Cutoffs for the new 5 Star Arena

Ahazu

Hey, what do you think will the cut be, to get in the pool of the top 150?

Comments

Stara99

38 million

69 Million

At least 20

Since its only top 150 I'm assuming 60M scores, so if you aren't planning on spending $800 on recharges probably best to stop at 12M milestone

imnoone

Dropfaith wrote: »

If you have to ask you aren't ready

That's the best answer.

BUZZdog3000

5.68 billion

Dizastar

I don't think we will get good numbers for the first month or so. I feel the first one will be super high, round two is a toss up between higher or lower from those trying to dupe or mad they landed at 151-200. Then depending on the next champ, it will still be high but slightly lower possibly.. it will take a little bit for it to level out and get solid predictions IMO... but yeah, the best answer is above. I am not ready either.

Ahazu

Dropfaith wrote: »

If you have to ask you aren't ready

Senseless answer, as the other answers show, its a high dicersity: 20-69 predicted here. 40m or so and i would consider it, if it goes double or even more its just not worth the Units.

Any other predictions?

DNA3000

Dropfaith wrote: »

If you have to ask you aren't ready

This is a good answer, but there's another one equally true: the cut off will be whatever the top 150 decides it will be.

Calling the cutoffs a "cutoff" implies something that isn't true: that there was hypothetically a score you could reach that would guarantee you'd be in the top 150. That's obviously false: if 200 people aimed for that score at least 50 would fail.

When we are talking about fifteen thousand players out of one hundred fifty thousand players reaching the basic top 10%, the idea of a cutoff is a reasonable lie: if you had pushed to that score you would have probably made it, because the number of players involved is large enough to "hide" one more player. But when we are talking about the top 800, or top 400, or top 150, the notion of a cutoff is far more arbitrary. If the 150th person scores 27 million you might say the cutoff is 27 million, but if that person thought anyone was remotely close to him he'd just push harder.

In the current featured 4* arena, 800 players get the featured. But less than 1200 even try seriously, because they all know what the likely scores are that will beat their competition, because its the same 1200 guys every time, for the most part. When it comes down to 150, no one will want to be 151. If you even think you will be, you will push harder. That will make the cutoff less about what score was necessary, and more about what the consensus guess was as to how hard to push. The people who guess wrong, will in effect set the cutoff.

And here's the rub. If you aren't among the top 1000 grinders or so, your guess is worthless. If you are, you won't be posting your guess. So by definition, the outside speculation is mostly just speculation. I've studied arena scores for two years, and I have only the vaguest guesses until I see the arena run at least a couple times.

Ahazu

@dna3000:
I get your Point. I am following the „cutoffs“ a long Time too and my predictions were very close mostly. This Time we have to think different. I agree too. But i dont think its impossible to guess a number thats about +- 10 m.

So i was thinking, how many of this big Wales are out there to spend Units for refreshing the 6 Stars. Because honestly this Time the „normal hardcore grinders“ are out, because they can not compete with 6 or 12h cooldowns. The wales will rule this. I was just thinking how many of this big Wales are out there and how many will go for it. I think 10k units will be the least you have to invest. But if its double or more, im out

Ahazu

So said, lets say 50% of the top 10 alliances go for it hardcore. Thats the 150 People there. What could it take to compete.... hmmmmmmmm

JOHNOSA1995

26 mil

DNA3000

Ahazu wrote: »

@dna3000:
I get your Point. I am following the „cutoffs“ a long Time too and my predictions were very close. This Time we have to think different. I agree too. But i dont think its impossible to guess a number thats about +- 10 m.

To be frank, it is one thing to make good predictions with a lot of data. But when they changed the arena structure everyone's predictions went out the window. A lot of people claimed to be able to predict accurately, but no one was able to put those predictions on the table: they were only claiming post dictions until several weeks went by. I actually posted all my prediction when the arenas were changed, and those tended to be within 25% of the mark which I consider pretty good for a new arena with no past data, but the arena was not perfectly predictable by anyone, even I had a couple wide misses.

Here's the really big problem: neither you nor I have ever had, and especially recently do have, the data on the scoring ability of the top 150, at least assuming we're getting our data the same way: the occasional anecdote told to us and the Reddit self-reporting. Those people tend not to self-report, which means even while we have an idea what the top 800 were doing collectively, the actual top 150 have been almost invisible for the past year or more. We don't know what they are capable of, when they think they actually have to push hard. They've been cruising at the top of the top of the featured 4* for a long time without the need to put the pedal to the floor.

I *think* they'll collectively do about 27 million. But if you ask me what they *could* do if they wanted to, I think that number is above 40 million. And anyone who can accurately predict that psychology should become a fortune teller.

Ahazu

To make it clear. This Time it is not about grinding, as we used to. Because with refeshing my best Team i can do 150k Points or more in 1 round. Thats 15 m for 100 rounds. And no cooldown, so you just sit there and make 45m easily in 6hours. So the question for any prediction is only: how much money are they willing to spend for killmonger.

Of course hard to guess, but we have one clue: the featured crystals for 300 units are out there too. Let’s say you are willing to do 300 rounds. That’s 12k units, if you play with 1x5star rank5, 1 x 5 Star Rank 4 and 1x 6star (I DO NOT count the top 30, because some of them may have 2 or 3 6stars). So...... 12k Units is about 40 of those crystals. A big wale may say: why should I spend 6 hours or more, if I can just buy crystals... of course the odds are low, but a whale may buy 100 crystals ....

Dexman1349

The good news is that there is now ~200 fewer people in the 4* featured arena, so the theory is the cutoff scores for that will *hopefully* go down...

Ahazu

So let’s break it down, how many units could Killmonger be worth for the top150 😁

Primmer79

Ahazu wrote: »

To make it clear. This Time it is not about grinding, as we used to. Because with refeshing my best Team i can do 150k Points or more in 1 round. Thats 15 m for 100 rounds. And no cooldown, so you just sit there and make 45m easily in 6hours. So the question for any prediction is only: how much money are they willing to spend for killmonger.

Of course hard to guess, but we have one clue: the featured crystals for 300 units are out there too. Let’s say you are willing to do 300 rounds. That’s 12k units, if you play with 1x5star rank5, 1 x 5 Star Rank 4 and 1x 6star (I DO NOT count the top 30, because some of them may have 2 or 3 6stars). So...... 12k Units is about 40 of those crystals. A big wale may say: why should I spend 6 hours or more, if I can just buy crystals... of course the odds are low, but a whale may buy 100 crystals ....

Some whales already have 9+ 6*. That will help

Ahazu

9 + ??? Wow, how do you know that

Well I do not count them, because this group will just refresh 3 of them all the time for 60 units, they will not grind with 12 hour cooldowns. Those will be definitely in the top 10-30. I try to predict the other 120.....

Ahazu

27-40m was a good one, any other guesses?

Stara99

If you don’t have a huge roster then you can’t compete. People like verygoot has 83 5*. So if you don’t have a huge roster, grind for 18 hours a day, refresh with a ton of units then you don’t have a chance. Like @Dropfaith said. If you need to ask then you aren’t ready.

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Palanthrax

Honestly, my gut feeling is >= 50m. The biggest whales have 3 or more 6* champs, due to buying FGMCs and duping 5*s over and over. There are more than 150 of these whales in the game.

These guys can afford to refresh their top 3 6* champs for 60 units a time and rack up 3x the number of points equivalent 5* champs would give.

My advice to anyone considering doing this arena is, if you haven't got 2 or 3 6* champs already, or are not prepared to use units to refresh your champs, then you haven't got a prayer of making the top 150.

This arena is a spending competition designed for Kabam's biggest whales, that's why the beneficiaries are so few. I'll be going for milestones in the 4* arenas.

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Deadly2016

the answer 'if you have to ask youre not ready' for the top 150 is the best youll get.
the real question for most of us grinders is how much we need for the top 10% and can we get there while still grinding in the featured 4*.
if so, do we have the chance for 10% 5* and top 800 in featured 4* or is it better to go top 10% in 5* and top 10% in basic+featured 4* to max our rewards in milestone and 5* shards.
and with that many variables, spenders, participation in the 3 arenas, the shift in focus of the players... i dont see anyone doing a serious prediction even for the top 10% or top 800.
we dont even know yet what rank the champs need to be to even keep the streak in the 5* arena going (is it r3/r1 like in 4* or higher like r4/r2 for 4*/5*), that allone can mix up allot. i can grind for top 800 in featured, but im not playing long enough to have the amount of t1 alphas to use all my 5* in the 5* arena if i need r2+, most of my points come from allot of grinding with my 4*s r3. if i cant use them in the 5* arena they remain for the basic/featured 4*.
id say we will see a spike in the start and a settling down 1-2 weeks after the featured blade crystal is out (and everyone spent the 5* shards they hoard right now) with everyone setting up for the new format.

BrutalMira

No need to grind if u have feautured crystal ang get him and for me just let see the round 1 of 5* arena if how many millions will be qualified.,,,

A_Noob_Is1

100 quadrillion

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RagamugginGunner

IF you're asking for top 150 you can't get it. The real question is top 10%. That number is what actually matters to all but about ~400 players who are going for top 150. I can get 6M in the featured 4* without really trying to comfortably get top 10% so I'd guess that it'll be at least 9M in the featured 5* if not more.