As Apple is very likely to have made this change in order to be seen as benefiting their app store customers in the first place, voicing dissatisfaction directly at Apple isn't entirely meaningless.

Right. Apple's intent seems to be getting in front of potential regulations they see coming and consumer protection in general. Telling them or asking them why that regulation does not apply here is a valid pursuit. Voicing any dissatisfaction with the lack of transparency is also helpful. But Kabam has clearly won this round. It is a big win for them with FGMC's being the main mechanism for getting new 5* champs now. Not revealing drop rates helps their sales.

GroundedWisdom

DNA3000 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

I'm sure Apple is completely aware of what they're doing. Considering they stated they were in talks with Apple in December.

I think you are generally too certain about things you can't know with certainty. But the point to providing feedback to Apple is not just to inform them of what Kabam is doing, it is to inform them of your opinion of the situation. Apple cannot know how I or any other player of the game feels about Kabam avoiding or delaying publishing lootbox odds. As Apple is very likely to have made this change in order to be seen as benefiting their app store customers in the first place, voicing dissatisfaction directly at Apple isn't entirely meaningless.

I wouldn't say it's meaningless to provide feedback. I was more speaking to the idea of "Notifying Apple". I doubt it's anything they're not aware of.

DNA3000

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

I'm sure Apple is completely aware of what they're doing. Considering they stated they were in talks with Apple in December.

I think you are generally too certain about things you can't know with certainty. But the point to providing feedback to Apple is not just to inform them of what Kabam is doing, it is to inform them of your opinion of the situation. Apple cannot know how I or any other player of the game feels about Kabam avoiding or delaying publishing lootbox odds. As Apple is very likely to have made this change in order to be seen as benefiting their app store customers in the first place, voicing dissatisfaction directly at Apple isn't entirely meaningless.

I wouldn't say it's meaningless to provide feedback. I was more speaking to the idea of "Notifying Apple". I doubt it's anything they're not aware of.

One reason for not being so certain is that Apple is not a person. Apple is a company, and the person who approved MCOC for release to the app store is just one human among many. They don't all know what all the others know, don't all think the same things, and aren't all infallible.

Take, for example, the security lock out in iTunes. You know, the security lock out in iTunes that will occasionally and invisibly lock you out of registering iMessage and other iCloud services? The one that no one in customer support or the Genius bar seemed to be aware of when I ran into it, and only discovered after escalating my call twice to a manager who discovered it from engineering, because that information wasn't currently well known throughout Apple, not even its customer support arm. The one that *still* doesn't seem to be widely known about yet.

Apple is a big place.

Kabam Miike

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

DNA3000

Kabam Miike wrote: »

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

Interesting.

Tonedef

Featured GMC’s have been determined to have an extremely low drop rate, less than 1% chance to get the champ you want. Math? Spend 36,000 units (120 crystals x 300 units each) and you should get a featured champ. Kabam, we all know the odds are 💩. It’s no secret! Just crunch the numbers and put us out of our misery please.

DTMelodicMetal

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

phillgreen

Wow. That is a guy with a lot of time on his hands.

Wardenclock

I don't know if it has been said, but injustice 2 published odds for getting champions in a recent update. For featured hero its 8%, but rarity of him also has a percentage. For example, getting a golden version (4 star mcoc equivalent) is approx 9%. You can check them yourselves.

The point is that motherbox can only be purchased with gems, which either can be earned or bought with real money. In addition to this, some people are getting depressed and stop spending or even quit.

I think I would never want them to be published, because we already know what they are. And let's be honest here, if they do, what can we (as a community) do about it?

Solswerd

Hearthstone was cited in many of the articles regarding Apple's new policies on loot boxes.....yet Hearthstone still has not disclosed their droprates either. I am guessing many companies are discussing their options with Apple.

Those who are really upset about this really should be contacting Apple, as others have stated. Apple controls the ultimate fate on all of this.

DNA3000

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

DNA3000

Solswerd wrote: »

Hearthstone was cited in many of the articles regarding Apple's new policies on loot boxes.....yet Hearthstone still has not disclosed their droprates either. I am guessing many companies are discussing their options with Apple.

Those who are really upset about this really should be contacting Apple, as others have stated. Apple controls the ultimate fate on all of this.

So far as I can tell, Hearthstone hasn't updated their game on the app store recently. Apple doesn't display precise update dates anymore, but Google Play shows the last Hearthstone update as being December 6, 2017.

It is important to reiterate, as often as necessary, that the guidelines document in question is the guidelines for developers to maximize their chances of getting an app approved by the app store approval process. It does not explicitly apply retroactively to apps already in the app store. When Apple makes app store policy changes that will retroactively affect apps already in the app store, they generally (but not always) state that separately in communication to the developers.

DNA3000

BitterSteel wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

It was the picture from reddit with community gathered drop rates

That's odd, because that picture has shown up in other threads before, including one I specifically commented on. As far as I'm aware, that data is also uncontroversial. Maybe someone reported it specifically for language content.

DNA3000

I won't repost what was removed by the moderators, but I will repeat what I said when this information first came out. The data seems consistent with a drop table configuration that looks something like this:

1 - 5* featured (1 entry)
2-3 - 5* non-featured (2 entries)
4-7 - 4* featured (4 entries)
8-18 - 4* non-featured (11 entries)
19-120 - 3* champion (102 entries)

The expected percentage distribution from this table would be:

5* featured - 0.83%
5* non-featured - 1.67%
4* featured - 3.33%
4* non-featured - 9.16%
3* champion - 85%

That's a pretty good fit to the crowd sourced drop data that exists out there.

As I mentioned previously, I don't expect Apple's policies to suddenly change anything dramatic for MCOC players. Most of the MCOC crystals have the kinds of odds that make it possible to crowd source the rough odds. Not every game is like that. I don't expect dramatic surprises, only refinements of what we already know. But I still think the requirement for full disclosure (where it is applicable) has benefits beyond just telling players the odds. It makes a statement that we the players *deserve* the odds more than the game companies reasons for not disclosing them.

DTMelodicMetal

DNA3000 wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

It was the picture from reddit with community gathered drop rates

That's odd, because that picture has shown up in other threads before, including one I specifically commented on. As far as I'm aware, that data is also uncontroversial. Maybe someone reported it specifically for language content.

I didn't look at the micro-text on the bottom right of the image, it contained a number of curse words and I was unable to remove the image by the time I noticed them. Here is the image with the bottom right comments removed:

@DNA3000 5,577 is a very large sample size but I doubt this sample meets the criteria of random sampling. Do you think there's much validity to these numbers?

GroundedWisdom

DNA3000 wrote: »

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

The comments contained profanity.

DNA3000

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

@DNA3000 5,577 is a very large sample size but I doubt this sample meets the criteria of random sampling. Do you think there's much validity to these numbers?

Assuming that sample size is unbiased - meaning people didn't just submit entries based on whether they looked "worth submitting" - that sample size is large enough to be statistically meaningful. Without getting into heavy duty math, let's just look at the 5* featured number. That number is very close to one in 120. It could be one in 119, or one in 125. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 100 or worse than one in 150 are pretty low. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 50 or worse than one in 200 are virtually zero.

If you're asking for my opinion on whether this statistical data gathering was done properly, I lean towards this data being valid. The data seems to lead to a conclusion that seems quite reasonable given how drop tables for MMOs are usually constructed and what smaller tests have indicated, and that result is difficult for biased data to move towards. Basically, I wouldn't bet my life this data is accurate, but I would personally feel comfortable operating on the assumption it was accurate unless or until something came along to contradict it.

unknown

This content has been removed.

DNA3000

CoquiFongo wrote: »

Does anyone else notice how this thread has fallen off of the first page even though it is commented on every couple of hours?

There's lots of other threads getting posted to, bumping this one down. As soon as you posted to it, it bounced back to the top for me.

Thatweirdguy

Kabam Miike wrote: »

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

This is interesting and gives some hope. The implication is that they are not finished sorting out compliance requirements with Apple as opposed to coming to a conclusion that they have complied. We may get our drop rates after all.

MattScott

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Kabam Miike wrote: »

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

This is interesting and gives some hope. The implication is that they are not finished sorting out compliance requirements with Apple as opposed to coming to a conclusion that they have complied. We may get our drop rates after all.

I imagine their conversation going a little something like this

Apple: you must disclose drop rates.
Kabam: but it isn’t a simple, equal percentage chance across users. It’s based on a proprietary algorithm which takes into account, total in game spend,alliance spend, and how long since the last purchase.
Apple: sounds like you’re *edited* your players.
Kabam: well how do we disclose that
Apple: let’s discuss further.

DTMelodicMetal

Assuming that sample size is unbiased - meaning people didn't just submit entries based on whether they looked "worth submitting" - that sample size is large enough to be statistically meaningful. Without getting into heavy duty math, let's just look at the 5* featured number. That number is very close to one in 120. It could be one in 119, or one in 125. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 100 or worse than one in 150 are pretty low. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 50 or worse than one in 200 are virtually zero.

If you're asking for my opinion on whether this statistical data gathering was done properly, I lean towards this data being valid. The data seems to lead to a conclusion that seems quite reasonable given how drop tables for MMOs are usually constructed and what smaller tests have indicated, and that result is difficult for biased data to move towards. Basically, I wouldn't bet my life this data is accurate, but I would personally feel comfortable operating on the assumption it was accurate unless or until something came along to contradict it.

It's been a while since I've had a class that covered different sampling procedures and how they're related to statistical power. Thanks a ton for your explanation, I'll be saving my units for deals that offer 5* shards or (ideally) 5* awakening gems from now on. Of the 100+ grandmaster crystals I've opened I've yet to pull a 5* champion. I haven't opened 100+ featured grandmaster crystals, and I'm going to keep it that way.

MSRDLD

Do we know if anyone has reached out to Apple about this? There are champion crystals for sale currently.

Ozzieont

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

unknown

This content has been removed.

Solswerd

DNA3000 wrote: »

Solswerd wrote: »

Hearthstone was cited in many of the articles regarding Apple's new policies on loot boxes.....yet Hearthstone still has not disclosed their droprates either. I am guessing many companies are discussing their options with Apple.

Those who are really upset about this really should be contacting Apple, as others have stated. Apple controls the ultimate fate on all of this.

So far as I can tell, Hearthstone hasn't updated their game on the app store recently. Apple doesn't display precise update dates anymore, but Google Play shows the last Hearthstone update as being December 6, 2017.

It is important to reiterate, as often as necessary, that the guidelines document in question is the guidelines for developers to maximize their chances of getting an app approved by the app store approval process. It does not explicitly apply retroactively to apps already in the app store. When Apple makes app store policy changes that will retroactively affect apps already in the app store, they generally (but not always) state that separately in communication to the developers.

Lol...I hadn't even realized that it's last update was 12/6 (I have auto-update on my iOS)...now I feel stupid.

Zuko_ILC

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

It was the picture from reddit with community gathered drop rates

That's odd, because that picture has shown up in other threads before, including one I specifically commented on. As far as I'm aware, that data is also uncontroversial. Maybe someone reported it specifically for language content.

I didn't look at the micro-text on the bottom right of the image, it contained a number of curse words and I was unable to remove the image by the time I noticed them. Here is the image with the bottom right comments removed:

@DNA3000 5,577 is a very large sample size but I doubt this sample meets the criteria of random sampling. Do you think there's much validity to these numbers?

I think so, 206 gmcs to finally get Hulk rags 0.4% for me. Odds are way too low. I would love 8% chance lol.

Also 4 non featured 5*s total vp, colossus, xbones, cable

So 1.9% chance there.