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Ascension Still Sucks and This Time I Prove It With Math

Kyusushui

That's right, I'm back again to yap about ascension. Why? Well, because I've gone insane (and also I think ascension is the worst addition that's ever been introduced to this game). However, don't let my insanity fool you, because while a few of my marbles may be loose, my cognitive functions are still capable enough to allow me to do basic math. Basic math which I will use as a defense for why ascension FRICKING sucks!

Now for a moment, let's set aside every other issue with ascension and let's just focus on one thing. Ascension acquisition. Currently, we have ascension level 1 and ascension level 2 available to us. Although, for a vast majority of players, ascension level 2 is a pipe dream. Because acquiring ascension resources is incredibly LUCK based. Actually scratch that, its not just incredibly luck based. It's ENTIRELY luck based.

Let's look at the base ascension pool. Thirty champions, available to everyone. That's a large pool of characters and as I think most of us have experienced by now, that large pool makes it really difficult to pull the champ you want. Let's say your favorite character is Sandman. You have him at rank five, awakened and sig 200. You want him ascended, just ascension level one for now. What are your chances of actually pulling him? Well that's easy, he's one of thirty champs in the pool so the natural thought would be 1 in 30.

WRONG!

That's where they get you, because that's not how probability works. Probability has no memory. In reality it's impossible to guarantee that you get a Sandman pull. However, you can improve your chances by opening crystals so then the question is just how many crystals are needed? Since a guarantee is not possible let's go to the next best thing, how many crystals do you need to open to have a 99.9% chance of pulling your sandman.

Well to calculate that number, we have to do something somewhat counterintuitive. Rather than using the chance to pull that sandman, we will look at the chance for you to pull any of the other characters. That chance is 29/30.

So that means if you open 1 crystal you have a 1 - (29/30) percent chance of pulling sandman. We can use this as a basis for the following formula.

Y(Chance of Pulling Sandman) = 1 - (29/30)^N where N is the number of crystals. This is the formula that will give us the chance of pulling sandman based on number of crystals opened.

So plugging in our values, 99.9% = 1 - (29/30)^N and solving for N we get a value of approximately 205.

That means that for you to "guarantee" an ascension for a champion you want. You would have to open 205 Greater Empowered Crystals. Not 30. 205! And that's only for ascension level 1! To get your character to Ascension Level 2, you need to pull that champion and then pull them 2 more times to get the necessary materials. Or you could just spend money and get yourself an ascension level 2 Knull.

The whole point of this is to show how absurdly out of the player's control it is to be able to ascend the champion they want. Upgrading the characters we want to play is at the core of MCOC and its insane that we aren't even allowed to do that anymore. Ascension is entirely luck based. That 205 number, sure you could pull the character before that, but you could also just never pull them. It doesn't matter how much content you complete, how skilled you are, how many hours you put in. It's entirely OUT OF YOUR CONTROL.

Now something you might say is, well that's how the game has always been. Pulling champions has always been luck based. However, ascension isn't about acquiring champions its about upgrading them which has never been entirely luck based. In fact ascension was advertised as an alternative to eight stars, a way for Kabam to introduce progression while making the roster's we've built still be meaningful.

But let me ask you this, how is ascension any different from 8 stars?

The basic game loop is completely the same. For a higher star level it would be

Pull new champ --> Upgrade Them to higher Level

With ascension its

Pull new ascension --> Upgrade them to higher level

For all intents and purposes, ascension is the same as a new rarity. You still have to pull this new character to have them at this new higher power level. It's the same thing wrapped in different packaging. Opening an empowered grace crystal is no different to opening an eight star.

ONLY ASCENSION IS WORSE! Because let's say we did get eight stars, at least then you would know that you only need to pull that character once. You pull Sandman as an eight star and its done. You can acquire rankup materials and get him up. Awakening gems and sig stones are a thing, so over time its within your control to upgrade that champion and make them stronger. With ascension its not like that at all! You pull sandman once, if you want to keep upgrading him, YOU NEED TO PULL HIM AGAIN! MULTIPLE TIMES! There's no alternative, no guarantee for you to keep progressing the character you love.

I swear I'm actually going insane, like how is this in any way better than 8 stars? Make no mistake I am not endorsing eight stars, I'm just pointing out that we got an unnecessary, rushed and worse alternative! If it were eight stars at least we could pull new champs at that higher power level. If it were eight stars at least we would have some more agency over our accounts. Like I don't know what else to say, Ascension is such a blatant money grab and an absolute cancer to the game.

Kabam isn't even hiding anymore. You know why we got ascension so early? Money. Why can't we get new characters ascended without spending thousands of dollars? Money. Why is ascensions entirely luck based. Money. It's all just dollar signs to Kabam.

They said they needed time to see how ascension fits into the game. That was a lie. They need time to milk as much money from players as they can.

Just make the game good please! Remove all the current ascension materials. Add Tier 3 primordial dust, have that be the only resource for ascension. Make max sig dupes drop Tier 3 Dust, make max sig dupes from titans drop even more Tier 3 dust and add Tier 3 dust to content. And you can keep selling Tier 3 dust to make more money than you could ever need. Everyone wins.

I still love MCOC, but I think that's why ascension frustrates me so much. Because I want this game to succeed. I want it to last another ten years, but its hard to enjoy other aspects of the game when something like ascension is not only in the game but the main focus.

I don't know what else to say. I'll probably be back in a few months to keep venting about ascension.

Comments

Rudolph_Raindeer

At least ascension makes it much easier to chose who to rank up :( My last +10 r4 and r5 have been ascended champs (I am in a prestige focused ally). However, it is a bit boring, since I will never use the majority of them. Seems like Kabam can release champs with no kit at all, and they will still be ranked by people like me as along as they are a2 (or even a1). Eliminates the excitement of new champs completely.

Bobs

But with an 8* Sandman you would have wasted all the resources you poured into your 7*.

Rudolph_Raindeer

That is how it always go. Currently all my non-ascended r4sig 200 champs are useless prestige wise. And before that my 6s champs etc.

Gordon_X602

This is alot of diagnosis pal🥲😂😂 [read til insane] ... But let me go on read📃

Kyusushui

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958851#Comment_2958851

I didn't even mention it but yeah, prestige is insane. The boost from ascension makes it so non-ascended champs, even if they are good prestige champs are pretty much meaningless.

Kyusushui

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958847#Comment_2958847

Well, eight stars would come at a higher level, I am assuming r4 or r5 seven star level. So ultimately it's the same. To rank them up would require new resources. Similar to how currently ascending takes new resources. The resources spent before than would be spent anyway if that makes sense.

Though again let me clarify, I am in no way advocating for eight stars.

Gordon_X602

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958846#Comment_2958846

That's actually scary simplicity there(ur first sentence) - to be real with u. If an ascended Captain Marvel (Classic) was in those "Empowered Crystals" ascended 7-star champ... U would get her to r5, u would invest all those tough catalysts, resources to get to dump that random ascended champion?

Gordon_X602

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958855#Comment_2958855

I'm going to be honest here... I don't want to restart leveling up a champion frankly. Like, since 1-, 2-, 3-,4-,5-s,6- & the current 7-stars.

Its like, I'm okay with a new rarity if the previous rarity have their own game mode or place to tell have purpose to level (like the Roli-cal SQ this month) .

4-stars have arena, 1-stars when their comes around in arena.

2-stars have Poker SQ (some months).

For the rest its like... Is there still a reason to ranking, leveling, champions.

There's reason why Marvel Games (MSF, FF,) don't have 8-stars, 6/7-star is the max. The game team is still figuring out a name to replace simply calling the next rarity of champions, "8-stars" (since it trigger a max idea of 10-stars coming in the future cause most of us might get the sense of what's the point). Yes we love the game, we love the Battlerealm but ascension 7-stars is delay for them to figure the next rarity name-style.

Next rarity can make some Summoners quite, take breaks or be even more frustrating to know they current roast is future destined to be (yes u know urselfs who always say 6-stars are irrelevant, useless not top tier, etc, etc).

Yes, the idea to spin crystals to get tokens for specific champions is well not liked by alot us, but u know🤷 . "Battlerealm was founded on spinning crystals lets put all specific champions tokens and class tokens in crystals Summoners will love this, " said some Summoner who pitched this idea & hopefully got a bonus.

I would have preferred if specific champions tokens were put in a specific store like the" Token store/realm." I would have liked to purchase a Sandman token with the exchange of 1 science-class-token while the cost of each Token increases each time u purchase Sandman-token (like Radiance or the good old Glory currency).

This my opinion.

pseudosane

It is luck based, but in general no different from 8*. We have access to more 7* ascended than we may have had to get to 8*. Remember, a lot of champs depend on sig, so we would be stuck in the loop of crappy champs till 8* sig stones became available.
While i'm not a huge fan of ascension, it atleast helps to some degree to preserve current champ usage.

In terms of prestige, yeah ascension is wayyy too OP, but in actual usage…. not entirely.

WeaponX2112

Needing to pull the individual champ is annoying enough, but then you need the class tokens too for A2. I've had enough Lizard tokens since the start, but needed the 10 science tokens. I had 9 yesterday and opened 25 token crystals and didn't get any science. Kabam needs to give us either let us buy class specific tokens(other than mystic which is available in the sigil store) or have a trade-in like they have for t4cc

Ragnarok13

the other piece with this is that locks them into a specific roadmap. Think about a few years from now. What are we going to be chasing? Only ascension materials. Rankup material, awakening gems, sig stone, 7* shards, and even titan shards will no longer feel rewarding. They will be like 4*s where the expectation is to max rank and sig them the day you get them from arena or a crystal. In that future champ acquisition wont matter since the power index will be r6 A4+.

They need to course correct soon or they will run out of stuff to sell. Not everyone is interested in the rng of empowered cryscrystals

Wicket329

One thing I would add to this conversation is that you mention awakening gems and signature stones as a thing in existence which make it so that a player only needs to pull a champion once, and that’s a reason why 8*s would be better than ascension. I think this is premature.

If Kabam had dropped 8*s rather than ascension, I don’t think anybody would reasonably expect us to already have 8* AGs available. We would still be in the phase of release where, if you want a champ awakened, you better hope you pull them again. You are right that AGs would eventually become available, both through sale and (probably later) through content, but it wouldn’t be until at least the July 4th sales, if not later.

Therefore, I would argue that the fact that we don’t have an analogue to that kind of choice in power bump is not immediately a problem. That doesn’t mean it won’t become one! But there’s no reason to believe that Kabam can’t roll out the equivalent item. For example, a class crystal which provides an A2 gem. You would have to have the A1 champ (the equivalent of pulling the 8*, to continue the comparison), but then you’d have the exact same autonomy as you would with a class AG.

So I get being concerned and cautious around this idea, but I don’t think it’s fair to say it’s already a problem. New rank up methods will require new items, but just because we don’t already have them doesn’t mean they aren’t coming, and it’s objectively way too early to already have them.

arifin74

There is day night difference between having a champion at 1 less level vs not having the champion at all. I play casual and with 3 years, almost have all the basic champions + titan champions ( 4/5 missing, and paid once). Would really hate to start over again for 8 stars, AG, sigs etc, may be would retire for good. All my ascended champions are either R1, or Ranked before ascension is a thing, they are not something that must have yet for my account.

Bobs

now do the math on what it would take for me to have a 99.9% chance of even pulling my first 7* Sandman from the 7* basic crystal.

WednesdayLength

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958901#Comment_2958901

This is the huge thing. People our here acting like we were able to not only choose which 7 star we got in the first few months of their release but also awaken and max sig them lmao

altavista

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958864#Comment_2958864

The thing for me is that a theoretical new 8R1 is already as strong as a 7R3-7R4 or so (‘m fuzzy on what the exact scaling would be) without needing to sink in any more resources. So you can test drive your new 8-star against current content (which is scaled to that level), without sinking in any resources.

A 7R1A1 Storm X would still feel inferior to what things are scaled to right now, and so would not a be good barometer of how that champion should perform. You now have to sink in ranking resources to get her to R2, R3 to get her to where an 8-star version would by default.

Right now, there are a bunch of 7R1A1 champions on my account that will stay as R1 that I’ll see no benefit without sinking in resources, compared to if I had pulled the 8-star version that would be strong by default.

pseudosane

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958914#Comment_2958914

which is true, but an unduped champ negates that. Sure, if you consider StormX he is fine, but an unduped Gentle? Nope. Korg? Kindred? Sasquatch? Mojo? all waste unduped 8*. This still keeps their value imo.

Ironamerica

They have to change how we get the specific champ tokens. I've pulled gorr Naturally 6 times since ascension came out. But can I ascend him? Nope because I don't haven't hit the 99.9% chance to get gorr from an empowered crystal enough times. My dust starts expiring tomorrow and I can't use any of it. But hey, be careful bringing up ascension materials. I was called entitled for asking for opinions

hungryhungrybbq

Casually glances over how the sig stone chase would start all over again with 8 stars.. "yeah sig stones are a thing.." are they? How easy do we think 8 star sig stones would be to acquire? Lol.. if Kabam had went that route instead, please rest assured that 8 star sig stones would be rare

Hell, I'm still chasing 7 star sig stones atm.. that will taper off soonish though, in this alternate system

As time goes on, there will ways to target champs for Ascension - there will likely be Nexus and then selectors, etc. Just as with other champion acquisition crystals/methods

But iirc there will be smaller pools moving forward.. as another way to target as opposed to opening a crystal with 300, 400 and on champs in it

Rudolph_Raindeer

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2958856#Comment_2958856

I have actually done that with High Evo and Dust (they are good defenders, yes, but I don't care about battlegrounds and AW, so it doesn't really matter for me).

jejunumjuice

Exactly, at least give people the opportunity to ascend the champs they want to ascend rather than completely basing it on luck.

WednesdayLength

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2959346#Comment_2959346

You dont get to choose which 7 stars you get save for very rare circumstances, this is no different

peixemacaco

People just are slow to understand the Ascension for 7 stars need to be on this pace, very slow, or we will have only a few champions impossible to beat.

Keep playing and one day you will be able to ascend.

Thanks Kabam 🥳

JESUSCHRIST

RNG

DNA3000

I heard someone mention math.

The original rarity system had a certain conveyer flow. A new champion would be released and there would be an initial monetized way to get them via featured crystals. Then there was the featured/titan system where the champ would live for a short period of time in a targeted crystal. Then it would go into the basic pool. The problem was that the primary way to target the champ after its limited run in featured/titan crystals was to go after then in the basic pool which over time got larger, which made the odds of pulling or duping any particular champ drop to very low levels.

Ascension isn't following that model. Instead, Ascension seems to be following a siloed model where different champs are being released in different "channels.' We have the super duper box, the empowered crystals, etc. So far I have pulled 32 separate ascension related drops,. of which 27 were unique, from about ten different sources, things like the Super Duper box, the Metamorphosis box, empowered crystals, etc.

I can actually compare this to 7* rarity roll out because I have complete data on my 7* pulls. My last Ascension related pull was in May 19th, which is 75 days into Ascension roll out. 75 days into the 7* rarity roll out I had pulled nine 7* champs, all of which were unique.

This is a fairly apples to apples comparison. I do not spend on champion crystals, now or then. My spending and playing habits are similar now to then, and both windows of time do not surround any mega sales that I spent a lot on. At the moment, I am getting ascensions faster than I was getting 7s. And that's in the early days of Ascension. The real statistical power of Ascension is going to kick in deeper down the road, when the 7* basic pool would have grown to much larger proportions (and I would be getting most of my new champs from the Titan pool) while Ascension is likely to be continuing to feed Ascension materials with smaller channels. In fact, I would imagine the players that will benefit more from the Ascension structure does not even include me, since I am a Titan hoarder. I almost never have to rely upon basic crystal odds to catch a champ.

As to the math in the OP, it is technically correct but also completely misleading. It is true that for a single player to have a 99.9% chance to pull one specific champ from a pool of 30 requires 205 pulls. But that seems to imply that we're all in that boat. If we all want to pull our favorite champ, we all have to expect to open 205 crystals. That's not the case. The average number of pulls is going to be 30. Yes, in a room full of a thousand players, one unlucky guy is going to open 205 crystals before they get the one specific champ they want. Everyone else is going to take a lot less.

And how realistic is it to calculate the odds of a player pulling one champ out of a pool? How many players want one, and only one champ from a pool? If the only thing that will make you happy is pulling one specific champ from a crystal out of a lot of possibilities, I don't think you're going to last long enough playing this game to reach 7* Ascension.

Last thing: before Ascension released, how was that player supposed to pull Sandman in the first place? From the Basic crystal? Wait for him to show up in the Titan? Their odds of pulling Sandman could be better now than they were three months ago, considering all possible avenues.

Toproller

Yep, ascension makes mcoc feel like one of those cheap gacha games where you need to pull like 8 of one character to start ranking them and using them in hard content.

GroundedWisdom

Personally I am of the mind they should have just released 8*s and taken the direct approach, but people complained about that, and Kabam wanted to allow people to build on their existing Rosters rather than start over. Ironically, we're starting over anyway. There's no avoiding the chase.

Since it's here now, I'm just accepting it and rolling with it

JESUSCHRIST

It's too luck based

If you are unlucky which is the majority of the players, you need to spend money to get A2 which is what Kabam planned all along

Legendrv

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2959613#Comment_2959613

we have not started over , we still have our sig stone , they r already ranked up ,duped imagine how difficult it be if u have a 8* where u need them max sig this is way better.

altavista

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2959725#Comment_2959725

Base pool - majority sitting at R1, and needs to be ranked up (I guess they don't need to be sigged up though).

Super Duper Pool - some may be ranked up already, some may still be at R1.

New champions (if you pay for it AND are lucky): Start as R1 and still need to be ranked up and sigged up.

This "already ranked up" argument only applies to champions that are (A) Ranked up champions that we already have, (B) Sigged up champions, and (C.) Lucky enough to be made eligible for Ascension. You think Kabam is gonna make most of our already ranked, highest tier champions available for Ascension anytime in the near future? I don't think so.

So yes - the majority of the time you're still starting over. In rare cases where you already had the champion ranked and they are now ascension eligible, you don't have to start over.

https://forums.playcontestofchampions.com/en/discussion/comment/2959531#Comment_2959531

That last bit is actually a good point. For new players who don't have one of the Base Pool champions, Ascension crystals do provide a new route of obtaining (and duping) the Base Pool champions.