Has this happened to anyone?

This is the weirdest thing that happened to me:
A week ago, I opened a 4 star crystal and got a Daredevil Classic
A few days ago, I opened another 4 star crystal and duped my Daredevil Classic
Today, I opened another 4 star crystal and got ANOTHER Daredevil classic!!!
Has anything like this ever happened to you?

Comments

Etaki_Lirakoi

Yes actually, I got 3 Moonknights in a row a while back, consecutive 4* shard crystals.

Primmer79

Sold my 4* hulk buster to open a 5*. Opened a 5* hulk buster. next 4*? hulkbuster.

TheHoodedDormammu

Etaki_Lirakoi wrote: »

Yes actually, I got 3 Moonknights in a row a while back, consecutive 4* shard crystals.

well, im getting another 4 star crystal soon. Lets see if I get another Daredevi Classic!

TheHoodedDormammu

Primmer79 wrote: »

Sold my 4* hulk buster to open a 5*. Opened a 5* hulk buster. next 4*? hulkbuster.

that really sucks

unknown

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Rogue42

Pulled The Hood back to back.

silverseraph

the algorithm uses location to produce higher chances in certain champs at certain times, like you know your 4 rocket raccoon 2 stars in a row you got while sitting in your basement and then the 3 xfdp you got at your old condo in only 5 phcs. Lol it seems like it is a conspiracy, but alas no one can prove it :P No but really; I am interested at the odds of this happening since i seen many funny openings but wouldnt be surprised if its just being kinda lucky sorta? in a way?.

GQuantao

Last year, I sold my 4* IP, Iron Fist, and Deadpool XF, for 5* shards- which turned into Antman. My next two 4* draws? Iron Fist and Deadpool XF. I also sold a 3* Groot that same day, my next 4* after IF and DPXF was Groot.
RNG my A-- (donkey)

unknown

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A_Noob_Is1

pulled back to back iron mans

Goose_81

In two years of playing I never got classic DD as a 4*. The other week a finally got him, couple days later when 6* came out grabbed his as a 6*, and duped my 4* an hour later.

GroundedWisdom

I pulled the 2, 3, and 4* versions of Guillie all in the same span of time a while back. It happens. More rare to pull back-to-back, but not impossible. The computer doesn't take into account what you pull before. It just generates an outcome.

Kabam Miike

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

fabbass

Kabam Miike wrote: »

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

Hey Mike doin quick maths here, the odds are so low that I will check it out if its not a bug (0,0000000064% chance) being very conservative. The chance of being a bug in the algorithim is higher for sure.

GroundedWisdom

Actually, that's not how the odds work. It's not additive or multiplicative. Let's say, if there are 60 Champs in the Crystal, you have a 1/60 chance of getting one specific Champ (0.02%). It's the same chance every Crystal you open. Each Crystal is a separate generated outcome. It's not increased or decreased by what you draw previously.

Minion_of_Doom

Kabam Miike wrote: »

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

And he/she didn't quit his/her job? Sorry

Speeds80

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

SpiritOfVengeance

I actually got gamora once as a brand new champ 4 star then starting about 2 weeks later I kept pulling gamora from a premium once and then the rest from 4 star crystals until she was sig 99. Worst experience ever.

CoatHang3r

Still waiting to dupe my dd after years and every champ in the crystals

fabbass wrote: »

Kabam Miike wrote: »

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

Hey Mike doin quick maths here, the odds are so low that I will check it out if its not a bug (0,0000000064% chance) being very conservative. The chance of being a bug in the algorithim is higher for sure.

Are those the current odds or the odds at the time it happened? If it happened over a year ago before 26 more champs were in the pool then the odds are far greater. The odds are even greater if it happened two years ago.

@Speeds80 You have the source for that? I think the interpretation of what was communicated is off.

TheDemon

CoatHang3r wrote: »

Still waiting to dupe my dd after years and every champ in the crystals

fabbass wrote: »

Kabam Miike wrote: »

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

Hey Mike doin quick maths here, the odds are so low that I will check it out if its not a bug (0,0000000064% chance) being very conservative. The chance of being a bug in the algorithim is higher for sure.

Are those the current odds or the odds at the time it happened? If it happened over a year ago before 26 more champs were in the pool then the odds are far greater. The odds are even greater if it happened two years ago.

@Speeds80 You have the source for that? I think the interpretation of what was communicated is off.

Even if there were only 50 champs in the crystal at that time the odds of it happening are amazing: 0.00000000000128.
Like dude should have bought a lotto ticket amazing.

GroundedWisdom

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

chev327fox

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Actually, that's not how the odds work. It's not additive or multiplicative. Let's say, if there are 60 Champs in the Crystal, you have a 1/60 chance of getting one specific Champ (0.02%). It's the same chance every Crystal you open. Each Crystal is a separate generated outcome. It's not increased or decreased by what you draw previously.

Actually that's not true at all. Your right that the odds of the crystal are always the same (they are independent thus the odds of the next pull is not changed by the first... but you CAN calculate the odds of pulling the same exact champ 5 times in a row assuming you know the odds of pulling that champ (its really simple math actually... if you like I would do it out long form for you?).

Here is a post that explains it in a very simple way that might help you:

Primmer79

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

I think what he is saying you can statistically come up with a number for the odds of two separate events happening, if given the odds of both events. And you're saying thats not possible. Its a stats question, not a game question.

His second paragraph is the game comment

GroundedWisdom

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

I think what he is saying you can statistically come up with a number for the odds of two separate events happening, if given the odds of both events. And you're saying thats not possible. Its a stats question, not a game question.

His second paragraph is the game comment

Yes I was talking about the odds themselves. You could calculate the statistical probability of anything, really. As with anything in life, it has a randomness that doesn't always make sense on paper. Lol.

Kabam Commish

Kabam Miike wrote: »

There is somebody on the team (who you might occasionally see in the Forums) that pulled Black Panther (the original) from a 4-Star Crystal 7 times in a row. It's statistically very uncommon, but it can happen!

This is a story that gets told around the office a lot and gets bigger each time. It was actually the first 9 4-stars I acquired out of 24 were Black Panther. Not 7 in a row, but I did have some consecutive BPs. At the time we checked and I was one of the fastest (top 10) to a max sig 4-Star based on number of 4-Stars to achieve it.

Notes:

* This was before Black Panther was buffed. (Increased bleed stuff)
* You couldn't link a special 2 out of his medium or light attack because of the start up animation (later fixed)
* This was before Deep Wounds mastery existed.
* You can tell by my avatar who I really wanted as a 4-star.
* I still don't have a 4-Star or 5-Star Iron Man T_T
* I still work here.

Primmer79

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

I think what he is saying you can statistically come up with a number for the odds of two separate events happening, if given the odds of both events. And you're saying thats not possible. Its a stats question, not a game question.

His second paragraph is the game comment

Yes I was talking about the odds themselves. You could calculate the statistical probability of anything, really. As with anything in life, it has a randomness that doesn't always make sense on paper. Lol.

Completely wrong... if you have two specific odds for specific (unrelated) events, there is an acceptable mathematical way to represent the odds of both events happening. Not to mention true random cannot happen in programming.

Deadbyrd9

I got guillotine up to sig 99 by only pulling her from phcs. Right after she got to 99 I pulled her from a 4* crystal the same opening

GroundedWisdom

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

I think what he is saying you can statistically come up with a number for the odds of two separate events happening, if given the odds of both events. And you're saying thats not possible. Its a stats question, not a game question.

His second paragraph is the game comment

Yes I was talking about the odds themselves. You could calculate the statistical probability of anything, really. As with anything in life, it has a randomness that doesn't always make sense on paper. Lol.

Completely wrong... if you have two specific odds for specific (unrelated) events, there is an acceptable mathematical way to represent the odds of both events happening. Not to mention true random cannot happen in programming.

RNG is a quasi-random. Yes. In the case of the 4/5* Basics, there's no drop rates, so it's closer to a true random.
When did I argue that you couldn't calculate it? I said it doesn't always make sense. Hence "How is it possible to pull the same Champ 3 times?". I feel like this is a needless argument.

Primmer79

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Primmer79 wrote: »

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Speeds80 wrote: »

Gw, this is the strangest theory you keep pushing in forums, there is a whole form of mathematics called statistics, it is made for working out the odds of something happening, the odds of anything can have a percentage happening value worked out, there are theoretical anomalies for rng or cumulative odds. And while you are correct in saying that rng is not affected by previous openings. but if the question is ‘what are the odds of this happening’ a value can easily be assigned and in this case the value is a very simple equation. Which of course is purely theoretical but it is still acknowledged by 99% of people as a statistical value. Not sure why you continue to push this.
On a side note, support staff have acknowledged that there is supposedly something in the algorithm which raises the odds to duplicate champs and was designed to aid people in getting dupes (just bad luck when they are bad champs) but I had it happen with both good and bad champs (magneto and sw to name two opposite ends of the spectrum) then again the support staff aren’t usually the most reliable source of info, but it would be very strange for them to know about this algorithm if it didn’t exist

The odds are the same for every opening. The statistical probability in the example I gave is literally 0.02% everytime. You could literally roll the same Champ 100 times in a row. Yes, it becomes more rare the more times in a row, but not impossible. RNG does not take into account the previous outcomes. I'm not entertaining the conspiracy theory that pulls are altered based on previous ones. If you're using responses from Support as valid argument, I'm afraid you're not aware of how valid that argument is. Lol.

I think what he is saying you can statistically come up with a number for the odds of two separate events happening, if given the odds of both events. And you're saying thats not possible. Its a stats question, not a game question.

His second paragraph is the game comment

Yes I was talking about the odds themselves. You could calculate the statistical probability of anything, really. As with anything in life, it has a randomness that doesn't always make sense on paper. Lol.

Completely wrong... if you have two specific odds for specific (unrelated) events, there is an acceptable mathematical way to represent the odds of both events happening. Not to mention true random cannot happen in programming.

RNG is a quasi-random. Yes. In the case of the 4/5* Basics, there's no drop rates, so it's closer to a true random.
When did I argue that you couldn't calculate it? I said it doesn't always make sense. Hence "How is it possible to pull the same Champ 3 times?". I feel like this is a needless argument.

scroll back. someone gave a rough calculation that i believe was just exaggerating saying it had a very very small chance, and you started arguing that they cant be additive or multiplied.

mum_m2

GroundedWisdom wrote: »

Actually, that's not how the odds work. It's not additive or multiplicative. Let's say, if there are 60 Champs in the Crystal, you have a 1/60 chance of getting one specific Champ (0.02%). It's the same chance every Crystal you open. Each Crystal is a separate generated outcome. It's not increased or decreased by what you draw previously.

you're actually wrong here. It's probability just like flipping a coin. you got a 50% chance of landing heads, but what are the chances of you flipping the coin heads twice in a row. it's 25%. and three times 1/8th, etc