Apple Now Requires Game Developers to disclose odds on "Loot Boxes" [MERGED THREADS]

Vdh2008

Any comments on this?

https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16805674/apple-loot-box-app-store-games-odds-probability-disclosure

Comments

Thatweirdguy

Kabam Miike wrote: »

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

This is interesting and gives some hope. The implication is that they are not finished sorting out compliance requirements with Apple as opposed to coming to a conclusion that they have complied. We may get our drop rates after all.

MattScott

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

Kabam Miike wrote: »

Hey Folks,

Thanks for being patient with this. We are still working with Apple on this matter, and will share information with you all when we can.

This is interesting and gives some hope. The implication is that they are not finished sorting out compliance requirements with Apple as opposed to coming to a conclusion that they have complied. We may get our drop rates after all.

I imagine their conversation going a little something like this

Apple: you must disclose drop rates.
Kabam: but it isn’t a simple, equal percentage chance across users. It’s based on a proprietary algorithm which takes into account, total in game spend,alliance spend, and how long since the last purchase.
Apple: sounds like you’re *edited* your players.
Kabam: well how do we disclose that
Apple: let’s discuss further.

DTMelodicMetal

Assuming that sample size is unbiased - meaning people didn't just submit entries based on whether they looked "worth submitting" - that sample size is large enough to be statistically meaningful. Without getting into heavy duty math, let's just look at the 5* featured number. That number is very close to one in 120. It could be one in 119, or one in 125. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 100 or worse than one in 150 are pretty low. The odds that the actual drop rate is better than one in 50 or worse than one in 200 are virtually zero.

If you're asking for my opinion on whether this statistical data gathering was done properly, I lean towards this data being valid. The data seems to lead to a conclusion that seems quite reasonable given how drop tables for MMOs are usually constructed and what smaller tests have indicated, and that result is difficult for biased data to move towards. Basically, I wouldn't bet my life this data is accurate, but I would personally feel comfortable operating on the assumption it was accurate unless or until something came along to contradict it.

It's been a while since I've had a class that covered different sampling procedures and how they're related to statistical power. Thanks a ton for your explanation, I'll be saving my units for deals that offer 5* shards or (ideally) 5* awakening gems from now on. Of the 100+ grandmaster crystals I've opened I've yet to pull a 5* champion. I haven't opened 100+ featured grandmaster crystals, and I'm going to keep it that way.

MSRDLD

Do we know if anyone has reached out to Apple about this? There are champion crystals for sale currently.

Ozzieont

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

unknown

This content has been removed.

Solswerd

DNA3000 wrote: »

Solswerd wrote: »

Hearthstone was cited in many of the articles regarding Apple's new policies on loot boxes.....yet Hearthstone still has not disclosed their droprates either. I am guessing many companies are discussing their options with Apple.

Those who are really upset about this really should be contacting Apple, as others have stated. Apple controls the ultimate fate on all of this.

So far as I can tell, Hearthstone hasn't updated their game on the app store recently. Apple doesn't display precise update dates anymore, but Google Play shows the last Hearthstone update as being December 6, 2017.

It is important to reiterate, as often as necessary, that the guidelines document in question is the guidelines for developers to maximize their chances of getting an app approved by the app store approval process. It does not explicitly apply retroactively to apps already in the app store. When Apple makes app store policy changes that will retroactively affect apps already in the app store, they generally (but not always) state that separately in communication to the developers.

Lol...I hadn't even realized that it's last update was 12/6 (I have auto-update on my iOS)...now I feel stupid.

Zuko_ILC

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

BitterSteel wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

DTMelodicMetal wrote: »

(removed by moderator)

@DNA3000 You know your stats, what’s your opinion on this?

I'm not usually one to question moderation, @Kabam Porthos but you have left me with a bit of quandry here.

It was the picture from reddit with community gathered drop rates

That's odd, because that picture has shown up in other threads before, including one I specifically commented on. As far as I'm aware, that data is also uncontroversial. Maybe someone reported it specifically for language content.

I didn't look at the micro-text on the bottom right of the image, it contained a number of curse words and I was unable to remove the image by the time I noticed them. Here is the image with the bottom right comments removed:

@DNA3000 5,577 is a very large sample size but I doubt this sample meets the criteria of random sampling. Do you think there's much validity to these numbers?

I think so, 206 gmcs to finally get Hulk rags 0.4% for me. Odds are way too low. I would love 8% chance lol.

Also 4 non featured 5*s total vp, colossus, xbones, cable

So 1.9% chance there.

DNA3000

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

MattScott

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

Tonedef

It just makes no sense! I’ve read 💩 about patented algorithms, varying drop rates for Godly and trashy champs and different drop chances for people who pay2play... It’s been my experience that whether I’m currently p2p or f2p, the chances of getting what you don’t want or need is high. The odds are bad. We know it, and they know it. They obviously just don’t want us to definitively know how bad they are!

Zuko_ILC

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

As I've stated before (and this is all from my playing history so it's just my actual results) My mini account has a much higher rate of good pulls than my main account which I spend quite a lot on. I feel there are different rates for different people, do I know for sure....nope but 3 years of pulls from a mini to my main say so and thats all I have to go by. In the end until the release rates I don't know can only speak from my experience.

DNA3000

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Ozzieont wrote: »

This won't guarantee anything posting a drop rate , you still are going to get whatever comes out of spin imagine kabam posting a fomula how many crystals you have to open to get a blade is not going to happen , be real is a business

What makes MCOC so wildly different of a game than all other games that have published loot box drop rates?

Nothing. Except many people have suspected it’s not purely a flat % based system across all users. This would be interesting to find it it’s true.

This is also something not unique to MCOC. There are people who think this in every game with lootboxes. So far, those players are not batting a very high average.

Thatweirdguy

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

ViperKingV

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

MattScott

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

I highly doubt it is random. If a non spender, happens to purchase units seems like they ALWAYS get a good pull to try to lure them into spending.

DNA3000

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

DNA3000

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

MattScott

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

I follow the money. And there is more money in it for the company that owns it with manipulation.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

ViperKingV

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

MattScott

ViperKingV wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

They are actually EXTREMELY helpful and usually go with the motto “customer is always right” weird in this day and age.

ViperKingV

The confusion as to whether Crystal drops are determined by an unbiased RNG or a modified RNG comes from the customer service template answers players get when they have an issue or question about crystal drops. The letter explains that Drop rates for rare game items are determined by various in game factors with the purpose of offering a chance to win while also maintaining the rarity of those items. I have no idea if that’s true if it isnt then I have no idea why they would say it. My experience opening crystals for 3 years is that the results might be a Pure RNG sometimes but at I have seen things that only make sense if there are other factors influencing outcomes

GroundedWisdom

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

MattScott

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

I find this response suspicious.

DNA3000

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

ViperKingV

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

I totally agree. With you on that. Whether Kabam posts odds or the odds are less than 1% to get featured 5* Until someone shows me how I can increase those odds significantly I AI try to resist any urge to buy one.

MattScott

DNA3000 wrote: »

MattScott wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

The position "my theory is valid until it is proven otherwise" takes the word "theory" and pulverizes it, then sets it on fire.

The evidence I have to the contrary is two-fold. First, when we actually possess information about how a game engineers their lootboxes, in most cases manipulation of the kind most MCOC players believe occurs turns out to be both absent and impossible to implement. The rare cases where something remotely close to it exists, it was acknowledged to exist by the game operator. In no case has such manipulation been denied and then turned out to be occurring as far as I'm aware.

Second, most manipulation theories predict statistical variations so huge they would be trivial to detect, and none of those have been detected consistent with rigorous statistical analysis. So while it is impossible to prove no manipulation goes on, it is possible to prove that the vast majority of speculation of manipulation doesn't go on.

That qualifies as "preponderance of evidence." It makes any idea of manipulation an unsupported conjecture, and not a valid theory.

Pretty much the very definition of an invalid statistical conjecture is encapsulated in your statement "if you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by." In the world of statistics, this is called "guaranteed to be wrong."

Also, the term "truther" is generally used in the opposite sense you do. RNG truthers are the ones that do not believe the official statements about the randomness of lootboxes, and believe there is a conspiracy to deny them the truth about how the lootboxes actually work that is completely different from the official story.

Long and thought out. I read and agree with most of it. But do you really think a company, who was recently acquired would not make small “unprovable” changes to Crystal odds that have been algoryhtmically proven to increase profit?

It is more that I believe they cannot. This is extremely difficult to retrofit into an existing game. It was either there from day one, or it is highly unlikely to be there now.

Let me just ask you. Do you believe it is a flat %, and has always been so, for all players equally regardless of lifetime spend? Because every time you write a support ticket the URL arhat generates the email logs your account creation date, most previous purchase date, and total lifetime spend. Why would it do this, if it made no difference?

Actually, I don't know why they would do that because that's incredibly dumb if they are. There's no reason for that information to be sent back and forth in that way, and it can get them into trouble.

Now a question for you. The presumption to improving the crystal odds for players that spend more is to encourage players to spend more. In fact, the Kabam patent that some players keep mentioning also references this specific line of thinking. If you want players to spend more, incentivize spending by offering better crystal odds when you spend money in certain ways. However else one might feel about the practice, it is at least logical. But it is only logical if you tell players you are doing it. The patent itself explicitly states that the intent of the invention is to incentivize behavior and make certain loot boxes more valuable simultaneously. Two birds with one stone. And that incentivization requires a mechanism to tell players how to get the better odds, to make the incentive something the players are aware of. So the question, which I've asked many times over the last two years, is: how does an invisible incentive that you deny you're even doing actually work?

If such an incentive exists in the game, it is sufficiently subtle so as to escape detection by any reasonable analysis. I've looked. *Big* incentives would be caught. *Small* incentives could be small enough to evade detection. But such a small incentive is also too small to definitively detect by essentially all players. That's illogical. Making a small incentive that is too small to immediately detect and also denying even doing it seems entirely nonsensical if the point is to offer players an incentive.

For an app that makes 900k PER DAY. a small change in odds could be millions of dollars. It would be too easy, especially after a disappointing quarterly report, to manipulate odds that assure investors.

MattScott

Here is where i got that data.

https://thinkgaming.com/app-sales-data/9653/marvel-contest-of-champions/

Thatweirdguy

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Thatweirdguy wrote: »

There are RNG truthers out there who believe the official statements from Kabam stating that drops rates are not manipulated. That is fine if you want to believe that. Then you have the group who believe that they are manipulated. As long as Kabam fights to keep these drop rates away from consumers then the manipulation theories are valid. If you do not have info to the contrary, then your own anecdotal experience is what you will go by.

Conspiracy theories are not valid due to the absence of disproval. For that matter, to those who believe that the odds are manipulated, having them posted won't make a difference. Suspicion feeds off itself.

Yes but the fact that they refuse to release the drop rates certainly fuels those "conspiracy" theories. If it is truly RNG...then why not simply reveal them?

@DNA3000 you are correct I used the term truther incorrectly. I appreciate you pointing that out. I am an RNG Truther and until drop rates are released I won't be convinced otherwise

DNA3000

ViperKingV wrote: »

DNA3000 wrote: »

ViperKingV wrote: »

I asked Itunes if they were going to ask MCoC comply with the loot box & Gifting policies. they asked me to send a formal request for to Kabam and copy Itunes on the request and reply. apple’s loot box rules apply to any item that can be purchased with in-game currency or other transaction processed by Itunes. I’ve received 4 different answers. A lot of players believe that Kabam modifies crystal drop rates based on “in game factors” or that odds are increased if you use the (open 5) or (open 10) buttons some players believe that players spending patterns influence crystal drop rates. (We all have a player in our alliance who buys every crystal and is blessed with Supernatural luck
**As far as I know, none of this has been proven, but in my letters I asked if A Kabam Representative could Assure me that all crystals offered the same probability to each player And whether the result was determined by an unbiased RNG? I’ve received several replies but they all failed to give a clear response to the question. odds are useless if we can’t even be sure they remain constant for each crystal.

By which mechanism did you message Apple? The inappropriate app reporting mechanism? Or did you just shoot an email to a certain address?

I’m not sure who you are or why you want to know, unlike Kabam support Itunes support does provide s way to speak to a real person, and even crazier you can input your phone number and request a call back and a person calls you. Plus Plus Plus the person who calls you is being paid to help solve your itunes App issues.

That's a weirdly combative response to what appears to be a simple question. But the reason why I ask is because which communications channel you use matters in this case. If you just did the call me back thing, the response you got was from the normal Apple support channel. I don't think those people are empowered to do a lot in this case except document the exchange.